Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for No. 6 Oregon vs. California
The Oregon Ducks are the got talk of the town in the world of college football right now, which means that we personally have a lot to talk about. Whether it’s Bo Nix Heisman Trophy odds, College Football Playoff rankings, or potential trips to the national championship game, there are endless storylines right now for Dan Lanning and the Ducks.
Of course, none of those storylines will come to fruition if Oregon can’t take care of business this week against an improved California Golden Bears team that has one of the better offenses in the Pac-12.
As we do each and every week, let’s preview the action with Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley, and Miles Dwyer.
Here is your ninth regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.
Putting a Bow on Utah
(Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
Question: Which impressed you the most on Saturday, the offense or the defense?
Ultimately, I think the offense — and specifically the control that Bo Nix had of the game — was the most impressive to me. Utah went into the weekend with one of the best defenses in the nation, and Oregon picked them apart with complete ease. We knew that the Ducks’ defense wouldn’t have too much trouble with Utah’s injured offense, but Oregon being able to get whatever they wanted against that defense was impressive.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The defense. Going to Utah and holding them out of the end zone for the first time since 2018 is impressive. I don’t think this defense is getting the recognition it deserves. It’s really good.
Immediately after the game, I would’ve said the defense. Holding Utah to 6 points at home is unheard of and it was a massive accomplishment. But now with a week’s perspective, I think I’m more impressed by Oregon’s offensive performance. The Utes’ defense is one of the toughest and most physical units in the country, and the Ducks’ offense walked all over them. In fact, Oregon’s worst play on offense may have been the delay of game penalty on their first play from scrimmage.
Bo Nix Heisman Chances
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Question: As it stands now, Bo Nix would make it to New York for the Heisman ceremony in December. Do you think that he needs a couple of explosive performances between now and then to actually win the award?
I certainly think his case would be stronger if he could go up against the California and USC defenses and throw for over 300 yards and 3 TD in each game, but I don’t think he absolutely has to do that in order to win the Heisman. At this point, Nix is consistent enough that his year-long stats are going to show he belongs in the conversation, and the determining factor is going to be how good the Ducks are by December. If Nix can get a couple of those stand-apart games between now and then, though, then I think his case could be undeniable.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Definitely. A couple of big games against, USC, OSU (the day after Thanksgiving) and vs. Washington to win the Pac-12 title and to go into the CFP would give him the Heisman.
I think if Bo continues to play the way he is, his stats will be where they need to be come December. What I think he needs to do to get over the hump is have another big moment on a big stage. While Nix has given us several moments this season worthy of the title, “Heisman Moment,” I think he needs to do something that tops them all to go from finalist to winner.
CFP Breakdown
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Question: In this hypothetical, you’re on the CFP selection committee. Are you putting Oregon over Washington based on the last 2 weeks of evidence?
In the world that we presently live in, no committee member is going to put Oregon over Washington because of the head-to-head, but if I were in that room, I would really argue for it, though I know it likely wouldn’t happen. The recent eye-test means a ton to me, and it’s impossible to ignore what we’ve seen since that game.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Strictly on the last two weeks? Oregon has shown it’s the better overall team.
I don’t think you can yet. Despite how much they’ve struggled these past two weeks, it’s not like the Huskies have lost the games. So even though they had two mediocre performances against bad teams, I think the selection committee has Oregon and Washington properly ranked, for now. As long as Oregon does their job, they’ll get their chance to go at Washington.
Room For Improvement?
(Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa)
Question: We saw about as perfect of a game as we could have from Oregon vs. Utah. Where do you still see room for improvement going forward?
This is really nit-picking, but I want to see the Ducks have a bit more of that ‘Kobe Bryant, step on your throat’ instinct. There was an opportunity in the 2nd quarter vs. Utah to score a late touchdown and completely ice the game before halftime, but Oregon took its foot off the gas seemingly and punted, allowing a late field goal for the Utes. I want to see them go all out and try to score there rather than letting up.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Penalties keep creeping up, making drives more difficult. It didn’t hurt against Utah, but it will against the better teams such as USC, OSU, and Washington. The fewer 1st-and-15s the better.
