Colorado State basketball mailbag: Breaking down what's worth worry, what's overreaction

One of the main parts of my job is to provide a clear-eyed view.

Fans get caught in the emotion of big moments and, like a shot of adrenaline, it can impact the rational thoughts and analysis. That’s totally fine! It’s what being a fan is about.

But I view my role at times as helping sift reality from overreaction.

It’s most important in the most dramatic moments, good or bad, for Colorado State sports.

That brings us to Saturday and the mind-bending final-minute collapse in a loss at Wyoming.

The panic, rage reactions were predictable. Here is a mega-mailbag sifting through the wreckage to try and highlight the reality of the situation: Where the worries are, where some calm is needed and, hopefully, a reasonable and honest look at the big picture.

We’ll start with questions specific to the Wyoming game and then roll on into to bigger picture ones. Settle in, this is a deep bag.

Given the opponent, stakes, and the way it played out, can you think of a worse loss in your time in Fort Collins? (Any sport) (@TuesWithMitch)

I’ve been brainstorming this, and a few come to mind: Saturday’s men’s hoops loss at Wyoming, football’s Rocky Mountain Showdown loss in Boulder this season and the 2017 Boise State football game.

The Showdown loss was wild and really hurt CSU fans given all the drama around the game, but not a completely abnormal swing in a college football game.

The 2017 Boise State game not only tanked that season but started the spiral of the Mike Bobo era.

But, for a single game, the final minute at Wyoming is as crazy as it gets.

How much of the blame do you think Medved takes on in this game? (@ThatBroncosFan_)

On the one hand, Niko Medved didn’t miss the free throws, didn’t make the bad ref calls and didn’t fail to secure a rebound. Now, especially on the rebounds and final play tying bucket for Wyoming, CSU didn’t succeed, so you can argue the lineup/matchup choices weren’t right.

All of these plays in the final minute end the game if they go the other way:

• Nique Clifford misses front-end of one-and-one.

• Jalen Lake goes 1-2 at FT line.

• Wyoming player is out of bounds on an in-bounds steal, but ref gives timeout.

• Offensive rebound allowed on Sam Griffin’s third free throw.

• Replay doesn’t flip next rebound to Wyoming possession (it took more than 3 minutes to review. Not sure how that could be conclusive).

• In-bounds play to Mason Walters.

Bottom line is the whole team wears it.

Why all the 3s (Saturday), even though Cartier and Scott were having success inside? Why wasn’t play reviewed on “turnover” when Wyoming player appeared to be out of bounds. (@mayerander)

CSU averages about 23 3-point attempts per game and shot 29 against Wyoming. Considering the extra five minutes of OT, it wasn’t really outside the normal scope of attempts. What we’re seeing right now is teams clog the paint to try and keep the Rams from driving and cutting, which can lead to more 3’s. I agree, though, I would like to see more paint touches for Cartier.

As for the steal/out-of-bounds mentioned above, it was a horrible call that truly sparked the comeback attempt. A potential game-changing and season-altering call. Everyone was confused, but it appears that it was deemed unreviewable since refs gave Wyoming the timeout. Apparently, they felt timeout was called before player was out, which upon review seems impossible.

Can you explain why (Mountain West) refs are (trash)? (@ColtonKirby880)

It’s common knowledge in college basketball circles that a Saturday afternoon non-marquee game (i.e. not national TV) will be a bad crew. And so it was. There are so many games across the country on a Saturday that the ref depth is tested and top crews get the more prominent games.

KenPom has ref rankings that go 200 deep and only one of the three from Saturday even makes the list — and he came in at No. 192. They were overmatched.

It’s happening a lot in the Mountain West. An awful call gave Utah State a miracle win at UNLV (which could swing the MW title race), and there will be more this season. Be especially wary of an afternoon weekend game.

What does the locker room look like after a bad choke? Didn’t see Luke Murphy on the bench yesterday and Jack Payne looked like he wasn’t suited up. Medved was said to be sick, is there a team sickness going around? (Not justifying the loss) (@Csu_Sports)

Players were ticked off, no doubt. And in some shock. But players are also trained to move on from wild losses or wins very quickly. We’ll truly find out about the response Tuesday vs. San Diego State.

