District softball: Take a look at how each district shapes up for Polk County teams

Polk County has had at least one team in the state softball tournament in 33 of the 35 years in which the tournament has been held, including 16 years when there were multiple teams. So the odds are in the county’s favor that at least one of the top Polk teams will be playing in Clermont in mid-May, although some stiff competition are in the way of the top teams.

The first step to that goal of a final four berth begins this week in the softball district tournaments.

Here is how Polk teams should fare in districts and beyond.

6A-7: Forget about districts, the real question — can Bartow beat Melbourne?

District Rankings: 1. Bartow (24-1), 2. George Jenkins (20-5), 3. Plant City (11-12), 4. Lake Gibson (4-14), 5. Lakeland (4-12), 6. Kathleen (1-9).

Analysis: In most years, Bartow’s level of talent this year would make it a lock for a state title, but the top five teams in the state according to FHSAA rankings are all 6A teams. Bartow beat George Jenkins, the No. 2 team in the county, twice by scores of 10-0 and 8-2, so the Yellow Jackets are heavily favored to win the district title. Red Oxley sports and ERA of 0.10 and allowed two runs and one earned run all season and hasn’t been overused as Ryleigh Knowlton (1.27 ERA) and Brooklyn Tyson (0.99) have accounted for 48 percent of the innings. Despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the state, they’re still hitting .318 as a team, led by Shay Narcisse (.440), Julia Heter (.396), Kyndal Cornelius (.387) and McKenzie Gibson (.372). Oxley has been one of the top hitters in the county in her first three years, but has slumped recently .214 in her last 12 games. But she’s still batting .304 for the season. Bartow’s only loss has been to Melbourne and FSU-signee Jasmine Francik in early April. Francik also beat Bartow in the region finals two years ago, and it appears the two teams are on course to meet in the region finals this year. George Jenkins, with two wins over Lake Region, has emerged as the second-best team in the county. The emergence of pitchers Jazlyn Duque (1.67 ERA) and Layla Hinojosa (1.94) have been key. Duque missed a bout a month of pitching because of an injury, although she still hit, and has pitched three times since returning to the pitching circle. Freshman Olivia Friel (1.53) also has provided a boost pitching. Peyton Spears (.360) has been a big run producer with 29 RBIs and has more support this year with Duque (.333), Audrey Gideon (.324) and Olivia Newman (.315). Chelsea Odro (.417) and Hinojosa (.407) have about half the at-bats as regulars but each have 11 RBIs, and Hinojosa has seven extra-base hits among her 11 hits.

5A-6: Auburndale hoping tough schedule pays off

District Rankings: 1. Winter Garden Horizon (18-5), 2. Auburndale (9-13), 3. Liberty (7-11), 4. Lake Buena Vista (3-17), 5. Jones (3-13).

Analysis: Auburndale is a lock for the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the region behind district rival Horizon, despite a losing record. The Bloodhounds boast the toughest strength of schedule in the region and likely will face Horizon for the district title. Hailey Bradley leads the lineup and is batting .371, and Alyssa Wright is batting .323. Jordan Honeycutt has taken over as the No. 1 pitcher and has a 3.62 ERA. The Bloodhounds have split with Lake Wales and have a win over McKeel.

4A-6: Is it Lake Region’s turn to go to state or can Lake Wales repeat?

District Rankings: 1. Lake Region (17-7), 2. Lake Wales (13-12), 3. Mulberry (11-10),

Analysis: Lake Region and Lake Wales each have been to the state tournament three times in the past 10 years with one state title. Lake Wales beat Lake Region the past two years to get to state but sustained heavy losses to graduations. Lake Region has been the best team in the district. Four of its seven loss have been to Bartow and George Jenkins. Lake Region has played the toughest schedule in 4A and is looking to use that experience to make another run at the final four. Makenna Meadows is one of the top all-around players in the county. She’s batting .406 and is the second-best pitcher behind Oxley, boasting a 1.07 ERA against strong competition. Kristen Aldridge (.348), Camryn Fail (.333), and Chic Jenkins (.281). But the question concerning the Thunder is if their lineup is deep enough. Lake Region is No. 2 in the Region behind Eustis. Lake Wales has played the third-toughest schedule in the county. Lake Wales began the season 3-7 but is 10-5 and is looking to repeat last season’s performance by peaking late. After a slow start the batting has continually improved. One of three returning starters, sophomore Keira Davis is batting .480 and has been red hot. Junior Jamie Sepsick is the top new starter with a .354 batting average with a team-leading 24 RBIs. Florida Southern-signee Keira Morris is hitting .294 with a team-high four home runs and is second with 18 RBIs. Johalis Rivera-Colon is hitting .338. Karsyn Maddox is batting .255 but is batting .391 over the past nine games. Anna Conroy had a 3.19 ERA in her championship season and has lowered it to 1.94 this year. Like last year, she has gotten stronger as the season progressed, posting a 0.70 ERA in her last nine appearances. Mulberry will be looking to play spoiler. Gracie Donalson is batting .446, and basketball sensation Lorianys Castanon Cruz is batting .403.

3A-10: McKeel favored in district

District Rankings: 1. McKeel (10-14), 2. Frostproof (11-9), 3. Lake Placid (8-14), 4. Avon Park (13-7), 5. Tenoroc (6-9), 6. Discovery (1-13).

Analysis: McKeel has the third-toughest strength of the schedule and No. 5 in the region. The Wildcats will make the playoffs, but will face an uphill battle in the postseason. Emma Skipper (.306), Isabelle Morrell (.299), Malayla Miller (.295), Olivia Villa (.286) and Amarri Durant (.283) are the top hitters. Chloe Lanier (3.27 ERA) and Skipper (2.96) are the Wildcats pitchers. Frostproof is led by pitcher Belle Mancillas, who has signed with Santa Fe Community College. She’s the No. 1 pitcher with a 1.24 ERA and is batting .345. Junior Jordan Brantley, who went 7 for 8 with three home runs and 11 RBIs this past week, is batting .396 on the season. Menzie Neal (.344), Trinity Gary (.327) and Callie Hayes (.317) add depth to the lineup. The district is up for grabs as McKeel and Frostproof split regular-season meetings.

2A-9: LCS’s youth promises bright future

District Rankings: 1. Lakeland Christian (14-3), 2. Seffner Christian (12-2), 3. Fort Meade (12-8), 4. Valrico Foundation Christian (3-9). 5. All Saints (5-10), Oasis (1-13)

Analysis: With the exception of senior McKenna Gravitt, all of the Vikings players are seventh and eighth graders. They’ve shown their talent with the way they’ve feasted on a less-than-challenging schedule. Their best win has been against Mulberry, 7-6. The Vikings are favored to win the district, but aren’t ready to make a deep run. Gravity (.400) provides the senior leadership, and Rylan Rolleson (.488), Paityn Donalson (.596) and Callie Thornton (.526) are among the young players with bright futures. Fort Meade likely will play Seffner Christian in the semifinals. The Miners, No 7 in the region, should be able to hang on to a top eight in region ranking to make the playoffs. Marleigh Carroll (.524) is the Miners’ top hitter with help from Cailynn Johnson (.339), Ryleigh Grace (.319).

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Take a look at how each district shapes up for Polk softball