Things got a little sloppy toward the end of the first half against Utah, but it wasn’t enough to be anything to worry about. The only other thing I can think of was Troy Franklin dropping two passes. I thought back this week and I’m not sure I can ever remember him dropping a pass. Though again, I am not worried about it as I’m sure those drops were a fluke.
Meeting Expectations
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Question: At this point in the season, do you feel better about this team than you did in the preseason, or are they simply living up to expectations?
This week is the first time all year that I finally was able to admit that Oregon was exceeding my preseason expectations. It’s not just that they are winning, but rather how they are winning. With a dominant physicality on defense and an offense that is willing to take the top off of a defense, I think this team looks better than I expected them to at this point in the season.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I feel a lot better. The offense is about where I thought it would be, but the offensive line is a lot better than we thought. The defense is so much better than we predicted. They’ve more than held their own against a QB-happy conference.
At this point in the season, the Ducks are absolutely exceeding my expectations, and they are fulfilling all my hopes and dreams for this season. I did think Oregon would have a real shot at the College Football Playoff before the season started, but for that possibility to still be alive in November is a whole different thing.
Want to See
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Question: What do you most want to see from the Ducks this weekend vs. Cal, assuming that it will be a relatively low-stress victory?
This will be another really good test for Oregon’s defense, going up against the best rushing attack they’ve seen all season. Cal has the No. 19 running game in the nation, averaging just over 200 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, the Ducks have given up fewer than 100 yards in six straight games. I’m interested to see what those two forces look like against each other.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Just that. A low-stress victory. I’d like to see Nix out by the fourth quarter and get Ty Thompson some reps in conference play.
Realistically, the thing I want to see most is Bo Nix put up some numbers — assuming it’ll be a low-stress victory of course. 300+ yards, 3+ TDs, and perhaps a Top-10 worthy play? I know it’s a lot to ask, but it would do a lot to bolster his Heisman campaign.
Championship Corner
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Question: This is a cousin to “Gambling Corner.” If you were given $100 and could either keep it for yourself or put it on Oregon’s national championship odds (+1400, 5th best in the nation), what would you choose to do with it?
Can I play the party pooper really quickly? I’m keeping the money… I hate to say it, but I still just want to see a little bit more before I’m ready to fully say that this team is capable of winning the national championship. Can they make the College Football Playoff? Absolutely. Can they make it to the national championship game? I can see it. I want to see the games against USC and OSU — two matchups that will require incredibly different styles of play — before I start predicting a natty.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I’m definitely going to put the $100 up. The defense is good enough to win a Natty.
Ahh the Joey Harrington question. +1400 seems like a pretty good line to me with how Oregon’s playing so I think I’d risk the money. If I lose, it’ll just be like I never had the money. To be honest, I’m not much of a gambler, but there’s something about the Ducks this season that feels a little different, so why not take this bet?
Gambling Corner
Question: Gambling Corner. You know the drill. $100 to spend on the spread (Oregon -24), the Moneyline (Oregon -3000, Cal +1200) or the Over/Under (59.5). Where are you allocating your capital?
Give me $70 on the Ducks covering the spread, and $30 on the over. I think that Oregon can hit the 59.5 number by themselves if they want to.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I’m taking the Ducks to cover ($60) and I’m taking the Over this time ($40)
I’m taking all $100 and betting on Oregon to cover. The only time they’ve failed to cover the spread this season was their last home game against Washington State, and I don’t see that trend lasting.
Final Score Prediction
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Question: Final Score Prediction. Who wins this game?
Give me Oregon 48, California 13.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Ducks 49, Bears 24 (It won’t be that close. Cal gets a couple of late scores).
38-7 Oregon.
