And In That Corner: In their worst season in more than a decade, the Clemson Tigers are still plenty talented

Clemson is struggling this season, as much as it has in more than a decade. Yet Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney insists they more resemble a 7-1 or 8-0 team, rather than the 4-4 reality of their record.

As No. 15 Notre Dame (7-2) heads to Death Valley on Saturday at 12 ET on ABC, let’s get an honest assessment of Clemson from longtime beat writer Matt Connolly of On3 Sports.

DF: Before I delve into Clemson’s lost season, I am curious for your thoughts on a big-picture item. It’s been knocking around my brain for a bit, and you are in-touch with both the Tigers program and the vibes around it. Do you see this as a developing rivalry on that end? Does Dabo Swinney? Do Clemson fans?

Notre Dame’s two biggest wins of the last four years both came at home against the Tigers, moments repaid and then some in the 2018 Playoff semifinal and the 2020 ACC title game. Add in the memorable 2015 classic in the rain, and that’s five notable meetings in eight years. Two were dramatic, last-minute wonders. Three were blowouts. Both Irish wins were upsets.

From the Notre Dame end, it seems fair to say Clemson has become the measuring stick, one the Irish are capable of meeting when everything goes right. How is this series viewed from the Tigers side?

MC: I do think this is becoming a bit of a rivalry for Clemson, and I think Clemson sees it as a big deal to get a win over Notre Dame. Dabo Swinney is a historian of the game and is well aware of the history of Notre Dame football (which longtime former Clemson SID Tim Bourret surely helped him with). Beating Notre Dame is a big deal to Swinney and the Clemson fanbase.

It's certainly not the case this year, but for a long time, Clemson dominated the majority of its schedule. Playing Notre Dame was a game the Tigers got up for, because the talent was at least somewhat similar. In that sense, I believe it is a bit of a rivalry. It's helped that there have been some classic games between the two teams over the years, which you mentioned.

This isn't as intense as South Carolina-Clemson or even Florida State-Clemson, but I think it's fair to say this series is developing into a rivalry.

Now, not all of that applies to this season, not with Clemson 4-4, but a win this weekend would be a definitive moment for each team. Swinney could point to a top-15 win, while Notre Dame could take pride in beating the Tigers twice in a row. So let’s actually ponder this weekend and the few weeks leading into it. Clemson is on a two-game losing streak, both on the road, both by one possession. It is not hard to ascribe the fault to the Tigers’ offense, -0.18 expected points added per play at Miami and -0.12 last week at North Carolina State. This has been a theme for, what, three years now? These offensive struggles clearly went beyond DJ Uiagalelei and Brandon Streeter, Cade Klubnik and Garrett Riley now the ones carrying the onus. What common threads have you seen from 2021 and 2022 to 2023?

The biggest issue over the last three years for the Clemson offense has been turnovers, but there has also been a lot of poor play in general. The offensive line has probably been the weak link of the offense, while the talent at receiver hasn't developed into anything special. Quarterback play has also been inconsistent. ... By the way, did I mention turnovers?

Clemson has turned the ball over way too many times over the past few years, and a lot of the turnovers have been disastrous, whether it be a pick-six, scoop-and-score or a fumble near the goal line.

Clemson currently ranks last in the ACC in fumbles lost, next to last in turnovers lost and next to last in turnover margin.

The Tigers have also surrendered 64 points off turnovers through eight games this year. That number was 38 points in 14 games last year.

That offense has no clear strength. It is more effective passing the ball than running it, but neither is good enough to consider Clemson a well-rounded team. The Tigers drop back far more often than the average team, something that could be a problem against Notre Dame and one of the best pass defenses in the country. What moments have you seen from Klubnik and Riley that could worry Irish fans this weekend?

To be honest, the offense has been way too inconsistent all season, and that includes in the passing game. Cade Klubnik has constantly been under pressure and has put the ball in jeopardy too many times. The running game has really struggled, which has allowed defenses to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. And as I mentioned earlier, receivers simply haven't been very good. Cade has been OK when he has time, which hasn't been often, and he is an above-average passer on the run. But overall, Notre Dame shouldn't be too afraid of the Clemson passing game.

If there is one reason for optimism, it's the fact that Cade did a nice job of finding holes in the Florida State defense and moving the ball. That was probably Clemson's best offensive game of the season, all things considered. But Notre Dame has a better defense than the Seminoles.

How much more limited will this offense be if running back Will Shipley is held out, currently in concussion protocols?

If Shipley is out, it's not a huge dropoff to Phil Mafah, but Mafah has to stay healthy. Behind him is a lot of inexperience. Clemson felt good about its two-headed monster at running back heading into the season with Will Shipley and Phil Mafah. But it's been an overall disappointing year for the duo. Mafah is averaging 6 yards per carry and has done a nice job when he's had running room. He just hasn't had a ton. When Mafah gets going, he's a load to bring down, but too many times this year he's been tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. That goes for all of Clemson's running backs.

Defensively, little has changed from Clemson. It is still good, really good. Maybe it is not at its peak like in 2018 with that defensive line or in 2020 with those linebackers, but Sam Hartman will have to rise to the occasion. How should Notre Dame attempt to challenge the Tigers? My instinct is with a heavy helping of Audric Estimé.

If I'm Notre Dame on offense, I'm going into the game with a conservative game plan. The strategy a lot of teams have used this year is to be patient, not make mistakes, wear Clemson down and wait on the Tigers' offense to make a mistake. That has worked out well for nearly every Power 5 team Clemson has faced this season. Relying heavily on Audric Estimé, and having Sam Hartman make just enough plays in the passing game, makes a lot of sense. Clemson has allowed 52 points in the fourth quarter this season — its most in any quarter.

I suppose my version of asking what you expect this weekend somewhat ties back to my original point. Clemson is on a two-game losing streak and has suffered four losses for the first time since 2010. That’s a testament to a decade of success, but it also may convey some uncertainty for this weekend. How will that locker room respond to sustained struggles, a loss of any ACC title hopes, etc.? I don’t know that you have an answer to that, don’t know that you can, but it is something to wonder about, right?

The locker room has stayed together, up until this point. I think it says a lot about Clemson's culture that the Tigers were down 24-7 in the fourth quarter last week, on the road, had done nothing on offense up until that point and were able to battle back to 24-17 and have the ball with a chance to tie late. There's obviously some frustration around the program, though, with the fan base, with the coaching staff, with the players, etc. No one around the program expected this. I do think Clemson will be ready to go mentally for this game, especially playing at home. Dabo Swinney is as good of a motivator as anyone in the country.

But yes, what do you expect this weekend? Notre Dame is favored by 3, the first time Clemson has been a home underdog since … Sept. 23 against Florida State, the Tigers then one-point underdogs. Before that, it had not been since Lamar Jackson and Louisville visited in 2016, also a moment with Clemson a one-point underdog. The last time the Tigers were home underdogs of more than a point was against Florida State in October of 2013, five-point underdogs that were then routed 51-14.

I have a hard time seeing Clemson winning this game. I do think the Tigers will play inspired football and will hang around for a while, but I trust a veteran in Sam Hartman going up against the Clemson defense a lot more than I trust Cade Klubnik going against a Notre Dame defense. If the Irish show up ready to play and look at Clemson as a really good program with a lot of talent — and not a 4-4 ACC team — I think they win. I'll take Notre Dame 27, Clemson 14.

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