Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for No. 9 Oregon vs. Stanford
Last week was incredibly fun. With the arrival of Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes in Eugene, we got storylines galore, whether it was pregame speeches, postgame comments, or highlight videos that came with receipts.
This week has alllowed fans of the Oregon Ducks to take a breath and get back to reality for a second. With a game against the Stanford Cardinal — one of the bottom teams in the Pac-12 — the Ducks are getting a reset which will extend into the bye next week and prepare everyone for a Week 7 showdown with the Washington Huskies.
While the game this weekend between Ducks and Cardinal is not expected to have the hype that we saw a week ago, it is still an important one on Oregon’s schedule and will give us some answers to a few key questions about this squad going forward.
To preview the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley and Miles Dwyer made predictions and offered opinions on what we might see.
Here is your fifth regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.
Takeaways from Colorado
Question: Saturday was an impressive showing from both Oregon’s offense and Oregon’s defense vs. Colorado. What do you think was your single biggest takeaway from the 42-6 win over Colorado?
It has to be the defensive line, for me. Racking up 7 sacks in a day is not easy to do. Yes, Colorado had one of the worst offensive lines in the nation, but I think if you put last year’s Oregon DL against that OL, they wouldn’t come close to the production that the 2023 Ducks did.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Oregon showed what kind of team it can be when they play up to their full capabilities and it’s exciting. The Ducks can be a legit playoff team if they play like that.
My biggest takeaway is a bit odd, but for some reason Troy Franklin impressed me to a new degree on Saturday. He is always impressive, but he outdid himself against Colorado. Today, I saw a national WR ranking list, and Franklin wasn’t included inside the top 10. Admittedly, I’m not familiar with the play of everyone who was ranked above him, but I’d be shocked if they are 10 receivers better than Troy Franklin in college football.
Dan Lanning Pregame Speech
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Question: There has been non-stop talk about Dan Lanning and his pregame speech on Saturday, with some ugly rhetoric coming from sports pundits around the nation. I’m going to give you the floor: What is your take on the entire situation?
Is it a bit ironic that Lanning went viral in a speech that was meant to shame doing things for social media clicks? Sure. Does that make me disagree with what he did? Absolutely not. Lanning saw an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone — fire up his team and make this personal, while also broadcasting a message to recruits and the fanbase, showing what the foundation of the program is like, and what it looks like behind closed doors. It worked.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
This has been so overblown. I bet Lanning gives a speech like this every week. We just got to see a snippet of what he does all the team and since it was aimed at Deion Sanders and Colorado, the media tweaked out. I can bet the farm (HA!) that Lanning will have a similar speech this week, except it will be about how they showed they can dominate at home and now it’s time to do it on the road. Stanford just happens to be the team on the other sideline.
Yes, there were cameras in the locker room. Yes, Lanning would’ve known they were there. But he wasn’t speaking to the camera, to ESPN, or to any member of Colorado, he was speaking to his team. His team liked what he had to say and that’s all that matters. But unfortunately for Lanning, it’s part of a head coach’s job to not care about the opinion of anyone who isn’t standing on his sideline, even though there will always be third parties ready to chime in. Lanning seems to be handling things well, but I’m sure brushing off all of the hate coming his way can’t be easy.
Oregon's Defense
Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa
Question: Do you think that Oregon’s defense vs. Colorado is what we can expect to see going forward? Or rather was it a product of the Buffs having a bad offensive line and an over-hyped offense?
I don’t think that Oregon’s defense will look as dominant week to week as it did against Colorado, but I have seen enough so far this year to think that the unit has markedly improved from a year ago. The Colorado offense may not have been quite as good as we expected, but the Ducks still exposed it in a way that nobody had yet this season. We will see exactly what that means this week when the Buffs play USC.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I think Oregon’s defense it legit. Yes, not having Hunter out there and Colorado’s O-line being weak certainly helped, but the defense against Hawaii was outstanding too. Unfortunately, we won’t get a true answer to how good the Duck defense is until the Huskies game Oct. 14.
I think some of what we saw against Colorado may have been a one time thing while others may be here to stay. To state the obvious, seven sacks as a team likely won’t be a weekly occurrence, but things like strong team tackling as well the elite one-on-one coverage of Khyree Jackson could be something we get used to. Regardless, I think we can now confidently say that defensively, things have stepped up from the standard of the last few years. In 2022, all the Ducks had was Christian Gonzalez. Now, there are a number of standouts on the defensive side of the ball.
