ESPN analytics predicts similar sack totals for Bills’ Von Miller, Leonard Floyd
ESPN has used their analytic models to predict the top sack artists to come in the upcoming NFL season. In total, the top 50 were projected and two interesting Buffalo Bills names are featured.
In little surprise, Von Miller leads the way. However, it’s not Greg Rousseau listed next. Instead, it’s Leonard Floyd.
First, here’s how ESPN used their analytics to make their predictions:
Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons
Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN’s Mike Clay
Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats
How often a player’s defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past
How often opposing quarterbacks on each player’s upcoming schedule get sacked
A player’s team’s win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more
How often a player rushes from edge as opposed to the interior
Using these factors, ESPN projects Miller will lead the Bills with 7.5 sacks. Him doing so is an easy bet, even if 7.5 could be viewed as a bit low.
What ESPN’s analytics will have a hard time projecting is how many games Miller plays as he’s returning from a knee injury.
On Floyd, his projected 7.3 sacks via analytics turns heads mostly because it’s Floyd listed and not Rousseau.
It’s assumed that Rousseau and Miller will lead the pass rush once Miller comes back from injury. That could cut into Floyd’s sack totals. Even so, the Bills do run a big rotation on the D-line, so Floyd will still see plenty of snaps.
Finally, Rousseau is not on ESPN’s top 50… period.
The lowest projected sack total is 5.9 on the ranking. Rousseau is evidently going to have lower than that, per ESPN. He had 8.5 in 2022.
