Eight takeaways from the NFL's 2023 offseason
The NFL offseason – to the degree such a thing exists – is, for all intents and purposes, over, with nearly two dozen mandatory minicamps concluding this week.
For the next month-plus, the preponderance of players, coaches, staffers and executives throughout the league will (hope to) enjoy this rare stretch of downtime on the football calendar. Yet that doesn’t mean there aren’t outstanding issues – some very likely to reach some form of resolution well before training camps open in late July, others likely to continue generating water cooler fodder and headlines well into preseason and perhaps into Week 1 and beyond.
Here are eight takeaways from the 2023 NFL “offseason”:
Pending free agency wave
It’s rare for big names to shake loose so late in the spring, but Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook and WR DeAndre Hopkins recently became available, their former teams opting for salary cap relief when it was apparent trades wouldn’t materialize. Now Hopkins and – maybe especially – Cook could become icing on the cake for Super Bowl 58 contenders seeking one more ace for their hand. (And don’t forget, DL Jadeveon Clowney, RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB Leonard Fournette, K Robbie Gould and pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue are other prominent veterans still seeking contracts for this season.)
Pending contract issues
While all 32 teams have reached their annual summertime hiatus, the business of the NFL has crept into 24/7/365 territory. Franchise QBs Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) and Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers), franchise-tagged RBs Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) and Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders) and All-Pro DTs Chris Jones (Kansas City Chiefs) and Quinnen Williams (New York Jets) are among the most high-profile players at the head of the line for – and deserving of – hefty extensions. While Burrow and Herbert seem content to let the process play out as they head into their fourth seasons, the others have been absent for at least some of their respective clubs’ offseason programs awaiting an overflowing bag. Barkley and Jacobs have until July 17 to reach a new financial arrangement if they don’t want to play 2023 on the one-year tag.
Quarterback battles
Even if one assumes 2023 first-round passers Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers), C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans) and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) begin this season in their respective starting lineups, it appears a few other QB1 roles could be up for grabs well into preseason.
▶ San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy was a revelation as a rookie last season, replacing injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 12 before leading the Niners to the NFC title round. Had he not suffered an elbow injury that ultimately required surgery, Purdy would undoubtedly be under center in Week 1. That might prove true anyway – if his rehabilitation remains on track and the organization is comfortable that he’s physically sound. Otherwise, Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 draft – at the cost of significant investment of draft capital from the 49ers – could get one more showcase opportunity to play and perhaps entice another club to acquire him. However if Lance, whose 2022 season ended in Week 2 (fractured ankle), isn’t up to that potential assignment, journeyman Sam Darnold is in reserve – and perhaps finally in a situation that would allow his talent to bloom.
▶ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield is on his fourth team over the past year, but the No. 1 overall pick of the 2018 draft could be winning over the locker room and staff with a humbler attitude in his latest opportunity. Kyle Trask, a second-round pick two years ago, has thrown all of nine NFL passes but will also have a shot at replacing Tom Brady after apprenticing under him. Should be a pretty level playing field here given Dave Canales, a first-time NFL offensive coordinator, is installing a brand new system post-TB12.
▶ Washington Commanders: Second-year man Sam Howell has had the public backing of head coach Ron Rivera for months and just got another plug from WR Jahan Dotson, a 2022 draft mate. Though he was a fifth-round pick, Howell throws a great deep ball, has underrated athleticism and almost surely would have been drafted higher in 2021 (had he been eligible) before laboring through his final college season, when North Carolina had lost most of its offensive weaponry. Yet backup Jacoby Brissett – his 48 career NFL starts are 47 more than Howell has – is lurking, and Rivera recently conceded the veteran will also be in the mix. And with the coach likely in a prove-it season with new ownership inbound to the nation’s capital, high probability this job could change hands a few times for the only NFC East team that didn’t make the playoffs in 2022.
Biggest free agency infusion beneficiaries
In terms of established players signing with new teams – or re-upping with their current organizations – this year’s silly season wasn’t overly memorable. But a few clubs appear decidedly improved.
▶ Atlanta Falcons: S Jessie Bates was the headliner of this spending spree but comes to the ATL with new teammates like DT David Onyemata, LB Kaden Elliss – both former Saints – OLB Bud Dupree, DL Calais Campbell and QB Taylor Heinicke. Emergent RT Kaleb McGary re-signed. (Unrelated, the Falcons made Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom the game’s highest-paid guard and generated a splash in the draft by taking RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall.) Atlanta should be a legitimate threat to win the NFC South.
▶ Chicago Bears: Among the recipients from this year’s salary cap splurge were Pro Bowl LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Nate Davis, DL DeMarcus Walker, LB T.J. Edwards, TE Robert Tonyan and RB D’Onta Foreman. (Also, WR DJ Moore was obtained in Chicago’s post-combine trade of the No. 1 draft pick.) The supporting cast for QB Justin Fields looks significantly better.
▶ Denver Broncos: New RT Mike McGlinchey and LG Ben Powers signed contracts collectively worth nearly $140 million to upgrade the protection in front of QB Russell Wilson. Base DE Zach Allen may not be a big name but should have an immediate impact for this defense, which also picked up veteran DE Frank Clark – a frequent force multiplier in postseason – last week.
▶ New Orleans Saints: QB Derek Carr was the biggest prize of free agency, financially anyway, given New Orleans’ four-year, $150 million investment. He also instantly becomes the most decorated passer in the NFC South and could singlehandedly swing the division back in the Saints’ favor. The assistance of hardnosed RB Jamaal Williams should help while providing insurance pending the resolution of Alvin Kamara’s legal issues.
