ESPN significantly changes predictions for Notre Dame following awful loss
Last week it appeared despite early turbulence, that everything was at least pointed in the right direction for Notre Dame, who had won three-straight games and had a favorable schedule coming up.
Then Stanford, who hadn’t beaten an FBS opponent in over 12 full months, came to South Bend and handed the Irish one of their worst losses in recent memory.
Obviously things are not all OK after this for Notre Dame, who now sits at 3-3 overall and having trips to unbeaten Syracuse, and one-loss USC remaining while unbeaten Clemson is due in South Bend the first weekend of November.
ESPN updated their Football Power Index with the latest results and Notre Dame understandably fell.
How does FPI see the Irish faring in the second half of 2022?
Let’s just say the computers were maybe even more unimpressed with Notre Dame against Stanford than Fighting Irish fans were.
Oct. 22 vs. UNLV
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Week 8 vs. UNLV
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 95.3% (Up 0.2% from last week)
Oct. 29 at Syracuse
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Week 9 at Syracuse
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 44.2% (Down 12.0% from last week)
Nov. 5 vs. Clemson
Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Week 10 vs. Clemson
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 29.9% (Down 5.1% from last week)
Nov. 12 vs. Navy (Baltimore)
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Week 11 vs. Navy in Baltimore
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 86.5% (Down 4.7% from last week)
Nov. 19 vs. Boston College
Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Week 12 vs. Boston College
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 92.1% (Down 2.2% from last week)
Nov. 26 at USC
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Week 13 at USC
FPI Odds of Notre Dame win: 24.9% (Down 6.1% from last week)
Notre Dame FPI Note 1 of 4: Irish fall in Rating Index
Matt Cashore – USA TODAY Sports
Notre Dame’s loss against a Stanford squad who hadn’t beaten any of its FBS opponents previously this season dropped the Irish in ESPN’s FPI. To my surprise this awful showing by Notre Dame only dropped them from 15 to 21.
Notre Dame FPI Note 2 of 4: Still a chance to win out!
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
The last couple of weeks saw momentum building with Notre Dame fans that buying into 10-2 and upsetting Clemson and USC seemed like real chances! Heck, even FPI gave the Irish a 4.6% chance of accomplishing that a week ago.
After this week’s update however, Notre Dame’s chances of running the table this regular season and going 9-3 dropped back to just 2.5%.
Notre Dame FPI Note 3 of 4: Bowl still likely
Matt Cashore – USA TODAY Sports
A week ago it looked like a lock that Notre Dame would get to six wins, as Stanford was one of a few perceived easy games remaining for the improved Irish. However, after dropping Saturday night’s affair, Notre Dame’s chances of getting to six wins and bowl eligibility fell from 99.5% to 91.6%.
Sure, they’re still likely but with Syracuse continuing to look the part and Clemson and USC being real tests, Notre Dame can’t afford to slide in the matchups their heavily favored in – something they’ve already done twice in six games.
Notre Dame FPI Note 4 of 4: Ultimate record projection
Matt Cashore – USA TODAY Sports
A week ago 7.9-4-1 was the projected final record FPI gave Notre Dame, but that also came with a 90.0% chance of beating Stanford. Give the Irish a loss in that game and add in drops in the likelihood of wins almost across the board, and FPI now has Notre Dame projected for 6.7-5.3.
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(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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Ohio State coming in hot trying to flip star Notre Dame commitment
Best photos from the disaster that was Notre Dame-Stanford
