Davante Adams’ fantasy outlook in first season with the Raiders

In the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast, Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don break down what they expect to see from Raiders WR Davante Adams this season

Video Transcript

MATT HARMON: The best wide receiver in football changed teams this year and Allen Robinson is going to the Los Angeles-- No, I'm just kidding. Davante Adams changed his teams, goes from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders. Best case scenario for Adams? And I also want you to tell me where you fall closer in this range of outcomes between best case and worst case. So let's paint the best case scenario for Davante Adams with the Raiders.

DALTON DEL DON: Sure. He's was going indoors. There's the college connection with Derek Carr, division full of shootouts. It's possible Josh McDaniels is good.

I mean, his second go around trying this. So yeah, again, indoors, the numbers he put up is senior year in Fresno State were video game-like. So yeah, there's certainly a lot to like, for as you called him already, "the game's best receiver."

MATT HARMON: And I think too, a part of what could make this, there's obviously concerns about there's a quarterback drop off, that's a given. Derek Carr's a good quarterback. He's not some bum, but he's not Aaron Rodgers, so there is an inherent, an inarguable quarterback dropoff. But one thing I have said about Adams that could be good is that the pace of play there could be higher.

The pass attempts could be greater for the Raiders than they would have been in Green Bay. Now, when I do my projections, it weighs pretty heavily on the last three years of playcaller data. So that doesn't make the Raiders look that great, right? Because I've got them like 25th in pass attempts, because the last three years, Josh McDaniels has been very pass heavy, or have been very run heavy with the Cam Newton year, Mac Jones rookie year. But, Dalton, if we see the Raiders kind of go back to some of those Tom Brady, Josh McDaniels-like offenses, that would be good for Davante Adams' overall volume, which would help offset some of the quarterback downgrade.

DALTON DEL DON: No doubt, yeah. So can I give you my downside now? Because I'm actually--


DALTON DEL DON: --kind of pessimistic here. So there is a quarterback downgrade, as much as we like Derek Carr, obviously, Aaron Rodgers is Inner Circle Hall of Famer and the connection, just the rapport they had. He would just trust him, just throw the football in the middle of the route type stuff. But even more importantly for fantasy, the goal line work. I mean, how many cheap touchdowns would Adams get around there, just bunny passes right in front of him that were essentially rushes?

He's also far more target competition now with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. You may laugh at that, but the guy gets a ton of targets out of the slot. And McDaniels, it's a very important position as a slot, and Renfrow is there. Davante Adams lined up in the slot 30% of the snaps last year with Green Bay and he's, quote, unquote, "been almost exclusively lined up outside" with Las Vegas so far, so that's not great.

He was just paid. I mean, just paid a ton. Going to turn 30 this offseason, switching teams. Before we even get started, I should have said this, a great [? Elliot ?] [? Kryst ?] tweet, "Since 1992, quality receivers who have switched teams have seen a 20% reduction in fantasy performance."

Now, maybe some of this is natural regression with good players signing contracts, but it is something. It is something. Mike Lombardi is also the OC in the Raiders.

I mean, I don't know how much confidence you have in Mike Lombardi's son, but I don't have a ton. So after all, saying all that, Davante Adams is my wide receiver 6 and I even have CeeDee Lamb ahead of him. So for me, the downside outweighs the upside here.