Dispatch's horse racing desk expands, makes picks ahead of Kentucky Derby: Arace
In the days leading up to Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, The Dispatch’s racing desk added a fourth member, Nicole Kraft, who had at least one of her college degrees paid for by a horse. The horse was Best of Dani, who in 1987 was the harness racing Horse of the Year in California. Kraft was Best of Dani’s caretaker and, later, his owner. Best of Dani had deep withers.
The Dispatch’s horse racing desk includes Bob “The Clanchise” Clancy, former horse racing editor at the Hartford Courant; Scott “Dutch” Davis, former horse racing editor at Ohio’s Greatest Home Newspaper; and yours truly. Over the years, Clancy and Davis have cashed a lot of tickets and I have provided a necessary counterbalance.
We have proven to be semi-reliable. Last year: Clancy picked the Derby winner for the second year in a row; Clancy and I each picked the Belmont winner for the second year in a row and Clancy nailed the Belmont trifecta; and Davis picked the top four in the Preakness, albeit in the wrong order. See? Semi-reliable.
Kraft teaches journalism at Ohio State and remains active as an author, editor and sports journalist. She is a veteran equestrian and handicapper. We invited “The Professor” to join our desk anyway. She made the mistake of accepting.
Saturday’s weather forecast for the 150th running of the Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville is, well, unsettled. There will be showers and thunderstorms in the area. What will that mean for the track at 6:57 p.m., the official post time? Hard to say right now. A wet or sloppy track will require a different tack to handicapping.
Sierra Leone, the second-favorite with morning-line odds of 3-1, won on a sloppy track in the Louisiana Derby in February and was nosed out by Dornoch (20-1) on a sloppy track at the Remsen Stakes in New York in December. On Saturday, Dornoch will be on the rail in the No. 1 gate and Sierra Leone will be next door in the No. 2.
Mystik Dan (No. 3 gate, 20-1) romped to victory on a muddy track in the Southwest Stakes in February. This year’s Derby favorite, Fierceness (No. 17, 5-2), broke his maiden in the mud of Saratoga in August. He hasn’t had to deal with the slop since. Just a Touch (No. 8, 10-1), another of the favorites, also broke his maiden in the slop and finished second in a quagmire at the Gotham Stakes two months ago.
As noted, Fierceness is coming out of the No. 17 gate, which has never produced a Derby winner. He is the top story in the lead-up to this race: When he is in form and feels like running, he is by far the best horse in his 3-year-old class. But the problem is, he shows up only half the time. The question for handicappers, then, is do you bet on him to show up? Or do you fade him? There’s more value in the latter.
'The Professor' Nicole Kraft's pick
Kraft is playing Just a Touch on top of Sierra Leone, Forever Young (10-1) and Resilience (20-1).
“I’m not opposed to betting a favorite. 'Tis better to cash small than not at all,” Kraft said. “Actual or near favorites have captured eight of the last 10 Derbys, although the two most recent winners paid big bucks (Mage at 15-1 last year) and really big bucks (Rich Strike at 80-1 in 2022). Fierceness wears the favorite’s crown this year, but it is tarnished by his No. 17 post and the fact he won just two of four graded stakes, finishing in third and seventh in the others.”
Kraft likes Just a Touch, trained by veteran Brad Cox. She notes that the horse’s sire is Justify, the 2018 Derby winner. The pedigree is important. The Derby is 1¼ miles (10-furlongs) in distance. These horses are pre-K in human years. They're unpredictable, and they’ve never raced such a distance before and likely never will again.
“Just a Touch is lightly raced, with just three starts, winning one and finishing second in two others,” Kraft said. "He could be peaking at the right time. Sierra Leone beat Just a Touch in their last start together, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, and has been a different horse since trainer Chad Brown added blinkers. He has push-to-pass acceleration that might just allow him to slingshot around tiring horses on the final turn.”
Kraft likes the prices she might get with Forever Young and her long shot, Resilience, on her undercard.
Scott Davis' pick
Davis is playing Catching Freedom (No. 4, 8-1) on top of Track Phantom (No. 11, 20-1), Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
Catching Freedom is a closer. At the Louisiana Derby five weeks ago he went from last to first to win by a length on a dry track. It was impressive.
“I’m going to go with Catching Freedom to win with a late move after a stalking trip,” Davis said. “Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat will win by crossing the line first this time. Each has a Derby win after a DQ.”
Cox won with Mandaloun in 2021 – after a post-race drug test led to the disqualification of Medina Spirit. Prat won with Country House in 2019 – after a Maximum Security was disqualified for swerving out of his lane down the stretch.
Now, trainer and jockey are joined behind and atop Catching Freedom.
“Horse and mojo feel right,” Davis said. “Always looking for a price, I’ll take Track Phantom second in front of feared Fierceness and Sierra Leone.”
Bob Clancy's pick
Clancy is playing Just a Touch on top of Fierceness, Honor Marie (No. 7 gate, 20-1) and Sierra Leone.
“Just a Touch contested a fast pace in the Blue Grass Stakes and held on well before being overtaken by Sierra Leone,” Clancy said. “The son of the 2018 Triple Crown champion (Justify) projects to get a stalking trip behind Track Phantom and perhaps Dornoch and should be able to handle the additional furlong. This steadily improving colt was unraced at 2, but the need for that foundation was debunked by his sire and again by Mage last year. Considering his debut and his runner-up finish in the Gotham, any moisture in the track will surely help his cause.”
Clancy points out that Fierceness’ trainer, Todd Pletcher, and his jockey, John Velasquez, teamed to win the 2017 Derby with Always Dreaming. Yet The Clanchise looks askance at the favorite, way out there in the No. 17 gate, amid a 20-horse field.
“Fierceness is clearly the fastest horse in this field,” Clancy said. “A slight regression off his top figure at Gulfstream is possible. But the bigger issue is that in the two starts in which he did not have a clean getaway, he was unable to overcome that difficulty."
Michael Arace's pick
I rode Oxbow, trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lucas, to victory in 2013 Preakness Stakes. Actually, the legendary Gary Stevens, who was 50 years old at the time, rode Oxbow. I just put $5 on his nose. I remember that like I remember the $15 I bet on 15-1 Ferdinand, with 54-year-old Willie Shoemaker up, at the 1986 Kentucky Derby.
Lukas, aka “The Coach,” is 88 years old. He has trained four Kentucky Derby winners – but none in this century. This year, he brings his 50th starter to his 30th Derby. The horse is Just Steel (No. 6, 20-1). The jockey is Keith Asmussen, son of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who trains Derby contender Track Phantom.
Just Steel is another son of Justify, so he has the pedigree for the distance. His last race, a second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby, was his best. He is the most experienced runner in the field with 12 starts, and he has won at Churchill downs. I’m betting he’s not tired – he’s well-prepared by The Coach. I see a stalking trip for him out of the No. 6 gate. I see a price.
I’ve got Just Steel over Resilience, Dornoch and Sierra Leone.
Good luck.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Kentucky Derby 2024: A look at the horses, betting odds ahead of race