I'll also say this: Crazy results and bad runs in basketball happen. UConn had a run of six losses in eight games (four by double digits) last February and ended as national champs. CSU overcame a 26-point deficit at San Diego State a couple years ago, and it appears the Aztecs have rebounded. Remember CSU football's Hail Mary comeback vs. Boise State this fall? It didn't turn into a huge catapult. Either way, these insane games don't always have huge longterm impact.

And yes, when I interviewed Medved in Reno after the Nevada game, he could hardly speak. He’s been battling illness. I think others have, too, at times over the past couple weeks.

What's wrong with this team? (@TheMace)

I think a few things are the key issues right now. One is winning on the road is just insanely tough. Some get mad at me for saying it, but it’s true. Look around college basketball every night.

But I think there are some guys who have slumped and had a confidence dip, which can impact both ends of the floor. And when most games are decided by a possession or two, that can be a swing. CSU is also still tinkering to find the best rotations with 11 players available (some of that tinkering is due to those slumps).

CSU isn’t dominant inside, but it’s not the catastrophe some like to make it out to be. Keeping Patrick Cartier out of foul trouble is very important.

The Rams also need to solve the non-Isaiah Stevens minutes. Kyan Evans is getting some of them right now but is prone to a costly turnover, as will happen with a freshman. He’s learning, but it’s tough to do so now. Tavi Jackson didn’t get a minute at Wyoming, which suggests coaches are wary to fully trust him, either. At one point with Stevens out, CSU went with Jalen Lake at point guard, which he did in a preseason scrimmage.

Stevens plays almost every minute, but can’t be allowing 4-0 or 6-0 runs every time he leaves.

Finding the right combo of rotations and flow within those to get the team going again is vital. This is where coaches make important decisions.

Living in the transfer era, and constantly changing rosters, does this group have enough forged bonds to flip the script while at the bottom? What a diff story if one FT goes in reg: Scott 1-2/1:57 left, Nique misses front end of 1 & 1/0:27 left, Lake misses 2nd FT with 0:09 left (@m10hulz)

Medved postgame at Wyoming:

“We’ve got a really together group, as together of a group as I’ve been around in all my years of coaching. We’ve got a veteran group and coaches and players, (No. 1) we have to respond and No. 2 I think we will.”

I’ve been at many practices this season. Most recent was last week, and 30 minutes after the end of the session the whole roster was still out there either doing individual drills or playing shooting games in small groups. That and everything I’ve seen and heard suggests a very connected group.

I don’t know if they’ll rebound and go dominate the rest of the way, but I don’t think this group will break off and have internal strife.

As for free throws, you’re right. Those misses in the final minute especially were big. CSU is the best free throw team in the Mountain West, but those were vital misses.

The Wyoming loss makes a run for the MWC title more difficult. What is it going to take to close out the conference schedule on a more positive note? (@MikeCSURam82)

What are your must win road games for the rest of the season for the Rams? (@macert30)

The most concerning thing about these road losses is that this is a veteran team and veteran teams shouldn’t get flustered like they have late in games. A veteran team doesn’t foul a three point shooter (twice!). Why has that veteran mentality disappeared lately? (@Flickerbock)

Yeah, I said before Wyoming that it wasn’t a “must win” overall for the season because the NCAA Tournament position is solid, which it still is (more on that later), but it was key if Rams were to make a run at the MW regular season title.

That is unlikely now. The unbalanced schedule already didn’t favor CSU (and others). There are two teams you only play once. For CSU, it’s Fresno State and San Jose State, which would be potential wins. For Utah State, it’s at Nevada and home vs. UNLV not on the schedule. Those are two tricky games avoided.

If there’s a path to the title, it’s go 9-0 at home and win at Fresno State, UNLV and Air Force, minimum. A win at The Pit could swing it because CSU already beat New Mexico at Moby. That’s an unlikely path.

So, the more realistic way? Dominate at home. Win at least at Fresno State and Air Force. I think 11 MW wins would be a decent finish.

As for the veteran team on the road, it’s a good point. I’ve been thinking about it, too. I will say the fouls on 3-point shooters at Wyoming were questionable, but the point stands. I think it’s a combination of even some of the veterans (say, Joel Scott) are in their first run in this league and these environments and the overall slump. It’s hard to win on the road no matter what, and CSU is playing poorly in a gauntlet stretch.

