ESPN FPI Update: Ducks no longer underdog vs. Utah, favored in 8 of 9 remaining games
The nation is paying attention to the Oregon Ducks once again.
After a blowout loss in week 1 got everyone off of the scent for what Dan Lanning and his young coaching staff were trying to build in Eugene, a Week 3 blowout over No. 14 BYU — 41-20 — perked up quite a few ears.
With the win, Oregon proved that they belong in the top-25, and are a contender to make it not only to the Pac-12 Championship but also maybe sneak into a New Year’s Six bowl.
As always, we like to check in on ESPN’s Football Power Index after each game to see where the computers put Oregon, and if they have gained or lost confidence in the Ducks.
Here’s a look at the latest back of FPI predictions:
Week 4 at Washington State
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 72.4% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 70.6% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: This is by no means going to be an easy game for the Ducks. The Cougars are not currently ranked in the top 25, but they very well could be after an undefeated start and a road win over the No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers a week ago. It isn’t the biggest test on Oregon’s schedule, but certainly a grinder of a game to kick off the conference schedule.
Week 5 vs. Stanford
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 84.2% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 70.6% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Stanford had a bye over the weekend, so Oregon’s jump in winning percentage here is completely in accordance with their own performance against BYU. While the Cardinal isn’t near the top of the conference in terms of talent, they always give the Ducks trouble and could be a big-time trap game this year. We all remember what happened last year, and this game is coming late at night. Crazy things happen during Pac-12 After Dark…
Week 6 at Arizona
(Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)
Updated Win Percentage: 78.3% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 70.8% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Arizona showed some promise early in the season, but the fact that they had to grit out a close win over an FCS school I think has some people worried about the longevity of their success. That, plus Oregon’s dominant performance against BYU has the Ducks seeing a boost in win percentage.
Week 8 vs. UCLA
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 78.4% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 67.7% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: UCLA is 3-0, but anyone who has watched those three victories may have lost a ton of confidence in Chip Kelly’s squad. Against three bad teams, the Bruins have barely found a way to win. It’s not a surprise that Oregon’s win percentage is going up here. I don’t envision this game being as tough of a challenge for the Ducks as I did prior to the season.
Week 9 at California
Updated Win Percentage: 72.0% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 69.2% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: California showed a lot of guts in a close loss to Notre Dame over the weekend. Of course, the Fighting Irish may not be as good as we thought they were early in the year, but the Golden Bears hung tough. Their defense will pose a challenge for Oregon, but I don’t see the Ducks having much of an issue putting away Cal.
Week 10 at Colorado
Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 93.8% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 86.7% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: I mean, what do I really need to say here? Colorado is the worst team in the conference, and among the worst teams at the FBS level. You could put Oregon’s chances to win this game at 99.9% and it would still be too low.
Week 11 vs. Washington
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 58.4% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 54.6% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: As we get into the meat of the season, this home stand for Oregon, with Washington and Utah coming to Autzen in back-to-back weeks, is looking ever more important. The Huskies are good. They’re 3-0 and beat the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans last week. The first chapter of this new Dan Lanning vs. Kalen DeBoer rivalry is sure to be electric.
Week 12 vs. Utah
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 49.9% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 39.1% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: The Ducks took a big jump in winning percentage here against Utah, which surprised me a bit. Utah has been taking care of business since their season-opening loss to Florida, but it’s clear that the Utes and Ducks may be closer in skill-level than previously thought. As with the game against Washington, this matchup is going to be enthralling.
Week 13 at Oregon State
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Updated Win Percentage: 57.4% Oregon Win
Former Win Percentage: 54.3% Oregon Win
CONTEXT: Oregon State continues to get the job done, but they don’t get have a marquee win to hang their hats on, which is why I think Oregon continues to pick up percentage points in this matchup. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop closer to even as the season goes on, though. The Beavers are good.
Season-Long Outlook
(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)
Win Conference: 14.0%
Previous: 8.4%
Make College Football Playoff: 1.1%
Previous: 0.1%
Make National Championship: 0.2%
Previous: 0.0 %
Win National Championship: 0.0%
Previous: 0.0%
