ESPN predicts where Alabama will be in initial CFP rankings
The initial top 25 College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday and the Crimson Tide is expected to be in the top 10, but not necessarily near the top four. Before Crimson Tide fans get upset, it’s important to remember that the only CFP ranking that matters is the last one.
ESPN recently revealed its College Football Playoff ranking projections (subscription required) and the Crimson Tide sit at No. 8, just behind No. 7 Texas and one spot ahead of No. 9 Oklahoma.
College football analyst Heather Dinich put together the rankings and explained why each team was situated where they are. Dinich also shared reasons why they may be higher or lower in the actual rankings.
Why they could be higher
“It’s hard to imagine the committee disregarding the head-to-head game with Texas, especially considering the loss was in Tuscaloosa and both teams have continued to win and look good,” writes Dinich. “If the Tide were to move up, though, it would be because of its schedule strength. The Tide have two wins against likely CFP top-25 teams Ole Miss and Tennessee, which both won again Saturday. Alabama played arguably its best half of football all season in the second half of its win against the Vols, against whom it scored 27 unanswered points. With the exception of Arkansas (2-6), all of Alabama’s SEC opponents are above .500, and they have a combined record of 22-9, which is far better than Texas’ Big 12 wins and even some of the undefeated contenders’ résumés.”
Dinich makes many strong points, but the best one is the strength of the schedule argument. Alabama has one loss against another top-10 team and has managed to convincingly win many games against other quality, ranked opponents.
Why they could be lower
“Because it’s taken until the second half of the Tennessee game for Alabama to start to truly play like a CFP team again. A 17-3 win at South Florida raised questions, and Arkansas outscored Alabama 15-3 in the second half.”
Dinich points to three specific games to explain why Alabama could actually be lower than No. 8 in the initial rankings. Truly, the only one that carries much weight is the near disaster at South Florida. The Tide was able to adjust at halftime against Tennessee and looked as dominant as ever. Against Arkansas, Saban’s team let up some points and wasn’t able to reach the end zone. It happens.
What to know
“Alabama can clinch the SEC West next week with a win over LSU and a loss by Ole Miss against Texas A&M. The Tide’s game against LSU will likely be a CFP elimination game. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it’s far more difficult, especially without winning the division — as Alabama can attest to from last season.”
Alabama will have to take on LSU at home next week and Dinich states that it could be considered an elimination game. In all honesty, every game since the Texas loss has been a CFP elimination game. As Dinich mentions, no two-loss team has ever made the playoff.
What to make of it
Being ranked No. 8 seems fitting for Alabama just because of how many undefeated teams there are. However, I would raise questions regarding Texas and Oregon being ahead of the Tide. The Longhorns won the head-to-head matchup, but should that matter when the goal is to rank teams by their strength? Should a Week 2 win matter that much at this point in the season? The answer will change depending on who you ask. Oregon has looked dominant for the most part, but the Ducks have looked vulnerable in recent weeks since losing to Washington.
What will it take to reach top 4?
At this point, there is only one answer: win out and take the conference title from Georgia.
Alabama is in a unique position where it doesn’t necessarily need teams that are ranked above the Tide to lose. Nick Saban’s team has three quality game remaining on the regular season schedule and then could face the back-to-back national champions in the SEC championship. With those five wins, it would be very difficult for the College Football Playoff Committee to leave the Crimson Tide out of the playoffs.
