How ESPN’s FPI predicts Penn State’s remaining schedule, starting with Michigan
It’s been two weeks since we last saw Penn State on the football field, but the Nittany Lions return to action this weekend with a big road trip to Michigan. As most have expected, Penn State will be the road underdog this weekend against the No. 4 Wolverines in a stadium that has historically not been too kind to them over the years.
Penn State remains a top 10 team in the national rankings after Week 6, setting up a showdown of undefeated top 10 teams this weekend in Ann Arbor. It should go without saying that there is a good amount riding on the outcome of this weekend’s game, and a win could dramatically change the way the rankings look at Penn State, not to mention the updated bowl projections.
Penn State is currently ranked No. 12 in the updated Football Power Index from ESPN. Penn State had been in the top 10 within the last couple of weeks, but a sloppy game against Northwestern and some developments during Penn State’s bye week have resulted in some slight changes to the FPI.
As it stands right now, the FPI gives Penn State a projected record of 9.3-2.8, a mark that has slowly improved week by week this season. And with the updated FPI projections for each remaining game to be played by Penn State, the Nittany Lions could be well on their way to a 10-2 regular season.
Here is a look at each remaining game on Penn State’s schedule and how the most recent FPI numbers view Penn State’s chances for each game.
Oct. 15 at Michigan
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 26.7%
FPI outlook: Loss
We already knew that Penn State is the underdog this weekend at Michigan, and the FPI seems to be well on board with the concept that Penn State winning in Michigan Stadium is not likely to happen. There is roughly a 1-in-4 chance Penn State emerges victorious this weekend according to ESPN’s FPI.
Oct. 22 vs. Minnesota
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 63.5%
FPI outlook: Win
Penn State’s home game against Minnesota isn’t exactly the most favorable matchup, and the PFI suggests Penn State could have some challenges on its hand a week after visiting Michigan. The FPI doesn’t account for the whiteout impact under the lights, but Penn State is hoping to have a decisive home-field advantage to rely on.
Oct. 29 vs. Ohio State
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
FPI prediction: 19.9%
FPI outlook: Loss
The toughest game on Penn State’s schedule remains the home game against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a decisive favorite against Penn State according to the FPI. This is Penn State’s worst odds to win in any remaining game, which is to be expected. Ohio State’s projected record according to FPI is 12-0, so it does not appear the Nittany Lions are going to stand in Ohio State’s way.
OR WILL THEY???
Nov. 5 at Indiana
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 83.3%
FPI outlook: Win
A week after hosting Ohio State, Penn State is on the road once again in Bloomington, Indiana. The Hoosiers have been struggling this season and will be expected to be a heavy underdog at home when Penn State visits. This could be a classic hangover game recipe playing against Penn State, however.
Nov. 12 vs. Maryland
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 66.4%
FPI outlook: Win
Maryland is a team not to be taken lightly. With Taulia Tagovailoa among the Big Ten passing leaders, the Terps can be dangerous. Just ask Michigan, who needed a botched opening kickoff to help beat Maryland earlier this season. The good news is things should be much easier to close out the regular season for Penn State.
Nov. 19 at Rutgers
AP Photo/Barry Reeger
FPI prediction: 86.5%
FPI outlook: Win
Penn State has dominated the series with Rutgers and has not lost a game against the Scarlet Knights since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. That trend should continue this season in Penn State’s final road game of the year. The FPI outlook is extremely favorable to Penn State with the highest win percentage prediction on the remaining schedule.
Nov. 26 vs. Michigan State
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
FPI prediction: 79.3%
FPI outlook: Win
This has been the FPI prediction that has been changing dramatically this season as Penn State trends up and Michigan State has stumbled left and right. Penn State is a lopsided favorite at home against the Spartans in the final game of the regular season. The Spartans could be out of bowl contention by the time this game comes up, and Penn State is looking for revenge after a loss last season.
