Dark horse contenders for the 2023-24 College Football Playoff: Who is this year’s TCU?

Thirty-six bids have been handed out for the College Football Playoff in the format’s nine years of existence. They've been handed out to just 14 programs. Last season, TCU came out of nowhere and became the latest to join the club.

TCU was in its first season under new head coach Sonny Dykes but became one of the biggest stories of the season by going a perfect 12-0 in the regular season. The Horned Frogs dropped a heartbreaker to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game but rebounded by upsetting Michigan in the CFP semifinals. The national title game loss to Georgia wasn’t pretty, but it did not diminish what was an incredible — and improbable — season for the Horned Frogs.

Can another team pull a TCU and make a surprise trip to the College Football Playoff before the format expands from four to 12 teams in 2024?

Using BetMGM’s “to make the College Football Playoff” odds (with a minimum of +2000 as the parameter for this exercise), we examined the teams in each Power Five conference to try to identify potential long shots to earn a spot in next year’s field.

ACC: Miami (+4000)

Many are pointing to Louisville as a potential sleeper in the ACC in 2023 with hometown hero Jeff Brohm in place as head coach and an extremely forgiving schedule. Louisville pretty closely fits the blueprint TCU laid down last year, but there’s another ACC team I’ve got my eye on: Miami.

Miami’s first season under Mario Cristobal was a disaster but now the Hurricanes are flying under the radar entering the 2023 season.

Last season, both of Cristobal’s coordinator hires failed spectacularly, especially with Josh Gattis on offense. All of the promise Miami showed in 2021, particularly from quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, was nowhere to be found. On defense, Miami displayed lackluster tackling, gave up too many big plays and showed a lack of effort at times.

But there are reasons to believe Miami can turn things around in 2023.

Cristobal has put in a lot of work crafting this roster, and there’s plenty of talent. Van Dyke, a star in 2021, should be a much better fit in new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s system, which has Air Raid roots but comes with a sense of physicality that Cristobal craves. And Van Dyke is going to play behind a much-improved offensive line bolstered with transfers Matthew Lee (UCF) and Javion Cohen (Alabama). The running back group is pretty solid, but a few wide receivers need to emerge for this offense to really flourish.

The Hurricanes host Texas A&M in Week 2. Other than that, the early schedule is very easy and should allow the offense to establish some continuity. That also applies to the defense, which is now led by Lance Guidry.

Guidry led a stellar unit at Marshall for the past two seasons and he’s got a lot to work with at Miami with guys like Leonard Taylor and Akheem Mesidor returning up front. Francisco Mauigoa, a linebacker transfer from Washington State, looks like a major addition, while the safety duo of James Williams and Kamren Kinchens is one of the best in the country. Cornerback is the main question on the defense, but Guidry has a slew of transfers to fill in the gaps left behind by two NFL draft picks.

If Miami can beat Texas A&M at home, there’s a very good chance it can start 5-0 before heading to North Carolina and hosting Clemson in back-to-back weeks. I’m not high on UNC this year, and Clemson hasn’t been its once-dominant self in recent seasons.

It’s unlikely, but I can envision a scenario where Miami is 7-1 entering its final four games, three of which are on the road. That could put the Hurricanes at least in a position to get to the ACC title game — or even better. Crazier things have happened (like TCU playing in the national championship).

Big 12: Kansas State (+2000)

It’s the final Big 12 season for Texas and Oklahoma and they’re the two betting favorites to win the conference. Texas (+325 to make the CFP) is being talked about as a playoff contender; Oklahoma (+600) seems poised to bounce back; TCU is the defending national runner-up; and even Texas Tech has earned some offseason hype as a potential surprise contender.

But what about Kansas State? The defending Big 12 champions seem to be flying under the radar yet again. Sure, do-it-all running back Deuce Vaughn and edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah are off to the NFL, but the Wildcats should not be discounted.

Will Howard is back at quarterback and he’ll have electric Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward in the backfield with Phillip Brooks in the slot and Ben Sinnott at tight end. Iowa transfer Keagan Johnson is also a name to know at receiver. Oh, and all five starters along the offensive line return, including All-American guard Cooper Beebe. Defensively, the linebacker group is really good and Brendan Mott and Khalid Duke seem poised to take over as the team’s top pass-rushers.

Chris Klieman won national titles at the FCS level and has now won at least eight games in three of his four seasons at K-State. Coming off a 10-win campaign a year ago, he’s built a program that can achieve sustained success in the Big 12 — and potentially even on a national level.

Big Ten: Iowa (+3000)

The top of the Big Ten East is loaded, and Wisconsin has received plenty of offseason hype following the hire of Luke Fickell, but don’t forget about Iowa.

Wisconsin is the betting favorite to win the Big Ten West and has +1000 odds to reach the playoff, but I like Iowa to win the West in the conference’s final season with divisions.

Iowa has to play in a “white out” environment at Penn State in Week 4, but avoids both Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. Other than the PSU game, the Hawkeyes may only be an underdog in one other game — the Oct. 14 trip to Wisconsin.

Iowa is loaded on defense once again, made major upgrades on offense through the transfer portal and brings back All-American punter Tory Taylor.

We all know how much Kirk Ferentz loves punting, but Taylor should have fewer chances this year with Cade McNamara now at quarterback for the Hawkeyes. Iowa had one of the worst offenses in the country but the additions of McNamara (Michigan), receiver Kaleb Brown (Ohio State) and TE Erick All (Michigan) should give the Hawkeyes a big boost. Additionally, the offensive line should be significantly improved and tight end Luke Lachey is an underrated weapon.

