What is the deal with all these undrafted RBs shaking up fantasy?
By Eric McClung, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports
Roaring down the highway of the 2018 fantasy football season is a hot rod. It has a shiny chrome frame of rising metallic flames placed above the rear bumper. The frame holds a vanity license plate that reads “UDFA RB SZN” in big bright letters.
As the exit signs begin to appear for the fantasy playoffs, a number of young running backs that were not selected on draft day are making a big impact.
Five of the top-10 running backs in Expected Points Added (EPA), also known as RB Success Rate, are undrafted players the last two seasons. This is astounding news.
Third on the list is Phillip Lindsay, who is on track to finish his rookie campaign as the NFL’s signature surprise fantasy RB1. Additionally, Matt Breida is enjoying a second-year breakout after running the ball well at the end of his rookie season.
While Lindsay and Breida have been owned nearly all season, Gus Edwards, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Adams are UDFA running backs who not only are at or near the top of the success rate chart, but also were widely undrafted in fantasy earlier this year. Each was recently thrust into a workhorse role where they should continue to thrive for the remainder of the season.
While the sample sizes on these players are still limited, PlayerProfiler exists to provide valuable insights.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Melvin Gordon came into last week’s game very questionable due to an ongoing hamstring issue. He talked his way into playing after it appeared the team was going to rest him against the two-win Arizona Cardinals. Up 28-10 to start the second half, Gordon suffered a MCL injury on a double reverse that will likely sideline him for a couple of weeks. In relief, Austin Ekeler scored his first rushing touchdown of the season.
Ekeler is a second-year player that was a small-school mega-producer. He scored 63 touchdowns in 40 games and blew past 1,000 yards of offense all four years at Division II Western State. Ekeler then wowed scouts at his pro day, evidenced by an exceptional 132.9 Burst Score (94th percentile) and 11.06 Agility Score (84th percentile). How he went undrafted remains one of the great unsolved football mysteries.
As a rookie, Ekeler made an impact during a stretch of midseason games before suffering a broken hand. Ekeler was most active in the offense from Weeks 7-14. In addition to scoring four touchdowns in seven games, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 39 attempts while snagging 17 of 21 targets. Ekeler’s explosiveness is demonstrated by a league-leading True YPC, which factors out big runs, and Breakaway Run Rate, which calculates a rusher’s percentage of carries of 15 yards or more.
For fantasy purposes, Ekeler had a pair of games with double-digit carries earlier in the season and was likely owned in most leagues prior to Gordon’s injury. He may not approach the 80 percent snap share that Gordon was seeing in recent weeks but should be started in most cases.
If Gordon were to miss additional games, the Chargers see two of the most favorable defenses to fantasy running backs in Weeks 14 and 15. With a dynamic advanced metrics profile and featured role in a high-efficiency NFL offense, Ekeler looks the part of a fantasy league winner the rest of the way.
Gus Edwards, Ravens
After averaging 5.4 yards per carry during his first two seasons as the No. 3 running back for the University of Miami, Gus Edwards was the front runner to become the starter in 2015. Then he suffered a season-ending foot injury just days before the opener. Upon returning in 2016, Edwards slid back down the depth chart due to Mark Walton’s breakout. For his final year of eligibility, Edwards transferred to Rutgers.
Playing as the lead back for the worst offense in the Big Ten, Edwards only mustered 816 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in 12 games. While his 4.3 college yards per carry is a red flag, Edwards’ advanced metrics prospect profile indicates that he possesses above-average speed and explosiveness, evidenced by his 105.0 (78th percentile) Speed Score, which adjusted 40-times based on player size.
Seemingly out of nowhere, Edwards has rushed for over 110 rushing yards in back-to-back games. Unfortunately, an ankle injury puts his status for Week 13 very much in doubt. If he is able to go (he returned to practice on Thursday), he’ll likely continue to block out Alex Collins. Baltimore listed Collins as a full participant in Friday’s practice, yet he was inactive on Sunday. He did not practice at all this week as of Wednesday, either.
Josh Adams, Eagles
According to media reports, the Eagles are the last to know that Josh Adams is their lead running back. After he posted a 62-percent snap share in week 12, Philadelphia continues to inexplicably cling to a “hot hand” approach. At home against the Giants last week, Adams rushed 22 times for 84 yards and scored. He also had a long touchdown run called back due to penalty earlier in the game. Adams was not used in the passing game, although he was targeted six times the week prior.
Adams went shockingly undrafted after exceeding 1,100 yards from scrimmage in each of his final two years at Notre Dame. In his final season, Adams posted an exceptionally efficient 6.9 college yards per carry. At 6’2″, Adams is very tall and long for a running back. Yet, he posted an excellent 3-cone time at his pro day, which extrapolates to a 10.95 Agility Score (93rd percentile). It suggests that he possesses the size and lateral quickness to succeed both between-the-tackles and out in space.
While the Eagles passing game has struggled to incorporate Golden Tate, Adams has thrived in recent weeks. After his Week 12 performance, he is starting to look like a featured player who will be asked to shoulder quite a load going forward. Fire up Adams in FLEX at home against a rudderless Washington team.
