How the Dolphins can beat the Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday
After what will be a 10-day gap between games, the 3-1 Miami Dolphins travel north to face their AFC East rival, the New York Jets. While that time was needed to rest and recover from a four-game stretch that took a physical and mental toll on the team, the Dolphins are coming into MetLife Stadium hobbled but hopeful.
As per the team’s Friday injury report, an uncomfortably long list of limited participants and questionable game designations brings some concerns floating around heading into Sunday’s matchup.
It was already known earlier in the week that Tua Tagovailoa won’t make the trip (concussion/back/ankle), Teddy Bridgewater is the team’s starter for this game at least.
Other significant injuries see Miami’s top two targets dealing with issues, as Tyreek Hill has a quad, and Jaylen Waddle has a groin injury.
On the other side of the ball, cornerback Xavien Howard has been hobbled with groin injuries and was even relegated to the sidelines with an ice wrap back in Week 4. Adding to the fact that cornerback Byron Jones has yet to be taken off the PUP list, depth defensive back Keion Crossen has glute and shoulder issues, so there’s another potential “next-man-up” situation in the secondary.
Despite the injuries, Miami heads into this road divisional game as the favorites. Here’s how the Dolphins could leave New Jersey with a win and improve to 4-1.
Miami must find the running game
Mike McDaniel is an advertised run-scheme specialist, yet, through four games, the Dolphins are dead last in rush attempts (80).
Newcomers to Miami, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, have yet to get fully going to start the season.
Mostert is currently leading the team in rushing yards (147) as well as yards per carry (3.8). Edmonds has three total touchdowns, but his 3.0 yards per rush average needs to improve.
Collectively, Miami averages 3.46 yards per attempt which is 28th in the league. They’re 29th in the NFL in yards per game (69.2), and with a solid Jets rushing defense (13th in the league), this is the week for McDaniel to get the rushing attack fixed and even featured.
The pass-rush must pressure Zach Wilson early and often
The Dolphins’ defense entered this season essentially at full strength from last year’s unit and even added veteran Melvin Ingram. September’s AFC Defensive Player of the Month has led the way for Miami in sacks (two). However, the unit that was ranked fifth in 2021 in that category, has been slow out of the gates.
Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah and second-year edge rusher Jaelan Phillips have combined for just two sacks through four games. Complementary guys like Christian Wilkins and Andrew Van Ginkel have yet to record a sack, and Jerome Baker has 0.5 to his credit.
Miami has generated 24 quarterback pressures but only converted on seven sacks as a team in 2022. Six of those pressures come from Ogbah and another three from Phillips.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer can choose to deploy his defensive backs in the pass rush, namely Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones. However, it’s the front seven that has to keep Wilson hurried, especially with a Miami secondary missing a key player in Byron Jones and a superstar cover-corner in Howard less than 100%.
The Dolphins can simply not afford to let Wilson sit in the pocket and navigate his reads. Making him uncomfortable will only help the secondary against a pretty solid group of Jets receivers in Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and rookie Garrett Wilson.
All hands on-deck for Miami's defensive backs
Segueing to the Miami secondary, if Howard can go, it would be safe to assume the cornerback opposite him will be undrafted rookie Kader Kohou.
Arguably the feel-good story in terms of a player making the roster, Kohou has exceeded expectations and is currently the NFL’s top-graded rookie defender and a top-10 cornerback overall.
Kohou was a major factor in Miami’s Week 1 win over the Patriots, and so far has 17 tackles, two passes defended and a forced fumble while allowing completions on 64% of targets.
His play makes it easier to keep Nik Needham in the slot and nickel corner role which he’s grown into nicely from moving from the boundary.
The key, here, is the health of Howard, and if there’s a next-man-up situation, the first look should be at Crossen. However, his questionable status could mean an emergency activation for Noah Igbinoghene, a player who, if his number is called, would need to answer it. If not, there may not be many more opportunities for him to be dialed.
Spot the run and end drives
In what could end up being a battle of the trenches on both sides, the Jets have a dual-running back look as well with Michael Carter and Breece Hall.
Neither rushing attack has been fearsome, as the Jets are currently ranked 28th to Miami’s 29th. The Dolphins’ defensive line, namely Wilkins and Zach Sieler, are run-stopping specialists and must contain New York’s duo.
More importantly, it’s the third-and-short scenarios that Miami must win to get their unit off the field. The Dolphins rank in the bottom third of the league in time of possession and stopping the Jets from sustaining long, time-consuming drives should be one of their highest priorities.
Bridgewater must control the tempo
If the defense can put Miami’s offense in position to win the time-of-possession battle, and present the offense with short fields, Bridgewater has the experience and ability to simply manage and not lose the game.
33-30 as an NFL starter, and 2-0 against the Jets franchise, Bridgewater is making his first start with the Dolphins. A Miami-bred former Pro Bowler, Bridgewater has to distribute the ball and let his playmakers do the rest.
While Hill and Waddle are questionable, expect them on the field, and look for complementary players like Trent Sherfield and River Cracraft to help Bridgewater over the middle.
Another person to look for, in terms of controlling a clock and chain-moving situation, would be Cedrick Wilson Jr. The free agent from Dallas has only recorded a pair of receptions back in Week 1 and wasn’t active for the Cincinnati Bengals game on Thursday night in Week 4.
It’ll be interesting to see what 10 days of preparation from McDaniel brings, as Bridgewater has been in this sort of spot before.
In fact, when called upon in New Orleans in 2019 to come in for five games for an injured Drew Brees, all Bridgewater did, was win all of them.
