Detroit Lions playoff game vs. Los Angeles Rams: Dave Birkett scouting report, prediction
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Detroit Lions (12-5)
The coaches: Lions — Dan Campbell (29-33-1 overall, 24-26-1 with Lions, 0-0 in playoffs); Rams — Sean McVay (70-45 overall, 70-45 with Rams, 7-3 in playoffs).
Last game: Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings, 30-20; Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers, 21-20.
Last meeting: Oct. 24, 2021 in L.A.: Rams won, 28-19.
Key matchups
Rams DTs Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner vs. Lions interior OL: Donald is arguably the best defensive tackle in NFL history. He’s still playing at a high level at 32 years old, and has a new pass rushing partner in Turner, the impressive rookie from Wake Forest.
Donald and Turner combined for 17 sacks and 29 quarterback hits this season, and Turner has seven sacks in the Rams’ past seven games. The Rams bounce their interior defenders all over the line, so left guard Jonah Jackson, center Frank Ragnow and right guard Graham Glasgow will have to work in unison to keep the pocket from condensing on Jared Goff up the middle.
Ragnow had another Pro Bowl season, while Glasgow and Jackson have been mostly steady with a few hiccups in pass protection. Lions coach Dan Campbell said, “I still like our matchup. I love our O-line and we’ve seen a lot of good defenses this year. We’ve faced a lot of good guys, a lot of good fronts, and have accepted those challenges. So, this will be no different. This will be a big challenge, our guys accept it and it’s the strength of our team.”
Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Lions DB Brian Branch: Puka Nacua has gotten most of the headlines in the Rams’ receiving corps this year for his standout rookie season, but Kupp remains as dangerous as any receiver in the NFL.
The 2021 receiving triple-crown winner for leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns, Kupp had 737 yards receiving in 12 games this year and should be rested after sitting out last week. He’s Matthew Stafford’s favorite target in got-to-have-it situations, and the Lions will be tuned in to where he is whenever he’s on the field.
Branch has had a fine rookie season. He has three interceptions, one forced fumble and one sack, and has been his most effective playing at slot cornerback. He has a tough assignment in his first playoff game against the savvy Kupp, but if he aces his test the Lions should be in a good position to advance.
Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Rams run defense
The Lions have been one of the best rushing teams in the NFL all season (135.9 yards per game), but haven’t run the ball particularly well their past two games. Negative-yard plays were an issue against the Dallas Cowboys, and the timing was off on some blocks up front last week.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said Thursday he simplified the rush plan for this week, and make no mistake: The Lions still will lean heavily on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery, in the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his career, has been effective wearing teams down as the sledgehammer in the Lions’ two-back attack, while Gibbs adds speed to the running game.
The Rams held opponents to 88.9 yards rushing while winning seven of their final eight regular season games. Donald and Turner are disruptive run defenders, and Johnson said the Rams pop up the middle in the rest of their defense, with middle linebacker Earnest Jones (145 tackles) and safety Jordan Fuller (three INTs, three forced fumbles) having strong years, too. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Rams pass defense
Goff insists this is just another game, but the Lions quarterback is facing his old team and the coach that cast him to the curb three years ago. Hurt and motivated by the way things ended in L.A., Goff has played some of the best football of his career in Detroit. He finished second in the NFL in passing yards this season and completed a career-best 67.3% of his passes.
The Lions have an abundance of weapons in the passing game, though rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is questionable with a knee injury. LaPorta finished second on the team in receptions and yards, and his absence would be a significant loss if he can’t go. Amon-Ra St. Brown was just named first-team All-Pro, and Jameson Williams is expected back in the lineup as a deep threat. Gibbs has more to offer than he has delivered this year in the pass game.
