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COLUMN: The recipe for Cowboy baseball to make an overdue postseason run

ryan breeden, stillwater newspress, okla.
·6 min read

May 22—With Oklahoma State securing the No. 2 seed in this weekend's Big 12 Tournament, postseason college baseball has officially arrived. With that in mind, the nature of the sport calls for unpredictability and chaos in the latter stages of a season, no matter the level of competition (just ask last year's 104-win Atlanta Braves about that).

Many factors go into a team's success when the lights are brightest, some of it being unmeasurable and unidentifiable. There are plenty of metrics and traits that can be linked to postseason success, though — traits that this year's OSU team possess.

It has been nearly eight years since Oklahoma State's last College World Series team. That team had the ability to win the title, but came up one win shy of the championship series. It's been five years since the heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech in the Lubbock super regional winner-take-all game, which was the last time OSU appeared in a Super Regional. That team had an argument for a top eight national seed but was placed at nine and subsequently lost on the road.

Aside from those two seasons, the 21st century has seen a decline in postseason production for Cowboy baseball teams. From 1980-1999, Oklahoma State made the College World Series 11 times in 19 years. Though the winning ways in the regular season have continued, they haven't translated in the same way to success in the NCAA Tournament.

With our introduction out of the way, let's talk about the three key reasons/factors that will play a part in the 2024 Oklahoma State baseball team's postseason fate.

1. Nothing is more important than good pitching, and OSU just might be in luckIn 2022, Oklahoma State rallied from a 12-0 deficit to beat Missouri State, 29-15, and just a few hours later outlasted Arkansas, 14-10, in extra innings. Arguably OSU's best offensive team in years saw its season come to an end in its own regional because the pitching staff ran out of gas.

The same thing happened in 2023 when the Cowboys went 0-2, with losses to Oral Roberts and Dallas Baptist. In the last two regionals combined, the OSU pitching staff has allowed 81 runs in seven games, which averages out to 11.5 runs/game. It's hard for even the best offense to keep up with that.

You probably also remember the 2016 rotation with Thomas Hatch, Trey Cobb and Jensen Elliott. Those guys were arguably the best tandem in the country, and they led the Cowboys to Omaha.

Here's the good news for this year's pitching staff: it's debatably OSU's best one since 2019. Pitching coach Rob Walton has six pitchers with a sub-four ERA, the most since that 2019 season. However, this year's sub-four pitchers account for 63% of team innings while 2019's sub-four pitchers account for just 46% of team innings.

Jensen Elliott was the ace of the 2019 team, and this year it's Brian Holiday. Holiday's numbers blow Elliott's numbers out of the water, with 49 more strikeouts, 19 fewer walks and a 3.32 ERA as opposed to a 3.56.

Southpaw Sam Garcia is an elite second starter with ace-like numbers. With Holiday's 111 strikeouts and Garcia's 102, Oklahoma State is the only team in the country with two pitchers at 100+ punchouts. The Cowboys also sport the 16th best team ERA nationally with a 4.23, and are 14th in walks allowed with 173.

Having two good starting arms, a deep bullpen and a knack for limiting free bases will get you far in the postseason — so long as that trend continues.

2. Getting hot on offense at the right timeElite pitching is the most important variable to a winning equation, but not far behind is an offense that can keep pace with the best. Most of the top teams in the country are capable of going through spurts of offensive excellence and mediocrity, and it's typically not about if it happens, it's about when it happens. Peaking at the right time is key, and if the bats go cold at the wrong time, your season is likely over.

Let's draw on some more comparison to the 2019 super regional team for just a second. When you look at the genetic makeup of that lineup to this year's, there's lots of similarities:

All three outfielders are proven leaders at the top of the statsheet in production (2019: McCusker, Boone, Cabbiness) (2024: Schubart, Ehrhard, Benge).

A freshman second baseman is making his presence felt (2019: Hueston Morrill) (2024: Avery Ortiz).

A transfer shortstop holds together the infield (2019: Andrew Navigato) (2024: Lane Forsythe)

Nolan Schubart and Carson Benge are first and second among qualified batters on the team in batting average, RBI, home runs and OPS. Zach Ehrhard and Aidan Meola have been very productive in the lineup and a variety of other players have contributed in varying ways throughout the year.

The key is having top bats and supporting cast catch a spark collectively at the right time. In the last five regular season games, OSU scored 12 runs per game and has scored 10+ runs in seven of its last 13 games. That trend needs to continue if Oklahoma State wants to make a deep tournament run.

3. The luck of the drawMost coaches and players would give the typical "we'll play anyone, anywhere" response if asked about seeding and matchups for the NCAA Tournament. Those things matter, and they all know it as well.

Exhibit A for that argument comes from OSU's last three regional experiences. Each of the last three teams to emerge from Oklahoma State's regional (Arizona, Arkansas, ORU) have gone on to reach the College World Series.

The most recent projections have the Cowboys on the verge of being a regional host or a two-seed. One projection from D1 Baseball has OSU as the No. 16 national seed, but hosting 40-13 Dallas Baptist, 38-20 LSU and 41-13 Lamar. I can't imagine a draw being any more challenging than that projection if it were to come true.

Conference tournaments nationwide will shake things up ahead of the selection show on May 27. That is when Oklahoma State will have step one of its path to Omaha unveiled. Regional play will start May 31 and go through the weekend.

Ryan Breeden is a sports reporter for The Stillwater News Press. He can be contacted at rbreeden@stwnewspress.com.