Stanford Memories
(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Question: It’s now Stanford week, which undoubtedly drums up some painful memories over the past couple of years. What do you think is your worst Stanford memory?
Ugh. I think the Zach Ertz TD looms large in my memory, as do the 223 yards and 3 TD from Toby Gearhart in 2009. However, maybe it’s due to recency bias but I think the 2021 loss in OT gets looked past a little bit. Because of Oregon’s monumental win over Ohio State a couple of weeks before, because of the coaching, because of the injuries, and because of the awful officiating, the Ducks lost as No. 3 in the nation. That one definitely hurt.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
You want me to go into therapy again?? The 17-14 overtime loss in 2012 where Zach Ertz made an insane catch in the corner of the end zone with 1:35 left and De’Anthony Thomas not blocking for Mariota’s would-be touchdown run haunts me. It’s not often Autzen goes from a 100 to hearing a pin drop after that field goal in overtime.
Admittedly, I haven’t been a fan of the Ducks for very long, so my mind isn’t banked with moments of heartbreak against Stanford. I did some research though, and I have some options. The two overtime losses since 2018 couldn’t have felt good, and the 49-7 blowout must have stung too. I think what has to be the most painful though is the 26-20 loss in 2013. It was Marcus Mariota’s sophomore season and the Ducks were ranked 2nd in the country. Without that loss to Stanford, the Ducks may not have lost to UofA later on, and they could’ve played in the final BCS National Championship.
Playing Up the Rivalry
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Question: How much do you think Dan Lanning plays into that rivalry vs. Stanford to fire his guys up this week for a game that, on paper, should not be even close to competitive?
I don’t think that Lanning plays into the rivalry too much this week, but rather points to 2021 and reminds players that if they aren’t careful, they could lose. This would be an easy game to look past for the Ducks, but Oregon has a recent case of a top-ranked team getting too cute and losing in overtime. That’s what is getting played up in the UO locker room this week.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I think it won’t be Stanford, but he’ll challenge the Ducks to play A LOT better on the road, to show that Oregon isn’t just a team that can only win in Eugene. The Cardinal just happen to be the opponent this week. But who knows? Whatever the motivation will be, I’m sure Oregon will be ready to go at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.
I don’t think he’ll play into the rivalry all that much. Right now, Dan Lanning’s focus seems to be “Oregon vs. Oregon.” With that in mind, it doesn’t make sense to look back at history before this game, but instead to the present of right here, right now. What I think is much more likely is Lanning playing into the fact that this weekend is just another chance to dominate and play a complete game.
Noah Whittington
Question: The Ducks will be without Noah Whittington in this game, and likely for the next few games at least. How big of a loss do you think that is for the Ducks?
I think the magnitude of the loss will depend entirely on the length of time that Whittington is out for. If it’s a 2-3 week injury, then the Ducks will have him back for the meat of the schedule. If it’s a 4-5 week injury, though, it will test the depth at the position. Luckily, Oregon has the best RB room in the Pac-12 this season, so they should be alright.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
It’s a big loss, but fortunately, the Ducks have a stable of tailbacks. I think we’ll see a lot more of Jordan James and he’ll show he’s more than a goal line specialist.
The Ducks are fortunate to be so deep at the RB position, but that doesn’t mean the loss of Whittington is easily dealt with. Based on what Lanning said after the game, and then again on Monday, it seems that the loss of Whittington means a lot more to this team than losing the production he brings on Saturday. I think it is a hurdle that both Oregon and Whittington will be able to overcome, but I don’t think it will be easy to do so.
Gambling Corner
Question: Gambling Corner. I give you $100 to put on either the spread (Oregon -27.5) the money line (Oregon -10,000, Stanford +1600) or the O/U (81.5) where are you putting it?
I don’t have a feel for how many points will be scored in this, but I do feel like Oregon is going to dominate and cover. Whether that’s 42-0, 65-3, or 72-20, I’m not sure, because the Ducks could easily take out starters at halftime. Regardless of the total, I think they cover with ease. Give me $100 on the over.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Definitely putting $75 on Oregon covering the 27.5. The O/U is a big number. I don’t think Stanford will score enough for the over, so I’d put $25 on the under.
The Ducks are 4-0 against the spread this year and who am I to argue with the numbers? I’m putting all $100 on Oregon to cover.
Final Score Prediction
Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa
Question: What is your score prediction for this game?
Oregon 49, Stanford 6
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Ducks 52, Stanford 10
Oregon 62, Stanford 3