Biggest draft infusion beneficiaries
There are perceived winners and losers in the aftermath of every NFL draft, and it’s natural to juice the hope quotient of teams with multiple bites at the first-round apple. That's as true as ever, though what was a bit unusual was the number of already established clubs that managed to replenish themselves with so much young talent.
▶ Houston Texans: In the lengthy wake of the Deshaun Watson debacle, Stroud, the No. 2 overall selection, seems like the kind of star who could finally fill that void … in time. Yet GM Nick Caserio doubled down by vaulting back up to the third spot for pass rusher Will Anderson Jr., arguably the best player coming out this year. It’s also reasonable to expect a much better season from 2022 first-round CB Derek Stingley Jr., while WR John Metchie III, a second-rounder in 2022, should debut after missing his rookie year while battling leukemia. The road back could be long, but it seems the Texans are finally in gear.
▶ Philadelphia Eagles: Following their narrow defeat in Super Bowl 57, the NFC champs wasted little time re-signing several key free agents before extending breakout QB Jalen Hurts. But the draft was the pièce de resistance, Philly adding former Georgia stars Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo to a defense that ranked second overall in 2022 while acquiring veteran RB D’Andre Swift for good measure. Needless to say, another Super Sunday appearance could very much be in the cards.
▶ Pittsburgh Steelers: Sometimes the board falls your way … and, sometimes, you make your own luck – and GM Omar Khan definitely seemed to generate good fortune with a draft night deal to get first-round LT Broderick Jones while the 2022 trade deadline export of WR Chase Claypool paved the way for CB Joey Porter Jr.’s arrival with the 32nd pick. Third-round TE Darnell Washington could have a massive impact.
▶ Seattle Seahawks: The final payout of the now-heralded 2022 Wilson trade brought first-round CB Devon Witherspoon and second-round pass rusher Derick Hall, the ‘Hawks adding WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Round 1) and RB Zach Charbonnet (Round 2) with their organic picks. A surprising wild-card entry last year, it would hardly be a shock if Seattle goes much further in 2023.
Teams in trouble
For every 13-win team, there’s basically another squad that posts four victories – life in the zero-sum NFL. Here are three that could struggle mightily:
▶ Arizona Cardinals: Hopkins, Allen and J.J. Watt are among the goners, and it seems perennial Pro Bowl S Budda Baker wants to join them. The Cards have a rookie head coach in Jonathan Gannon and a franchise quarterback (Kyler Murray) whose timeline to return from a major knee injury is anyone’s guess. There’s always 2024.
▶ Las Vegas Raiders: Effectively swapping out Carr for Garoppolo – assuming his surgically repaired foot doesn’t become an impediment – seems largely like a lateral move, even if it’s saving the Silver and Black on the salary cap. Still unsigned, Jacobs has been a no-show for workouts. Yet the biggest question might be the non-monetary cost of apparently alienating superstar WR Davante Adams, who came to Sin City a year ago to play with close friend Carr.
▶ Tennessee Titans: Little more than a year removed from being the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, their issues on the O-line and in the receiving corps are apparently persistent – which, if true, won’t do any favors for RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill as they enter walk years.
New coaches
Five teams that made coaching changes in 2022 (Buccaneers, Dolphins, Giants, Jaguars and Vikings) wound up in the playoffs. There are five new HCs in total after this year’s hiring cycle, though Gannon’s Cards, Shane Steichen’s Colts and DeMeco Ryans’ Texans project as postseason long shots. As generally open as the NFC South appears, Frank Reich and the Panthers could make a push – pending Young’s development.
But of the outfits under new sideline management, the Broncos are the ones to watch. The roster seemingly fortified, Sean Payton will embark on one of the more surprising reclamation projects in years after Wilson’s disastrous Rocky Mountain debut – both on and off the field.
Hope for the downtrodden
While 12 of the league’s 32 teams have never won a Super Bowl, several have presently elevated themselves into the category of perennial contender, including the Bills and Bengals. The Chargers and Vikings have reasonable chances of stringing together consecutive playoff berths. But hope has truly blossomed anew in several notable markets:
▶ Cleveland Browns: Far more will be expected in Watson’s second season, and recently acquired DE Za’Darius Smith and WR Elijah Moore will need to pay dividends. But if Watson can settle in for what should be his first full season in three years, while superstars Myles Garrett and Nick Chubb live up to expectations – with one of the league’s best offensive lines paving the way – the “Factory of Sadness” could finally go into shutdown mode.
▶ Detroit Lions: They fell a tiebreaker short of reaching the playoffs last year and have become the chic pick to become the NFC North’s next rulers. Sustain the momentum from their 8-2 finish in 2022, and that should happen for the only NFC team that’s never played on Super Sunday.
▶ Jacksonville Jaguars: The lights came on for Trevor Lawrence and Co. last season, which ended with a competitive road loss in the divisional round to the eventual champion Chiefs. The Jags, who ought to get a lift from WR Calvin Ridley, should be prohibitive favorites to remain atop the AFC South.
▶ New York Jets: Whenever – if ever – they win another Super Bowl, the 1968 champions will set a record for the longest lag between Lombardi Trophies. And optimism is at its highest tide in more than a decade – the NYJ last reached postseason in 2010, the longest drought in the league – with Aaron Rodgers and a few of his buddies joining a crew what was in playoff contention deep into last season despite its abysmal quarterback play. Win or lose, the Jets will likely be the league’s marquee story line – with long-awaited prime-time appearances to prove it – at the outset of the season.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL offseason's eight key takeaways, including QB competitions
