Who will get into the College Football Playoffs? Here are Ken Schreiber's first picks
This is the final year in which the top four teams qualify for the College Football Playoff, as it expands to 12 next year.
There should be no complaints or controversies in 2024 because if you are not in the top 12, you don't belong. But for now, it starts on Tuesday night with the first CFP rankings, and how appropriate that it's Halloween. The other element to remember is the politics and bias, the intangibles, which are always a conscious or subconscious factor in the Committee members' minds. Here, there is no attempt to persuade or influence our readers, just an outright honest assessment of who belongs.
For now, with four weeks left in the regular season, we'll put that aside and just predict the Committee's rankings. Also, please remember it is the final ranking that has the most significance. While we can usually interpret what the Committee is thinking each week, strange things have happened in their final rankings over the years.
First four in
No. 1 Ohio State (8-0). The Buckeyes have the most impressive victories against two top 10 teams (Notre Dame, 17-14, and Penn State, 20-12). What stands out is their dominant defense, yielding just 10 points per game. As long as they win the conference championship, they're in, but Michigan is still on the schedule.
No. 2 Georgia (8-0). The Bulldogs' biggest problem right now is their strength of schedule. It gets better in the next three weeks as they play three ranked teams. Whether it's their reputation or what they've done on the field, they are in as SEC champs even if they stumble once.
No. 3 Michigan (8-0). Talk about teams that haven't played anybody — not one ranked team. But being from the conference of influence and affluence, even a close loss to Ohio State may not eliminate them from contention.
No. 4 Florida State (8-0). The Seminoles have a victory over No. 13 LSU (45-24) and they are in if they are undefeated ACC champions. Any stumble along the way and fuhgeddaboudit.
First four out
No. 5 Washington (8-0). The Huskies have an impressive victory over No. 7 Oregon, (36-33). They are automatically in if they run the table and win the Pac-12. But any loss and they would need help. Their schedule is backloaded starting with USC this week.
No. 6 Oregon (8-0). Other than that road loss to Washington, the Ducks have looked very impressive. Even if they win out and are conference champs, a one-loss SEC or Big Ten non-champion could complicate things.
No. 7 Texas (8-0). A huge victory at Alabama (34-24) helped but the Longhorns need to win the Big 12 championship to have any chance at this point.
No. 8a. Alabama (7-1). How impressive have the Tide looked? Except for a victory over Ole Miss (24-10), not very. It starts this week with their CFP elimination game against LSU. No room for error. Must be SEC champs.
No. 8b. Oklahoma (7-1). Lost to a tough Kansas team (38-33) but their chances remain the same as No. 7 Texas.
Let's simplify where we are right now. Any one-loss SEC or Big Ten Champion (Penn State, Missouri, Mississippi included) still control their own destiny if they are conference champions. The same thinking does not apply to the Big 12 or Pac 12 champions. The ACC? It's undefeated Florida State or bust. There would be real chaos if two-loss No. 13 LSU ran the table (not likely) and won the SEC. The PAC 12 is the best league from top to bottom in the country but because they are beating each other, only Washington remains undefeated and only their conference champion has a chance at qualifying. If things go the wrong way, Washington may be their only hope. Having said that, it's too early to accurately predict anything as a plethora of games with national implications remain to help sort this out.
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This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Ken Schreiber predicts the first College Football Rankings of season
