Dallas Cowboys' keys to victory over Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFC wild-card game
They are the lower seed and playing on the road but, due to their opponents' own inconsistencies this season, the Dallas Cowboys will be the betting favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Monday night's NFC wild-card round matchup.
The 12 wins the Cowboys accrued during the regular season won't mean much with quarterback Tom Brady, undefeated in seven games against Dallas, on the other side. That won't make things easier for a team coming off its worst offensive performance of the season against the Washington Commanders.
Here are four things that must happen for the Cowboys to advance in the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Dak Prescott, Kellen Moore find rhythm
For the Cowboys to advance past the Buccaneers, Prescott will have to be far better than the tape he put out eight days earlier.
The 37.8% completion percentage was the worst of his career. He's thrown interceptions in seven straight games and finished the regular season tied with Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills for the league lead. On Sunday, his misses weren't close and his reads felt late.
Prescott and the Cowboys have opened each of the least two seasons against the Buccaneers, both losses. The first was a 31-29 back-and-forth affair in which Prescott threw 58 times (42 completions) for 403 yards and three touchdowns. In 2022, Dallas could not even find the end zone and lost, 19-3.
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have to find a way to settle Prescott into the passing game and build early confidence. Play action will help, but that would require establishing the run, which brings us to point No. 2.
NFL playoff schedule: Matchups, game times, TV info leading up to Super Bowl 57
NFL power rankings: Top five unchanged, but Cowboys slip
NFL newsletter: Sign up now to get football news delivered to your inbox
Run game gets grooving
The Cowboys ran the ball seven times on first down against Washington and were held to 10 total yards. Neither Ezekiel Elliott (eight rushes, 10 yards) nor Tony Pollard (seven attempts, 19 yards) could find much room to run. The complete lack of production on first down, Moore said, made sustaining drives difficult.
Dallas had 10 three-and-outs with Prescott on the field (12 total) and went 4-for-18 on third down (22%). The Cowboys finished the season fifth in third-down conversion percentage (45.5%) and a main reason involves success running the ball on early downs.
The health of the offensive line will have an obvious impact on the rushing attack's performance, and the good news is that center Tyler Biadasz is expected to return for the playoffs. But the absence of tackle Terence Steele will make things more difficult against an average Buccaneers rushing defense.
Special teams flushes bad game
Mistakes by special teams in what turned out to be a meaningless Week 18 game can be glossed over. Special teams screwups in the playoffs will cost people jobs, though.
The transgressions against Washington were noticeable. Bryan Anger mishandled a snap and couldn't get the punt away, turning the ball over inside the red zone. Returner KaVontae Turpin signaled for a fair catch but forgot the most important part – catching the ball – and set Washington up with prime field position once again. Kicker Brett Maher missed an extra point. Turpin returned a punt he should have let roll into the end zone.
Against a team with Tom Brady calling signals, special teams mishaps can be a death knell.
Breaking Tom Brady curse
This is a simple one. Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys, with the latest two wins coming in a Buccaneers uniform. This will be the first time Dallas faces Brady in the postseason.
Follow Chris Bumbaca on Twitter @BOOMbaca.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cowboys-Buccaneers NFC wild-card playoff game: Keys for Dallas to win
