College football Week 1: Ohio State, Georgia favored, but bettors unsure about all those points
In the return of USA TODAY Sports' college football hot tix and pix, the most pressing question from bettors is how they should quench their appetite to join the excitement of the first full week of games.
Right away, the season grabs us this Labor Day weekend with two playoff-worthy matchups: No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State and No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia, the defending national champion.
Each game has an astounding two-touchdowns-plus point spread, with bookmakers showing little confidence in the ability of first-year Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman to direct an upset.
Similarly, the books aren’t moved by the sentimental return of recent Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning as he guides his Ducks in Atlanta.
MORE: Everything you need to know for the biggest games in Week 1 of the college football season
Still, bettors are deeply involved in the game, according to our survey of the nation’s top bookmakers, with all point spreads provided by Tipico Sportsbook and all rankings according to the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches poll.
Let's get into the hot picks.
No. 2 Ohio State (-17.5, -750 moneyline) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
The weekend’s glamour game (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC) is being handled with caution at Wynn Sportsbook.
It’s a top-five play, but only on the moneyline. Bettors express shyness about giving the Fighting Irish all those points given the team’s obvious enthusiasm about playing for Freeman.
At Tipico, analyst Brian Gilmartin reports heavy action on the over 58.5.
“Last year, we saw Ohio State fall victim to Purdue’s air-raid. The defense of Ohio State was its weakness last year, and it cost them a chance at the Big Ten title,” Gilmartin said. “Notre Dame should be able to take advantage of a defense that has struggled for the better part of the last two years, while you can always trust Ohio State’s offense to put up points with their (own) over set at 37.5.”
Buckeyes redshirt sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud flexed his brand-ambassador deal with Express by gifting his teammates $500 gift cards before the game.
“I just wanted to do something for the team,” Stroud said. "Make sure ya'll really get some suits, man. Look fly, man. Make sure we all look like a team.”
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Following his offense’s dynamic defeat of Utah in the Rose Bowl last season, Stroud may be able to ride leadership like that to affirm his standing as Tipico’s +210 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
No. 3 Georgia (-16.5, -800 moneyline) vs. No. 12 Oregon
Perhaps the most popular parlay of the weekend is Ohio State to Georgia with both on the moneyline because bettors are investing heavily on the Bulldogs without committing to throwing away all those points.
While Lanning went to Oregon and five Georgia defenders were drafted in the first round by NFL teams, coach Kirby Smart is well-positioned in his massive new contract to maintain his team’s elite position.
The Ducks, after knocking off Ohio State last September, will test the defensive replacements while Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett returns with a gifted tight ends corps.
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Gilmartin says bettors have flocked to the under 53.5.
“While the defending champions lost all but three starters on defense, Georgia is in no way rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball,” he said. “Kirby Smart reloads his line with Jalen Carter (nose tackle) and his secondary with Kelee Ringo and Chris Smith, both of whom are All-American candidates.
“Oregon trots out Auburn (quarterback) transfer Bo Nix, who is, unfortunately, very familiar with Georgia, where he is 0-3 with a total of five yards per attempt over those games. Lanning should have a great game plan in store for his former team.”
No. 15 USC (-32.5) vs. Rice
The debuts of new coach Lincoln Riley and Heisman-candidate quarterback Caleb Williams have stirred lofty projections among Angelenos who’ve come to expect championship seasons.
While bookmakers and college football analysts aren’t as confident about the Trojans’ immediate success — their over/under for victories at Tipico is 9.5 and their odds to reach the Playoff is +425 — this game shouldn’t dampen any of the hometown hype.
No. 1 Alabama (-41-5) vs. Utah State
Casual bettors and sharps swarmed to the top-ranked Crimson Tide from the time oddsmakers first established the line at -31.
“The tough part about making these big spreads against Alabama is that it’s determined by how they play in the first half,” said Caesars Sportsbook’s lead football trader Joey Feazel. “Most likely, they’ll sit their starters in the second half if it becomes a blowout.”
A recent 3.5-point shift is rooted in the fact Utah State struggled to defeat UConn last week.
“It says a lot that if you’re going to struggle against UConn, what are you going to do with a team like Alabama?”
No. 6 Michigan (-30) vs. Colorado State
The Wolverines returned to prominence last season by winning the Big Ten and advancing to the College Football Playoff, and the home opener should feel like a coronation.
That’s the opinion of Tipico and WynnBet wagerers, anyway.
“The public heavily favors the Wolverines coming off a stellar run,” Gilmartin said. “With the addition of coach Jay Norvell, Colorado State may take some time to find a rhythm. While some might look at the quarterback scenario in Michigan as a reason to go against the Wolverines, the talent gap and new coaching change is enough reason to bet the favorite."
However, Norvell raided his former Nevada roster of at least six key starters, and four touchdowns are too much to give up against a program determined to announce its own presence.
Sharp players aren’t as moved by the games everyone is watching, and this week’s survey of bookmakers conveys exactly that in our "hot tix."
Old Dominion (+5.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Drawing a home game against a Power Five foe who slumped to 6-7 last season is seen as a prime spot by sharps.
While Old Dominion is 1-12 overall versus Power Five teams, the victory was against the Hokies in 2018.
Duke (-7.5) vs. Temple
In a meeting of first-year coaches, bettors are siding with the stability of former Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko over the revolving door at Temple that this season brings us Stan Drayton.
Texas State (-1.5) at Nevada
This is the most turbulent line of Week 1.
The week began with Nevada standing as a 10.5-point favorite before it posted an unconvincing 23-12 triumph over New Mexico State in Week 0, but then the number tanked — as did the total — which is in the neighborhood of 51 after opening at 56.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
“It’s trending like Nevada is going to be the least popular team to bet on this season,” Caesars' Feazel said. “The market just absolutely hates them. Texas State does have 14 returning starters, but one interesting thing I saw is that they’re 1-13 against the Mountain West. I think the line has moved a little too far and any sort of value on Texas State is gone.”
No. 8 Utah (-2.5) at Florida
With Tulsa -6.5 at Wyoming also a leading sharp play at Las Vegas Superbook, the wise guys aren’t shying from backing the Pac-12 champion Utes against a new Florida coach.
“The Utes enter this season with high hopes (and) the Gators also enter this year beginning the Billy Napier era. Coach Napier has his work cut out for him taking over a team that went 6-7 last year," Gilmartin said.
“The defending Pac-12 champions will have a tough time going into ‘The Swamp,’ as it’s one of the most challenging environments to play. However, (with the Gators) entering year one of a ‘rebuild,’ the Utes should be able to take care of business.”
Western Kentucky (-16.5) at Hawaii
This line has also spiraled dramatically upward from its -8 origin at Caesars Sportsbook, and the total has risen from 62.5 to 67.5.
The Rainbow Warriors’ 63-10 blowout loss to Vanderbilt last week has influenced the attention.
“Hawaii looked terrible against Vanderbilt, allowed like 400 yards on the ground. They looked inexperienced and made a lot of mental mistakes,” Feazel said. “Western Kentucky is a high-scoring team and they’re going to pass more than Vanderbilt did.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football Week 1 betting: Ohio State, Georgia draw interest