As good as Iowa’s defense and special teams play has been in recent seasons, we could be surprised how much even a slightly improved offense can help this team.

Pac-12: UCLA (+3000)

Don’t forget about Chip Kelly and UCLA when you’re sizing up the Pac-12 race.

UCLA was picked sixth in the preseason Pac-12 media poll behind USC, Washington, Utah, Oregon and even Oregon State. But there’s a lot to like about the Bruins even with five-year starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson now in the NFL.

Whether it’s veteran Ethan Garbers or five-star freshman Dante Moore at quarterback, Kelly has plenty of track record to indicate that UCLA will be just fine on offense. The Bruins brought in prolific Ball State transfer Carson Steele at running back. He should pair up with T.J. Harden (who averaged 7.4 yards per carry as a freshman) to make up a dynamic backfield. Additionally, receiver J. Michael Sturdivant is one of the most underrated transfer pickups in the country.

If the transfers on the offensive line are ready to roll, the Bruins should be just as explosive on offense as last year. It’s the defense that is going to need improvement for UCLA to reach its ceiling.

The front seven looks solid, especially with the returning experience on the defensive line and Oluwafemi Oladejo coming in from Cal to shore up the linebacker group. There are some veterans in the secondary that have struggled, but if UCLA can get more pressure on the quarterback and a few young guys blossom into more prominent roles, it’s reasonable to project improvement on the back end of the UCLA defense.

And perhaps most importantly, UCLA has some schedule breaks. The Bruins avoid Oregon and Washington and will play each of the bottom-six projected teams in the conference. Road games against USC, Utah and Oregon State won’t be easy, but it shouldn’t be much of a surprise if we see the Bruins in serious contention for a Pac-12 title game berth in late November.

SEC: Kentucky (+15000)

Other than the Georgia juggernaut, the SEC East is a bit more navigable than the West.

Last year, Tennessee (+1400 to make the CFP) was UGA’s biggest challenger and South Carolina (+5000) took some big strides, but I’m pretty bullish on Kentucky this season.

The Wildcats won 10 games in 2021 but regressed to 7-6 in 2022 even with star Will Levis back at quarterback. With Levis now in the NFL, UK was able to bring in NC State transfer Devin Leary to take over the starting role. Leary missed half of last season with an injury, so it’s easy to forget that he was one of the best quarterbacks in the country in 2021. Leary threw for 3,433 yards and 35 touchdowns with only five interceptions while completing 65.7% of his attempts.

At Kentucky, he is in a position to flourish — especially with offensive coordinator Liam Coen returning after a brief stint in the NFL. Coen is a major upgrade over Rich Scangarello, and Leary may actually be a better fit for Coen’s offense than Levis was in 2021. Leary is more accurate and has better touch. He’ll also have the benefit of depth at receiver and running back. Keep an eye on Ray Davis, a running back transfer from Vanderbilt.

Despite all of that skill, the offensive line needs to show significant improvement for this unit to reach its potential. UK allowed a whopping 45 sacks last year, but most of last year’s unit is back. UK also brought in a slew of transfers, a few of which will likely slot in as starters.

Before last year, offensive line play had been a strength for Mark Stoops’ program for years. It’s likely the make-or-break position for UK this season, because the defense has the potential to be one of the better units in the SEC.

Brad White, one of the most underrated coordinators in the country, has a stellar front returning, led by 6-foot-6, 340-pound Deone Walker in the middle. The linebacker group is also solid, but UK will have to sort through a host of candidates to lock down the two starting cornerback spots. Stoops is a defensive backs coach by trade and consistently produces really good secondary play. Based on Stoops’ track record, it’s hard to be overly concerned about that group.

Kentucky has an easy non-conference schedule and opens SEC play with Vanderbilt and Florida before the trip to Georgia on Oct. 7. I’m not predicting a win in Athens, but UK gets both Tennessee and Alabama at home. UK has a bye week before it plays the Vols, while UT will be coming off of its trip to Tuscaloosa. And then Kentucky plays Alabama right after the Tide plays LSU.

Kentucky will be a home underdog in both of those games, but those situational spots could add to the formula for an upset or two. It’s a long shot to get to the CFP, but I think Kentucky could have a really big season.

Group of Five: SMU (+20000)

In 2021, Cincinnati showed it’s possible for a Group of Five program to reach the CFP. That year, UC posted road wins over Indiana and Notre Dame before cruising through the AAC without a loss.

For 2023, SMU is a sneaky candidate from the AAC to have a really good season. Maybe even a special season.

Hear me out. With Cincinnati, Houston and UCF off to the Big 12, the AAC is a much easier conference for a program like SMU to navigate. On top of that, SMU doesn’t have to play reigning conference champion Tulane or feisty newcomer UTSA during the regular season. I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU is favored in all eight conference games it plays.

Before AAC play, SMU has the chance to make two major statements in the non-conference portion of its schedule. The Mustangs go to Oklahoma on Sept. 9 and then visit TCU on Sept. 23. The Mustangs will be big underdogs, but I think they have the personnel on offense to give both of those teams fits.

SMU lost quarterback Tanner Mordecai to Wisconsin, but Preston Stone was one of the highest-ranked recruits in program history and is poised to take over the offense in Rhett Lashlee’s second season as head coach. Lashlee has loaded up on transfers throughout the offense and completely revamped the defense with new faces. Most of those transfers are coming in from Power Five schools, making the overall talent of the roster undoubtedly better than it was in 2022 when the Mustangs went 7-6 with four one-score losses.

The Mustangs are my pick to win the AAC. To get to the CFP, they’ll need to win both the Oklahoma and TCU games. It’s unlikely, but I can at least envision the scenario where it’s possible.