Even without Bob Baffert, Kentucky Derby 2024 boasts star power worthy of the roses

The transfer portal may be all the rage in college athletics, but not in horse racing. Not this Kentucky Derby anyway.

In year three of his Churchill Downs suspension, trainer Bob Baffert isn’t in Louisville. And neither is his top 3-year-old, Muth, all because the colt’s owner refused to transfer his impressive horse to an eligible trainer.

That’s why Amr F. Zedan is keeping his winner of both the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby out of this year’s Kentucky Derby in favor of the Preakness Stakes on May 18 in Baltimore.

That’s not to say that this milestone of a Derby lacks star power for Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. post time. In fact, Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Fierceness and Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone have shown best-in-class potential in their Derby prep races, placing the duo atop the morning-line odds board, with a bit of distance back to the third choice, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom.

Fierceness won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 lengths, beating Muth in the process. After a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes, his 2024 debut, the son of City of Light rolled to a jaw-dropping 13 1/2-length triumph in the Florida Derby for two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole.

Fierceness isn’t the biggest horse, so his No. 16 post position may work to his advantage. He was close to the pace in the Juvenile and wired the field in the Florida Derby, so the guess is he will be pressing probable early leaders Track Phantom, Dornoch and T O Password on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Sierra Leone has a completely different running style. Trained by Chad Brown, the son of Gun Runner balked at the Keeneland starting gate for the Blue Grass, dropped back behind the field, then rallied with an impressive surge to catch and pass Just a Touch by a length and a half at the finish line.

Sierra Leone is a $2.3 million purchase with experienced racing owners, so you know he has the pedigree. Brown did not appear worried about the colt’s gate behavior in Lexington and Sierra Leone did not need a fast early pace to win the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds. Sierra Leone’s only loss in four starts came by a nose in last year’s Remsen, while Fierceness has finished third and seventh in two of his five races.

Trained by Brad Cox, Catching Freedom has shown improvement in each of his starts. And his 5-furlong work in :59 1/5 last Saturday at Churchill drew plenty of positive reviews for Cox, whose Mandaloun was declared the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner after Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified for a substance banned on race days.

Both Brown and Cox have multiple shooters. Brown is also starting Seth Klarman’s Domestic Product, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby. Cox is also starting Blue Grass runner-up Just a Touch. Both figure to be factors in the Derby outcome.

Domestic Product’s races have featured slow pace scenarios, one that isn’t likely Saturday. Just a Touch is lightly raced but held tight to the quick Blue Grass fractions and is the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, off to a hot start at stud.

Trained by Louisville native Whit Beckman, Honor Marie is coming off a second-place finish to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby. He turned in a bullet :59 1/5 work over 5 furlongs last Friday at Churchill and has looked good in his gallops.

Then there is the Japanese colt Forever Young, unbeaten in five races, including the Grade 2 UAE Derby. Yet T O Password earned better marks when the two invaders worked Tuesday at the track. Though many believe that a Japanese starter will one day win the Kentucky Derby, that day has yet to arrive.

There are plenty of sentimental stories in this year’s Kentucky Derby, as well.

Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up West Saratoga’s Larry Demeritte is the Derby’s first Bahamas-born trainer as well as a cancer survivor. The 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas has his 50th Derby starter in Arkansas Derby runner-up Just Steel. Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner Resilience is trained by Bill Mott, who won the 2019 Derby with Country House. Mott’s son Riley and wife Megan lost their 2-year-old daughter Margot to cancer in January.

There are also the usual question marks. Endlessly has won five of six starts, but has never raced on dirt for trainer Mike McCarthy. Stronghold won a thrilling Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, but the California crop has not performed well in recent Derby years without Baffert. Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch has been battling hoof problems.

Churchill Downs is also featuring its new $200 million paddock. And after last year’s spate of equine deaths cast a cloud over Derby week, the track worked with HISA to alter the composition of the racing surface, improve maintenance equipment and increase oversight.

The Baffert controversy continues as an unavoidable storyline, but it’s still the Kentucky Derby. The 150th Kentucky Derby, in fact. And a star will be born at horse racing’s premiere event. That hasn’t changed.

Who should you bet on in the 2024 Kentucky Derby? Here’s who the experts are picking.

Kentucky Derby betting guide: How to read the odds, understand the lingo and bet smart

How 2023 Kentucky Derby horses have run on sloppy or wet tracks

Here’s who owns every 2024 Kentucky Derby horse and how they amassed their fortunes.

Here are the long shots to bet who could beat the favorites in Kentucky Derby 2024