The Rams finished the regular season ranked 20th against the pass (231.1 ypg), but they’ve done a good job limiting big pass plays (6.5 ypp). Donald and Turner are relentless pass rushers, and rookie Byron Young (eight sacks) can’t be ignored on the edge. The Lions do have an advantage on the perimeter, though cornerbacks Cobie Durant and Ahkello Witherspoon have a combined completion percentage against of 49.7% this year, according to Pro Football Reference. Edge: Lions
Rams run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Rams have reconfigured their rushing attack since the Goff days, when they leaned heavily on Todd Gurley and the stretch running game. Now, they’re more physical in the middle of their line, inserting receivers as blockers and forcing cornerbacks to tackle.
Kyren Williams finished third in the NFL in rushing this year (1,144 yards) despite missing five games with injuries. He’s not the biggest back, but averaged 5 yards an attempt and nearly 2 yards after contact per carry this season, and gets to the line quickly. Williams did have three fumbles this season with two lost.
The Lions finished second in the NFL in rush defense at 88.8 yards per game and didn’t allow more than 69 rushing yards in a game to a running back all season. Alim McNeill returned to the starting lineup after a four-game absence due to a knee injury last week, and the Lions need him at the top of his game Sunday against one of the best guards in the NFL, Kevin Dotson. Edge: Rams
Rams pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
Stafford was the best quarterback in modern Lions history, throwing for more than 45,000 yards in his 12 seasons in Detroit. He won a Super Bowl with the Rams and won’t be intimidated by the environment here, either the reception he receives (boos?) or the ear-splitting noise.
The Rams’ passing game presents big problems for a Lions defense that ranks 27th in the league against the pass and has been shredded by top receivers in recent weeks. Kupp and Nacua are one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and Nacua has been excellent making yards after the catch. Williams and tight end Tyler Higbee (49 catches) also are dangerous receivers, and Stafford has the guts to make any throw on the planet.
Aidan Hutchinson has five sacks and one forced fumble in the past two weeks, and the Lions will need a similar effort from their top pass rusher Sunday, especially if they play more man-to-man coverage than usual to try and keep Nacua and Kupp in check. The Lions have one of the better safety trios in the NFL, but their cornerbacks have been prone to coverage busts when left one-on-one. Edge: Rams
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Special teams
The Lions have been among the best teams in the NFL at controlling drive starts this year. They challenge teams on kickoffs and have gotten strong play from punter Jack Fox, though they will be without punt returner Kalif Raymond on Sunday. One of St. Brown, Donovan Peoples-Jones or Maurice Alexander will handle returns in Raymond’s absence. Campbell has never been afraid to call fake punts in big games, and the Lions surely have one at the ready if they need it. One concern: Michael Badgley has missed two extra points (one blocked) in four games and doesn’t have the strongest leg. If this game comes down to a long field goal, the Lions could be in trouble.
The Rams had one of the worst statistical special teams units in the NFL this season. They finished last in punt return average allowed, 28th in kick return defense, last in kick return average and 28th in punt return average. They gave up one blocked punt and two punt return touchdowns, and missed 11 field goals of 40-plus yards. The Rams re-signed Brett Maher to handle kicking duties this week, but like the Lions, don’t want the game coming down to a long kick to win. From a "hidden yardage" standpoint, the Lions have a big advantage. Edge: Lions
Prediction
I don’t love this matchup for the Lions. In fact, of all the NFC wild-card contenders, I thought the Rams were the trickiest draw. They played some of the best football in the NFL late in the season, have one of the most dominant defensive players the game has ever seen and have a passing game with the talent at quarterback and receiver to give the Lions’ underwhelming secondary fits. But I think the Lions have a more complete roster overall, and homefield advantage has to count for something. The atmosphere Sunday will be unmatched for the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years, and in a game where one or two mistakes can make all the difference, that could be enough to put the Lions over the top. The Lions need to get their running game going again so not everything is on Goff’s shoulders against his old team. If that happens, and if Goff plays mistake-free football, I see the Lions advancing to a divisional round rematch with the Cowboys next week. Pick: Lions 28, Rams 27.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions will get first playoff win in 32 years. Here's why.
