ESPN FPI projects outcome of 2023 Oregon Ducks football season
After an incredibly promising season in 2022 with Dan Lanning at the helm for the first time, all arrows are pointing up for the Oregon Ducks as we head into the 2023 season.
With quarterback Bo Nix returning for another year, an incredibly talented group of skill position players, a retooled defense that should be able to fare well in the offense-heavy Pac-12, and a bolstered coaching staff that has seen some impressive hires over the past several months, there’s a reason for Oregon fans to feel confident at this point in the year.
We know the Ducks’ schedule, we know where the pivotal games will come, and we know what needs to improve in order for the team to make a run at the Pac-12 Championship, and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff.
How likely is that to happen, though?
While we have our opinions, one of the best predictors of future success over the years has been ESPN and their Football Power Index. Released for the first time in the 2023 season this past week, the FPI breaks down the top teams in the nation looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. It gives each team a projected record and breaks down their chances to become bowl-eligible, win the conference, and make it to the CFP.
So how does it see things playing out for the Ducks? Take a look.
Preseason FPI Ranking
Preseason FPI Ranking: 13th
While Oregon is commonly ranked around No. 10 in most preseason polls, the Football Power Index sees them a little bit lower on the charts. The semblance of doubt is understandable; there are a lot of questions about this team going into the new season despite the numerous strengths that they boast. A remade offensive line needs to prove itself as good as the unit was last year, and the defense has a long way to go before it can be considered elite.
For reference, the only other Pac-12 team ahead of Oregon is USC, with the 7th-ranked FPI nationally.
Projected Record
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Projected Record: 9.1-3.3
ESPN’s projected record for Oregon is a little bit lower than we have it, but not egregious by any stretch of the matter. While every game is important, there are 4 opponents on the schedule that the Ducks will have a serious dogfight with — USC, Washington, and Utah. ESPN projects that Oregon will lose three of those games. We say they lose one.
Chances of Going Undefeated
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Going Undefeated: 0.7%
With as strong as the Pac-12 is this season, it’s relatively irrational to expect any team to go undefeated. Never before since the conference expanded to 12 teams has a school run the table and gone 9-0 in league play. We expect the Pac-12 to be as talented as ever this season, so I wouldn’t start predicting an undefeated season any time soon.
Chances of Becoming Bowl Eligible
(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Percent Chance of Winning 6 Games: 99.4%
Let’s be real…if the Ducks don’t find a way to win six games this season, then they’ve got some real problems, and something must have gone terribly wrong along the way.
Chances of Winning Pac-12 Championsip
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Percent Chance to Win Pac-12 Championship: 16.9%
This feels a little bit low to me, but I understand given the unique amount of parity there is in the conference this year. Whichever team ends up winning the Pac-12 is going to have to go through a gauntlet to get there and will have proved their worth when all is said and done.
For reference, the USC Trojans have the best odds to win the Pac-12 with a 50.2% chance.
Chances of Making College Football Playoff
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Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 4.9%
Whichever team ends up winning the Pac-12 Championship will more than likely end up making the College Football Playoff, and likely get a first-round game relatively close to home at the Rose Bowl. Oregon doesn’t have great odds, but it’s also a big ask.
For reference, USC’s odds to make the CFP are 24.7%.
Chances of Making National Championship Game
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Percent Chance to Make National Championship Game: 1.2%
If the odds are long to make the College Football Playoff, then they’re going to be even longer to make it to the National Championship Game. If it makes you feel any better, the Ducks are one of 14 teams in the nation with a higher-than-1% chance of making it to the championship game.
Chances to Win National Championship
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 0.2%
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Let’s be honest, it would take an absolutely incredible season for the Ducks to end up winning the national championship. Bo Nix would likely be named the Heisman Trophy, and Dan Lanning would have a big new contract offer coming his way. You could also expect a handful of first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft coming out of Eugene in this scenario as well.
While it may be unlikely, it isn’t entirely impossible. Fans can dream.
Analysis
All-in-all, the 2023 outlook for the Oregon Ducks according to ESPN’s FPI feels pretty reasonable. Of course, we think that they will be a little bit better in the win-loss record than the FPI does, but a 9-3 season with a good chance of making it to the conference championship would be a successful season in my books.
