How the Cowboys can keep rolling against the Panthers and beyond
The Cowboys have escalated their play each contest since the terrible performance in San Francisco in Week 5. They have gone 3-1 since, a close game in Philadelphia being their only loss. The offense has finally caught up to the defense and special teams, making them a formidable team for opponents.
This week is the type of game Dallas has struggled with in the past. An early game on the East Coast against an opponent who has no playoff chances but will look to play at a higher level in this game because of all the eyes the Cowboys bring to the table. They even had a few extra days to prepare as their Week 10 game was Thursday night. Mike McCarthy, Dan Quinn, and Dak Prescott must have the team ready to match the opponent’s energy.
The last game versus the New York Giants and this one against the Carolina Panthers are about more than just winning on the scoreboard. They are a chance to build momentum, and the definition of winning is more than scoring more points than the opponent. Getting Brandin Cooks involved in the offense, getting a bounce-back game for Terence Steele, or bringing back Michael Gallup’s confidence could be more of a win than just the final score. Here is how Dallas leaves Carolina with a victory and remains hot going into the upcoming Thanksgiving gauntlet.
How they win: Get the run game, especially Pollard, going
If the Cowboys still had one question remaining this season, it would be their run game. The team might be eighth in attempts and 11th in total rush yards, but they are 18th in yards per carry. Pollard has been the real surprise, but not in a good sense. He has averaged five yards a rush or more in three of his four years in the league, but this season he is under four yards a carry. In 193 attempts last season Pollard ran for 1,007 yards and nine touchdowns, but in 135 tries this year he has only 529 yards and two scores.
Whether it is due to his injury, the play calling, the blocking scheme, or the offensive line play, Pollard doesn’t look the same. He might need to go back to a split backfield role. He had 15 handoffs compared to 12 for backup Rico Dowdle in Week 10’s win. Dowdle hadn’t done much before but had a breakout contest against the Giants, running for an average of 6.6 yards per attempt and a TD, and that could earn him a split on touches again this week. As a team they averaged 5.1 per rush on their way to 168 total yards.
A win is most important on the scoreboard every week, but a real win for the Cowboys in Week 11 would be opening up the rushing offense.
How to lose: Dak Prescott cools off
The Cowboys quarterback has started gathering MVP momentum within the media and the fanbase. He is now a top-10 candidate and his odds moved from 60-1 to 35-1 this week. Prescott is currently tops in completion percentage at 70.7% and turnover-worthy play rate, 1.7%. He is third in both QB rating and QBR, his 17 touchdown passes rank fifth, and he is seventh in pass yards at 2,415.
Prescott might not have the signature wins to elevate into the top tier of the MVP race yet, but his hot play will be the key to Dallas staying in the division race. It is important for the team to improve on the things they have struggled with, but the main thing necessary is for the QB to continue playing at the highest level. Of the eight teams remaining on their schedule, the opponent this week is the highest-ranked pass defense of the group.
The Commanders and Eagles are in the bottom five in pass defense, the Lions and Seahawks are bottom third in pass defense, and have to travel to Dallas, where the Cowboys have won 12 straight games, but three of those matchups are likely playoff teams and Prescott will need his MVP level play to beat them. The Bills and Dolphins are 12th and 13th ranked pass defenses respectfully, are both thought of as possible playoff contenders, and Dallas will have to go on the road in both those contests.
That schedule is why Prescott playing so well in Carolina is key. If he can stay hot, on the road, versus the best pass defense he will face the rest of the season, then there is a chance this team could go on a magical run towards winning the NFC East and possibly the top seed in the NFC.
How they win: Stay healthy
The Cowboys have had injury issues for many seasons in the Prescott era, dating back to losing Travis Frederick to his autoimmune disease, Guillain-Barre. They regularly lose all-world left tackle Tyron Smith. Prescott himself has had an injury bug since his season-ending ankle injury in 2020. Leighton Vander Esch has battled injury since his second season in the league and was just ruled out for the year. The team has been hit hard by their losses due to injury and one more could be the tipping point.
Second-year linebacker Damone Clark has stepped in adequately for Vander Esch, and former safety Markquese Bell has transitioned to linebacker at an unbelievable rate, but with DeMarvion Overshown also gone for the season, one more injury at the position could be devastating to the defense. The Cowboys brought in Rashaan Evans, but could use another body in that room.
All-Pro Trevon Diggs was a heartbreaking loss for the Dallas defense, but Daron Bland has stepped up into the top corner spot. He is first amongst corners in man coverage grade, passer rating allowed, and interceptions. He is second in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade, overall defensive grade, and fourth in reception percentage allowed and passer rating allowed while in man coverage. The issue is that he is no longer the slot corner, and Jourdan Lewis is a large downgrade from Bland in that spot. If one of those two or Stephon Gilmore goes down the position is thin for Dallas.
The OL is not great now, let alone if it sustains a big injury, the receiving core is rather reliant on one big name, and if either top leader on offense or defense goes down then this team could go south immediately. Dallas is very talented, but health will be key because they are also thin at multiple positions.
How to lose: Run defense slips
In the Prescott era, the largest deficiency in Dallas has been the run defense. When the Cowboys lose, it is almost exclusively in games they give up over 150 yards rushing. In the 2018 divisional round of the playoffs Dallas allowed two 100-yard rushers. In 2021 the San Francisco 49ers rushed for 168 yards and eliminated the Cowboys. This year in their two losses they allowed 222 yards to the Arizona Cardinals and 170 to the 49ers.
Overall, the defense has been vastly improved against the run. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this season. They held Christian McCaffrey to 2.7 yards per carry. Saquon Barkley ran 25 times for 117 yards, which would be a good game, but it took him two games to accomplish that. Austin Ekeler couldn’t even reach two yards an attempt on 14 tries and D’Andre Swift was held under 2.5 yards per rush. Even Jalen Hurts only averaged 3.6 yards on his ten carries.
The defense of the Cowboys feasts on offenses when they force them into passing downs. That allows their pass rush to wreck the game and cause turnovers. If Dallas is going to be beat, it is very likely that a team is able to run the ball, shorten the game, and control the flow. If Dallas wins this game 30-27 because the offense outscores the Panthers, and Carolina is able to run on Dallas, that could be seen as a loss for the team going forward. They have to continue to shut down the run game of opposing teams with the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, and Detroit Lions on the schedule ahead.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or YouTube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.
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