Detroit Tigers 2024 roster prediction 4.0: Pitching competition is going down to the wire

LAKELAND, Fla. — Five of six weeks are in the books.

The Detroit Tigers have entered the final week of spring training, with Opening Day coming soon. In 10 days, the Tigers will clash with the Chicago White Sox on March 28 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago.

The American League Central showdown begins the 162-game schedule.

Here's a look at our fourth (and final) version of how the Tigers should fill their 26-man Opening Day roster for the 2024 season, following three full weeks of spring training games:

Catcher: Jake Rogers

Rogers, who has always been an above-average defender, emerged as the Tigers' primary catcher last season because of his offense, hitting .221 with 21 home runs despite a poor 32.3% strikeout rate.

The 28-year-old could take a step backward if his power declines, and he could take a step forward if his strikeout rate improves. On defense, Rogers threw out just 16% of base stealers last season and plans to showcase his arm strength this season with new movements learned from backup catcher Carson Kelly.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Jake Rogers became 'what everybody is looking for' at catcher position

First base: Spencer Torkelson

The 24-year-old might play close to 162 games, but he won't play every game at first base. Mark Canha and Andy Ibáñez are expected to play first base whenever Torkelson shifts to designated hitter.

Torkelson hit .233 with 31 home runs and a slightly below-average 25% strikeout rate in 159 games last season, starting 154 of those games at first base. He would benefit from putting more balls in play. If he does, he could become the first Tiger to hit 40 home runs in a season since Miguel Cabrera in 2013.

MORE ABOUT HIM: How Tigers' Spencer Torkelson developed a thick skin to his own voice

Second base: Colt Keith

Keith is going to hit in the big leagues.

There's virtually no doubt about that, but the only unknown is whether Keith — who signed a long-term contract extension before his MLB debut — will stick at second base. The 22-year-old looks comfortable working up the middle on defense because he makes the routine plays. The Tigers have instructed Keith to prioritize the routine plays and master his double-play footwork before trying to expand his range.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Inside Colt Keith's decision to sign contract with Tigers: 'This is his dream'

Shortstop: Javier Báez

Báez is experiencing the worst spring training of his career after grinding through the worst two seasons of his career. The 31-year-old is hitting .094 (3-for-32) with one walk and 12 strikeouts across 35 plate appearances, spanning 13 games.

It's that bad.

Báez, owed $98 million over the next four seasons, hit .230 with 26 home runs across 280 games in his first two seasons with the Tigers. It's shaping up to be another bad season on offense, but the Tigers remain hopeful that the former All-Star shortstop will provide elite defense.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Javier Báez thinks stronger back, core muscles can help revive his career

Third base: Gio Urshela

One of three right-handed hitters — Urshela, Andy Ibáñez and Matt Vierling — are in the mix to emerge as the primary third baseman, plus left-handed hitting Zach McKinstry. Here's how the third-base reps have been distributed this spring: 39 of 56 innings for Urshela (69.6%), 29 of 60 innings for Ibáñez (48.3%), 26 of 57 innings for McKinstry (45.6%) and 14 of 58 innings for Vierling (24.1%).

Urshela, whom the Tigers signed to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, has gotten the most reps and is the best defender, but he isn't hitting the ball hard or driving the ball to the gaps in his return from a broken pelvis.

Whoever hits right-handed pitching the best will get the most playing time at third base. That is going to take some time to figure out, but Urshela should be first in line for the bulk of the workload, followed by Vierling.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Gio Urshela is 'working with hitting coaches' while preparing for season

Outfield: Riley Greene (LF), Parker Meadows (CF), Mark Canha (RF)

The ballpark dimensions will determine the corner outfield spots.

The Tigers have four outfield-only players in Greene, Meadows, Canha and Kerry Carpenter. Meadows is a full-time center fielder, keeping Greene, Canha and Carpenter in the corners. All three have spent time at both corner outfield positions in spring training.

Carpenter fits best in right field whenever he isn't the designated hitter, but Greene and Canha fit at both positions. The Tigers will benefit from Greene in left field and Meadows in center field at Comerica Park to cover the most ground with their best outfielders, leaving Canha and Carpenter to handle right field.

At Fenway Park, as an example, the Tigers will probably prefer Canha and Carpenter in front of the Green Monster in left field and Greene in right field, simply because right field is more spacious than left field, requiring more range.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers veteran Mark Canha reports to 'first day of school' as new guy in clubhouse

Designated hitter: Kerry Carpenter

Carpenter hit .278 with 20 home runs in 118 games last season.

