ESPN FPI Update: Ducks still top-ranked Pac-12 team despite loss to Washington
The Oregon Ducks may be down for the moment, but they aren’t out. After suffering their first loss of the 2023 season, the road forward got a little bit tougher, but all of the goals that Dan Lanning and his squad had for the 2023 season are still attainable.
Despite their loss to the Washington Huskies, ESPN’s Football Power Index still seems to think highly of the Ducks, keeping them at No. 1 in the Pac-12 rankings this week. Though Washington jumped into the top spot when it comes to conference championship probability, the Ducks are still the higher-rated team, according to the metrics.
Oregon will have no easy path forward to get to that conference championship game, but according to the FPI outlook, they are heavily favored in each of their remaining games. Here’s how ESPN projects the rest of the season for the Ducks:
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 94.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 91.6%
Analysis
This game looked a lot better on paper a couple of weeks ago than it does now that Washington State has dropped two consecutive games and has looked incredibly lackluster on offense. The Cougars can still surprise you, so Oregon will need to be ready for a fight, but some of the shine has been taken off of this game.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.6%
Previous FPI Odds: 78.8%
Analysis
Again, it’s hard to forecast this game until we know if Cam Rising will be back or not. The Utes are still waiting on their veteran QB to return from a torn ACL, but they continue to win despite his absence. If Rising returns and can look like his old self, then the Utes could turn into a dangerous late-season team.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 92.9%
Analysis
California can score points on offense, but they can’t stop anyone on defense. I like what they’ve done over the past few weeks, but I don’t think Oregon fans should have too many concerns about this one.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 76.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 73.0%
Analysis
The Trojans’ flaws finally came up to bite them on Saturday in a 48-20 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It seems like USC has been exposed over the past several weeks, at first for having a terrible defense, and more recently for having a one-dimensional offense that relies completely on reigning Heisman-winner Caleb Williams to make magic happen. That’s not going to cut it against the top teams in the Pac-12.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 96.6%
Previous FPI Odds: 96.5%
Analysis
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again — put this win probability at 99.9%, and let’s move it along.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
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Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.1%
Previous FPI Odds: 80.5%
Analysis
I think that the Beavers might be the biggest threat remaining on Oregon’s schedule. While USC is going to be tough to stop offensively, you can at least put up 50 points on them and win that way. The Beavers have a really solid offense and a really solid defense. They look like legitimate Pac-12 contenders right now, and this regular-season finale could ultimately decide who gets into the conference championship game.
Season Outlook
Courtesy of Ethan Landa
FPI Score: 23.6
Previous: 24.9
FPI Rank: 6th
Previous: 5th
Projected Record: 10.5-2.1
Previous: 11.2-1.6
Pac-12 Title Odds: 32.8% (2nd)
Previous: 48.3% (1st)
College Football Playoff Odds: 19.4% (10th)
Previous: 40% (4th)
National Championship Odds: 9.5% (10th)
Previous: 19.4% (4th)
Win Championship Odds: 4.5% (10th)
Previous: 8.7% (4th)