Let's pretend that you're Joe Parker. Niko has one more extension option on his agreement. After what you have seen the last month would you exercise that extension? (@aarongharris)

Absolutely. Without hesitation. Rolling another year into the extension protects for if someone tries to hire him away (which is still possible). You don’t have the risk of needing to fire him like you did with the ill-chosen Bobo extension.

The Bobo extension came earlier (Year 3) and Parker did it based on the culture he saw. A year later, CSU was putting out videos about how the football program needed to fix the culture.

With Medved, that culture is actually established. It’s been a tight-knit, well-liked group that's respected in the community. Now that he’s rid of the mess of the Eustachy era, I think last year was a look at the floor of the program.

Everything went wrong and the Rams were a bit under .500. Not great, but not a disaster. Right now, the expectation is and should be the NCAA Tournament. Medved is one of the winningest coaches in program history. You fight to keep those around.

How does the team get off to better first half starts? (@aarongharris)

Why the slow starts? CSU gets into big holes. They were shooting below 20% until late in 1st half. (@mayerander)

There recent losses were characterized by slow starts (poor % shooting) and a hole to climb out of. Thoughts? (@MikeCSURam82)

Why do they start so slow. Stevens seems like he doesn’t want to be a factor. Is he trying to hard to get teammates going? (@rdc2212)

Saying Stevens doesn’t want to be a factor is like saying the sun doesn’t want to rise. It’s just not true.

I do think he tends to try and facilitate early in games to get his teammates going, and I feel right now his scoring aggression is needed. That said, he took six first-half shots against Wyoming, just didn’t hit (was 1-6 at the time).

Why the slow starts? That is the huge question right now and I’m not sure an exact answer. It may be the biggest task for Medved and staff to figure out because as a team is on some shaky confidence, a poor start can be damaging.

It should be (and I expect will be) easier to start well at home when a big crowd helps get things going.

Not a satisfactory answer, but I’m not sure there’s one exact thing holding them back early. Needs to improve, though.

In your opinion, are the problems we are seeing a case of temporary bad play, or are we dealing with a fundamental issue with how the roster was constructed? Is our roster appropriately built to compete in the MWC? I have my doubts. (@Parmelee_394)

OK, I’m going to rant here. This is a totally legit question and I’ll get to my answer, but it’s an appropriate time for my “size” rant.

It’s become a catch-all complaint whenever CSU struggles for my mentions to be filled with “TOO SMALL” comments. Is CSU the biggest or most dominant interior team? No. Are the Rams tiny and being bullied by bigs every game? No. After Nevada guard Jarod Lucas lit CSU up, I had people whining about CSU’s size inside. Come on, folks.

CSU’s best rebounder since Nico Carvacho was 6-foot-5 David Roddy. The best on the current team is 6-foot-6 Clifford. James Moors and Dischon Thomas were just shy of 7-feet but poor rebounders.

It’s about the physicality, ability to carve space and read the ball off the rim that makes a rebounder as much as just being tall. Can CSU improve there? Absolutely! Should CSU find a 7-foot-2 lug who can’t move just to be taller? No!

OK, now to the question! This same group had a sensational nonconference, so no, I don’t think it’s just a bad roster. CSU’s two-point defense (sixth) and rebounding margin (seventh) are middle of the pack in the MW. Not great, not horrible.

When CSU is clicking (think the Creighton game), the superior athleticism and guard play creates holes in other teams. But CSU isn’t playing great right now.

Is CSU vulnerable against great bigs (such as Great Osobor at Utah State)? Yes.

I don’t think it’s a perfect roster (if you gave me Rashaan Mbemba a year from now with development time alongside Scott and Cartier, I would feel a lot better), but I don’t think it’s wildly flawed either. Honestly, it's probably a roster that fits with where CSU is: A potential NCAA Tournament team but not quite top-of-the-MW good.

CSU clearly has been working to improve the size/athleticism. This team is much longer than last year. Outside of point guards, everyone who plays is in the 6-4 to 6-8 range. CSU has signed four high schoolers for next year, a 6-foot-3 guard but then three wings/bigs all 6-foot-8 or 6-foot-9.

