Dr. Diandra: Number of owners who will compete in Cup playoffs grows in 2023
Will Elliott be on outside looking in of playoffs?
Marty Snider, Steve Letarte, and Steve Letarte analyze the current NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture with only five races remaining in the regular season.
While the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series is unlikely to match the 16 regular-season winners of last season, more owners will be celebrating playoff berths this year.
Six owners fielded the 16 cars that participated in the 2022 playoffs, with each owner having at least two playoff cars. Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske each had three drivers in the playoffs. Hendrick Motorsports had four.
With only five races left in the 2023 regular season, all 11 playoff-eligible winners are guaranteed a spot in the competition for the championship. Those 11 winners represent seven different owners. Kevin Harvick will likely point his way into the playoffs, bringing the total number of playoff owners to at least eight.
If Michael McDowell of Front Row Motorsports (currently in 16th place) or A.J. Allmendinger of Kaulig Racing (currently in 17th place) make the playoffs, the number of owners participating in the championship could rise to nine or 10. Brad Keselowski and/or Chris Buescher would add RFK to the list.
There’s also nothing to rule out a dark horse winner like Erik Jones, Justin Haley or Corey LaJoie at the regular-season-ending Daytona race.
Eleven of the 19 drivers who won last year have not won this year. A total of 15 drivers with at least one Cup Series win are winless in 2023. That leaves plenty of room for additional winners.
Fewer different winners, but more owners
A small number of owners, each usually fielding multiple cars, typically dominate the championship competition. The table below summarizes the number of owners and cars making the playoffs in each year run under stage-racing playoff rules.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The largest number of owners in the playoffs in the last six years is eight, in 2017. Furniture Row’s closing in 2019 shifted Martin Truex Jr. to Joe Gibbs Racing. Trackhouse Racing bought Chip Ganassi Racing’s NASCAR operations and has continued Ganassi’s tradition of putting at least one car in the playoffs.
The larger number of owners involved in the playoffs this year comes at the cost of teams used to putting most of their drivers in the playoffs. The two teams hit hardest this year are Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing.
Hendrick Motorsports
Hendrick Motorsports has had at least three of its drivers in the playoffs every year since 2017. In 2021 and 2022, all four of its teams made the playoffs.
After 21 races, Hendrick has only two drivers confirmed in: William Byron with four wins, and Kyle Larson with two wins. That leaves Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman in the unfamiliar position of needing wins to make the playoffs.
Bowman is 46 points below the playoff cutline after missing three races. Elliott is 56 points away after missing seven races. Those may not seem like insurmountable gaps with five races left — but the drivers ahead of them are also scrambling for points. Elliott earned 27 points from his 10th-place Pocono finish, but only gained four points toward making the playoffs cutline.
Elliott’s average finishing position of 11.7 is the best of any full-time driver in the Cup Series. Points leader Truex has an 11.9 average finish and Byron comes in with a 12.1. Elliott finished 12 of the 14 races he’s run in 2023 on the lead lap and his last six finishes have all been in the top 13.
But running “well” isn't enough for Elliott to make the playoffs. Elliott has won races at Watkins Glen twice, making that track his best hope for leapfrogging the drivers ahead of him in points.
Bowman’s average finish of 15.2 is the 12th best in the series, but it’s a somewhat misleading statistic. Bowman hasn’t cracked the top 10 in the eight races he’s run since returning from a back injury.
HMS is highly unlikely to continue its streak of having all four drivers in the playoffs this year. The organization may be fortunate to get three in.
Stewart-Haas Racing
Stewart-Haas Racing has never had fewer than two drivers in the playoffs. This year, the organization is most likely to have only one.
Harvick has ranked as high as second this season, but that was after the Cup Series’ first trip to Richmond. Since then, he’s fallen to eighth, but he's a healthy 163 points ahead of the cutline.
Harvick is the only SHR driver who has overcome Ford’s aerodynamic deficit this year. The only two Ford drivers to win their way into the playoffs are Penske’s Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.
Luck hasn't been on SHR's side, either. A loose tire took Aric Almirola out of contention at New Hampshire. A speeding penalty sent Ryan Preece to the back of the field at Martinsville after he dominated the first stage.
Chase Briscoe broke a finger early in the season and his team incurred a 120-point penalty for a counterfeit part found on the car after Charlotte. He’s back in 31st position. Even if he can win one of the next five races, he’ll be down 20 playoff points thanks to the counterfeit part.
An exceptional year
Four circumstances have led to having a larger number of owners competing for the championship this year.
Elliott and Bowman missing races
Ford’s aerodynamic nosedive
Kyle Busch and Tyler Reddick changing teams
RFK Racing’s rebuilding
I believe this confluence of unusual events is responsible for the phenomenon rather than an inherent change due to the Next Gen car. But the increasingly diverse roster of tracks — and a sanctioning body unafraid to make major changes — will continue to broaden opportunities for the second- and third-tier teams competing in the Cup Series.