The 26-year-old has proven he can hit, and now, he is determined to be an everyday outfielder for the Tigers. He has a pathway to being the primary right fielder because of his above-average arm strength and sprint speed, but he needs to improve his range. Carpenter, a left-handed hitter, will play every game — either in right field or as the designated hitter — against right-handed pitchers, but he probably won't start against left-handed pitchers.

His defense has gotten a lot better over the past two seasons, so don't count him out.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Kerry Carpenter met a girl, hit a home run and realized something

Bench: Carson Kelly (C), Matt Vierling (UTIL), Andy Ibáñez (UTIL), Zach McKinstry (UTIL)

Vierling has profiled as a fourth outfielder — rather than a starting third baseman, as once projected — since the Tigers signed Urshela. The 27-year-old can play all three outfield positions, as well as third base. If Vierling rakes against right-handed pitchers, the Tigers might increase his opportunities at third base. He will start in center field against left-handed pitchers if Meadows struggles in those matchups.

Ibáñez, 30, will find his way into starting lineup against left-handed pitchers and enter off the bench as a pinch-hitter off the bench against left-handed relievers, but if he hits right-handed pitching, he could steal playing time from Urshela at third base, even though Urshela is a better defender.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Don't forget about Andy Ibáñez. He is 'ready to play' wherever Tigers need him

McKinstry performs his best at the plate when he draws walks, as exemplified by his performance last season. The 28-year-old hit .301 with 20 walks across 26 games in May, but in the other five months, he hit .217 with 24 walks across 122 games.

This spring, McKinstry has 10 walks in 35 plate appearances.

That's encouraging.

The Tigers need McKinstry for several reasons. He is a left-handed hitter who plays above-average defense in the infield and outfield and serves as the backup shortstop behind Báez.

Starting rotation: Tarik Skubal (LHP), Kenta Maeda (RHP), Jack Flaherty (RHP), Matt Manning (RHP), Casey Mize (RHP)

Three pitchers — Manning, Mize and right-hander Reese Olson — are competing for two spots in the Opening Day starting rotation. The loser of the competition is expected to be optioned to Triple-A Toledo. An injury would solve the problem, but everyone in the rotation is healthy.

All three pitchers are dominating in spring training: Manning has a 3.75 ERA with four walks and 15 strikeouts across 12 innings; Mize, a 3.38 ERA with seven walks and 10 strikeouts across 10⅔ innings; Olson, a 3.68 ERA with four walks and 14 strikeouts across 14⅔ innings.

Manning has been the sharpest of the three pitchers.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Matt Manning has new edge and new weapons. He's pitching better than ever

Something to keep in mind: Olson has 123 days of service time after making his MLB debut in June 2023, whereas Mize has two years, 111 days and Manning has two years, 98 days. The Tigers don't have anything to gain from a service time standpoint by optioning Mize and Manning, but that's not the case with Olson.

Olson is currently on the borderline for Super Two status if he stays on the major-league roster for each of the next two seasons, but if he gets optioned to Triple-A Toledo for a few weeks, he won't have any chance of qualifying for Super Two status, which is the difference between being eligible for salary arbitration for three years or four years before entering free agency.

The specific cutoff date for Super Two status varies on a year-to-year basis, but in recent history, the Super Two cutoff has been as high as two years, 128 days and as low as two years, 115 days.

Bullpen: Jason Foley (RHP), Alex Lange (RHP), Andrew Chafin (LHP), Shelby Miller (RHP), Tyler Holton (LHP), Will Vest (RHP), Beau Brieske (RHP), Joey Wentz (LHP)

The Tigers aren't going to employ a six-man rotation, so expect eight relievers in the bullpen. Six of them are locked in: Foley, Lange, Chafin, Miller, Holton and Vest, which leaves Brieske, Wentz and right-hander Alex Faedo in competition for the final two spots.

Wentz, a left-handed reliever, has a 2.38 ERA with four walks and 14 strikeouts across 11⅓ innings in six relief appearances this spring. He doesn't have any minor-league options remaining, so he would land on waivers if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, and he would need to clear waivers before ending up in Triple-A Toledo. A different team will likely claim him off waivers if that happens, for several reasons.

MORE ABOUT HIM: Tigers' Alex Faedo absolutely had to learn new changeup. Will it keep him in MLB?

Assuming Wentz is on the Opening Day roster, that pits Brieske and Faedo — right-handed relievers with options — for the final spot. Faedo has more potential than Brieske to be a starting pitcher after boosting his pitch mix with a new changeup, making him a fit for Triple-A Toledo's rotation.

Brieske fits best as a high-leverage reliever with the Tigers.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers roster prediction 4.0: Bullpen spots still up for grabs