I would expect a big in the portal, but (more discussion on it below), a top-tier big with high-major ability is not easy to land. CSU will likely continue to mine for diamonds in the rough.

Do you anticipate any lineup tweaks? i.e. less Scott and Cartier together, more 4 guard/wing formations? Scott, Nique, Javonte, Strong/Lake,Zay? (@TheRealDDJohnsn)

I think we'll see some continued tweaking, especially in the non-Stevens minutes. I think Scott and Cartier together can be fine, depending on matchup. I think Javonte Johnson will get some minutes but still not a ton. He and Palmer are fighting for bench minutes.

Is this the beginning of the end for a semi golden era for CSU, and should they rebuild? (@Sealoseal)

Well, this team is still on an NCAA Tournament track, so I probably wouldn’t shut the program down just yet. It is the end of an era of sorts as Stevens leaves. And there are five seniors out of eligibility, so whether a two-win team or 32-win team, a roster regeneration was happening.

But that’s just college sports these days. A large group of new players will come in every season.

Is this staff able to get P5 transfers like other MW teams? Is it staff? NIL? School? (@DaveH1923)

Football and basketball are totally different beasts, but this is one place where those teams are in similar spots. CSU is unlikely to land many P5/high-major transfers in each and it’s almost exclusively due to NIL. Those players get significant money to go provide depth at other big schools.

Heck, that’s how mid-majors lose players, too. John Tonje went to Missouri with six-figure NIL money attached and didn’t play much before a season-ending injury.

Now, CSU, obviously, landed Clifford from Colorado and that’s been a massive win. It’s a testament to the relationship built with the staff. CSU will look at those players, but the Division II path is more likely.

New Mexico, for instance, has a massive NIL bag to attempt to land those “bigger” transfers. Medved and the Green and Gold Guard are making progress in NIL, but there’s always more to go.

Like it or not, if fans want that skilled, physical big man they’re going to have to increase CSU’s purse with donations. It's the reality of current college sports.

When the dust settles where does CSU land in the post season? Are we a bubble team? (@aarongharris)

Do you still think this is a tournament team? (@RamFam992124)

CSU is not a bubble team right now. The Rams are firmly in the NCAA Tournament field at the moment. The Wyoming loss dropped the Rams down a seed line to 7/8 range.

At the end of the 2021-22 season, CSU had five Quad 1 wins, one bad (Quad 3) loss and a NET ranking of 27 and the Rams landed a No. 6 seed.

CSU, with 11 regular season games to go, has three Quad 1 wins, one bad (Quad 3) loss and a NET of 33.

Obviously, each year brings some differences in everyone’s resumes, but CSU is just fine right now. The Rams will have a bunch of Quad 1 and Quad 2 games ahead. Yes, CSU needs to rack up some wins, but the resume is quite nice, still. The margin for error has thinned, but there is still cushion.

Before the Wyoming game, I said I was still well over 90% confidence on CSU making the NCAA Tournament. It’s less now, but I still think the Rams Dance.

What is likelihood Niko leaves CSU after this year despite recent struggles (to Minnesota, WVU, elsewhere)? (@RandallNett)

Looking at our schedule we have a lot of good teams to play along with road games. How the rams have been playing I could see them only winning 3-4 more games. We don’t make the tournament with that. Would Niko be on the hot seat? (@RamFam992124)

Disclaimer I don’t have any evidence of this but could there be an element that Niko Medved got ahead of himself and thought once the rams got ranked 13 he was locked in for a P5 promotion and kind of checked out and started not to care? (@RamFam992124)

These questions show the variances in how fans react! I still think Medved will be in the conversation for some hires, depending on what jobs open. I think CSU wins way more than three more games (I still think CSU can finish with 10 or 11 MW regular season victories). And no, Medved would not be on the hot seat missing the NCAA Tournament. Under some fan pressure? Yes. In danger of losing his job? Not close.

And no, there is no chance Medved just assumed a bigger job was coming and hit the cruise control button. I’m around the program a lot and there’s zero evidence of this. Medved hates losing and has been as ticked as ever after defeats.

Coaches more than anyone know you’re only as good as your last result and to continue a career — here or otherwise — winning is king.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on Twitter and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Colorado State basketball mailbag: NCAA Tournament hopes and more