ESPN’s matchup predictor updates Iowa’s 2023 game-by-game forecast
The Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) close their nonconference schedule versus Western Michigan (1-1). Iowa enters off a 20-13 rivalry victory over Iowa State in the annual Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series.
The Hawkeyes used a pair of Drew Stevens field goals, a 4-yard touchdown run from redshirt freshman running back Jaziun Patterson and a 30-yard pick-six from senior CASH Sebastian Castro to find the winner’s column. Junior defensive lineman Ethan Hurkett put the nail in the coffin when he buried ISU running back Cartevious Norton for a 2-yard loss on a 4th-and-1 carry late in the fourth quarter.
With the win, Iowa has now topped Iowa State in seven of the last eight, eight of the past 10 and 11 of the last 15. The Hawkeyes have also won six straight in Ames.
Now, Iowa turns its attention to a Western Michigan team that opened with a 35-17 win over Saint Francis University but was routed last weekend at Syracuse, 48-7. That’s against a Syracuse team that was picked to finish 10th in the 2023 ACC Preseason Poll.
As kickoff against the Broncos approaches, let’s take a look at the updated game-by-game matchup predictor numbers from ESPN as compared to last week.
Sept. 16: vs. Western Michigan
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 94.3% (up from 88.7% last week)
All-Time Series: Western Michigan leads, 2-1
Last meeting: Iowa 59, Western Michigan 3 on Sept. 21, 2013
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 23: at Penn State
Predicted Winner: Penn State
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 13.6% (up from 13.5% last week)
All-Time Series: Penn State leads, 17-14
Last meeting: Iowa 23, Penn State 20 on Oct. 9, 2021
Projected running record: 3-1
Sept. 30: vs. Michigan State
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 61.3% (up from 48.9% last week)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 24-22-2
Last meeting: Iowa 49, Michigan State 7 on Nov. 7, 2020
Projected running record: 4-1
Oct. 7: vs. Purdue
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 72.5% (up from 69.5% last week)
All-Time Series: Purdue leads, 50-40-3
Last meeting: Iowa 24, Purdue 3 on Nov. 5, 2022
Projected running record: 5-1
Oct. 14: at Wisconsin
Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 46.3% (up from 30.2%)
All-Time Series: Wisconsin leads, 49-45-2
Last meeting: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 10 on Nov. 12, 2022
Projected running record: 5-2
Oct. 21: vs. Minnesota
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 63.3% (up from 51.5%)
All-Time Series: Minnesota leads, 62-52-2
Last meeting: Iowa 13, Minnesota 10 on Nov. 19, 2022
Projected running record: 6-2
Nov. 4: vs. Northwestern (Chicago)
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 73.2% (down from 73.9%)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 53-28-3
Last meeting: Iowa 33, Northwestern 12 on Oct. 29, 2022
Projected running record: 7-2
Nov. 11: vs. Rutgers
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 71.0% (down from 71.9%)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 3-0
Last meeting: Iowa 27, Rutgers 10 on Sept. 24, 2022
Projected running record: 8-2
Nov. 18: vs. Illinois
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 68.9% (up from 57.9%)
All-Time Series: Illinois leads, 39-37-2
Last meeting: Illinois 9, Iowa 6 on Oct. 8, 2022
Projected running record: 9-2
Nov. 24: at Nebraska
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 70.1% (up from 51.5%)
All-Time Series: Nebraska leads, 30-20-3
Last meeting: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17 on Nov. 25, 2022
Projected running record: 10-2
Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes, and opinions.
Follow Josh on Twitter: @JoshOnREF
We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. Hawkeyes Wire operates independently, though, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.
