Of course the Bucs want Baker Mayfield back. But is the price too high?

TAMPA — Can we agree, at this time last year the NFL world was seriously underestimating Baker Mayfield?

While quarterbacks such as Taylor Heinicke, Jarrett Stidham, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Brian Hoyer and Mike White were getting more guaranteed money to be backups, Mayfield settled for a stripped-down deal in Tampa Bay at $4 million plus incentives.

And now, one year later, Mayfield is coming off a Pro Bowl season. He got the Bucs within nine points of the NFC championship game, and finished in the top 10 of the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns.

Which brings us to a new possibility:

Is the world now overestimating Baker Mayfield?

Have we gone from unwarranted pessimism to unrealistic expectations? Would it be prudent for the Bucs to pay Mayfield millions more than they paid Tom Brady when he was winning a Super Bowl and sending season ticket sales into orbit?

Sure, the price for quarterbacks has exploded and the NFL’s salary cap is higher than it was during Brady’s time here. But we’re talking about the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history versus a guy who was traded, benched, waived and ignored not that long ago.

Presumably, that’s why a deal was still elusive at the time this was being written. He understandably wants to cash in after taking a cut in pay last year, but which Mayfield do you believe in? The one written off by most NFL general managers after the 2022 season, or the ascending free agent looking for the contract of a lifetime today?

It certainly feels as if there is an all-or-nothing quality to every conversation involving Mayfield these days. He’s either a stiff or a savior, and good luck convincing anyone that nuance and middle ground might be notions worth considering on social media.

Mayfield deserves a big payday. That’s indisputable.

The problem is figuring out where “big” ends and “overpriced” begins. Based on last season, do you think Mayfield is one of the top dozen quarterbacks in the league? Because the 12 biggest QB salaries averaged about $46.5 million in 2023. And, honestly, that seems a step beyond prudent. Mayfield is coming off a very solid season, but no one is comparing him to Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson.

So, based on the entirety of his career, do you think Mayfield is better lumped in the middle tier of quarterbacks? Because those guys all made between $24.5 million and $37.5 million, which is a hefty sum but the going rate for an accomplished veteran at the position. And if you’re inclined to offer that type of money — which the Bucs presumably are — you need to decide whether you’re willing to go to the top of that scale.

Depending on which side of the paycheck you’re signing, there are comparable quarterbacks you can cite as precedents. Daniel Jones got $92 million in guaranteed money when he signed a deal with the Giants last spring. And you better believe Mayfield’s agents brought that up in negotiations. On the other hand, Seattle’s Geno Smith got $40 million guaranteed when he signed a year ago. That’s a comp the Bucs could get behind.

If you want to do it strictly by numbers, there are a dozen quarterbacks with at least 2,500 pass attempts since Mayfield was drafted in 2018. Of that dozen, Mayfield has the lowest passer rating and the highest interception rating. He has fewer fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives than anyone else on the list.

Or, if you’re more of a bottom-line person, Mayfield has more playoff wins than Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson or Jones during that same time period, and they all made more than $40 million last season.

In that sense, Mayfield is a Salvador Dali painting in shoulder pads. Ten different people could look at his career and come away with 10 different interpretations.

Here’s something that should matter:

Mayfield understands the cost of expectations. He was the No. 1 pick in Cleveland, and while he had an impressive rookie season and took the Browns to the playoffs in his third season, there was always the nagging sense that he was not quite as good as his draft status indicated.

And now he’s going to run into similar expectations with a mega-rich deal.

Derek Carr and Mayfield both went 9-8 as starters in the NFC South last season. Carr threw 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Mayfield threw 28 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Both averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Carr’s 97.7 passer rating was slightly higher than Mayfield’s 94.6

And yet Carr’s season was viewed as a disappointment because he had just signed a four-year, $150 million deal while Mayfield was universally praised because he outplayed his contract and expectations.

I’m not suggesting Mayfield is better off with a smaller contract in 2024, but he’s already earned a pocketful of goodwill in Tampa Bay. There’s value in that circumstance that he won’t find anywhere else.

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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