Eagles mailbag: Should the Eagles consider Bijan Robinson at No. 10?

Eagles mailbag: Should the Eagles consider Robinson at No. 10? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

We’re less than three weeks from the 2023 NFL Draft so it should be no surprise many of the questions we got on Friday were about the draft.

We’ll try to answer as many questions as we can over the next few days, starting with this one:

It’s not a very high percentage but it’s also a non-zero percent chance. Of course, we all know the history. The Eagles haven’t drafted a running back in the first round since 1986 when they drafted Keith Byars with the No. 10 pick out of Ohio State. The Eagles have drafted running backs in the second round since then but never again in the first. And we know the organizational philosophy on certain positions like running back and linebacker that have been devalued. That’s not to say that those positions aren’t important but if there’s ever a tie, it’s going to the trenches or other positions in which the Eagles clearly see more value.

But there’s still a case to be made for drafting Bijan Robinson out of Texas in the first round this year. Because he’s a special player and one of the best overall prospects in this draft. So if the Eagles are on the board at 10 and the top players at other positions are gone and they think Robinson — despite his position — is clearly the best player, then maybe they’d do it. Especially if there aren’t any trade possibilities.

There’s also a stronger case to make for the Eagles’ drafting a running back in the first round this year because they have an extremely talented roster that’s coming off a Super Bowl appearance and if they’re a running back away from running back an even more elite offense, then it’s intriguing. With the losses on defense from the 2022 team, it’s more likely the offense will need to carry the team more this coming season. And Robinson has the potential to be a real star in the NFL.

In the last 10 years, there have been five running backs taken in the top 10 picks — Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. While there are talented players in there, we’ve seen the volatile nature of the position. If you draft a running back, you can’t really count on them being there for the long haul. But the Eagles are in a unique spot because they have the No. 10 pick from a trade, not because they stunk in the previous season. Drafting a running back is a luxury pick but the Eagles are in a better spot to make a luxury pick than most teams drafting in the top 10.

But … I still don’t think it happens. I’ll finally answer your question and give it a 7.5% chance, which sounds scientific but absolutely isn’t. Ultimately, I think the Eagles’ first pick is going to a more premium position and it’s never a bad idea to bet on them going to the trenches.

I can tell how intrigued fans are by Sermon and it’s understandable. He was a third-round pick in 2021 by the 49ers but was cut before his second season. The Eagles claimed him and basically kept him on their bench for the entirety of the 2022 season. Sermon had juts 2 carries for 19 yards last year. But there’s clearly some talent there and with the departure of Miles Sanders in free agency, there might be som opportunity.

It’s just a little tough to figure out how the pieces in that running back room fit together because of the unknowns. The top three backs in the rotation right now are Rashaad Penny, Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott. The biggest question is about Penny’s health and it’s just impossible to see the future. Penny is an extremely talented player and has been productive in his NFL career but just hasn’t stayed healthy. Maybe it’s foolish to expect him to come to Philly and stay on the field. But if he does, he has legitimate RB1 and even Pro Bowl potential. If that happens and he stays healthy, then it’s much harder to find a role for Sermon. Because then Sermon is likely the fourth running back in the rotation and the Eagles wouldn’t even keep him active on game days.

There’s a chance the Eagles might have something in Sermon but it shouldn’t eliminate drafting a running back either. The same goes for all the backs the Eagles have in the room right now. It could end up being a really solid rotation but a running back in a mid-round still makes sense.

All that said, I can’t wait to watch Sermon in training camp. He arrived just before the season in 2022 so we haven’t really gotten an extended look at him yet.

Trying to figure out what Howie Roseman is going to do on draft day is never easy. What I can tell you is that I’d be surprised if he simply stays put at 10 and 30 and drafts players. That’s not the way he operates. To Roseman, the draft isn’t about taking the best players, it’s about taking the best players at the best value. And there’s no GM in the league who’s more willing to move up and down the board.

This is going to sound like a cop out but everything is on the table. As much as some folks expect the Eagles to trade down from 10 to accumulate more picks, I really think a trade-up is in play too. I think back to last year when the Eagles traded up to draft Jordan Davis and a few years ago when they traded up to draft Andre Dillard. If a really good player falls into their range, Roseman is never hesitant to get aggressive. Whether it’s a player like Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson, I could envision a scenario where a really talented player falls into the Eagles’ range and they pounds.

And on the flip side of that, if they do trade up from 10, I could then see a trade down from 30 out of the first round to replenish some resources they had to give up to move higher in the top 10. Sometimes these things work together.

I am totally open to these types of questions. The Eagles’ have a Vice President of Grounds named Tony Leonard, who has been with the organization since before the Linc and the NovaCare Complex were built. In an interview with Eagles employee Dave Spadaro, Leonard said he’s been with the team since 1997. The Eagles also have several other employees who work with Leonard.

As far as the grass at the Linc, the Eagles use a unique system with two types of grass, Leonard explained in an interview with SportsField Management in 2019. The Eagles have a warm-weather grass and a cold-weather grass. From July through late November, the Eagles use Northbridge bermudagrass and then from December through the summer, they switch to Kentucky bluegrass.

“We still have the original rootzone and GrassMaster system as a base,” Leonard said in that interview, “but use sod 1½-inch thick throughout the year due to a heavy event load.”

Yes and the Eagles want to get that accomplished. Roseman has been very upfront about that. Hurts is entering the final year of his rookie contract so this is the first time he’s eligible for an extension. It’s going to be a huge deal but assuming Hurts continues to play at a very high level, that price tag would continue to go up if the Eagles wait until after next season. They might then be forced to go with the franchise tag route as a precaution and it’s not their style to let it get to that point. They want to reach a long-term deal with Hurts and I expect it to happen before the start of the 2023 season.

The Eagles have plenty of flexibility. While they can’t trade future compensatory picks until they’re awarded, they can go into this draft expecting to get four additional picks in next year’s draft, likely giving them 12 in 2024. That’s a ton. So they have plenty of ammo to get picks in this season and to move up to snag a player in this draft if they need to. They can’t trade those future compensatory picks but they already have 8 picks and can trade them knowing more picks are coming.

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