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College Basketball Best Bets, Feb. 1: Vermont Catamounts vs Albany Great Danes

NBC Sports
·2 min read

Vaughn Dalzell predicts a team total prop in an American East battle between the Vermont Catamounts and Albany Great Danes.

Albany at Vermont (-11.5): O/U 148.5

The Vermont Catamounts are back in action against the Albany Great Danes as they look to continue their seven-game winning streak (7th-longest streak).

Dating back to the previous seven matchups, Albany averaged 63.4 points per game versus Vermont and scored 68 points once, which is the Great Danes' team total (68.5).

Albany has not scored more than 68 points against Vermont since 2/1/2020. Going back to 2017 or the previous 15 meetings, the Great Danes scored 69-plus points once.

Vermont boasts the best defense in the conference and plays at the slowest tempo, which is the opposite style Albany with (1st in offensive pace). This is Albany's third-straight road game, while Vermont is coming home after three consecutive on the road.

When the Catamounts are at home, Vermont holds conference opponents to an American East-best 40.9% from two-point range and a 20% defensive rebounding percentage -- which are both of Albany's strong suits.

Vermont fouls at a bottom-10 rate in the country and ranks top 10 in offensive turnover percentage, so with its 346th-ranked tempo (335th on offense), I expect the Catamounts to control this game throughout.

When Albany has played against top 100 teams this year (0-3 record), they scored 71, 71, and 52 points against UMass, Seton Hall, and Drexel. Vermont is ranked 109th and 120th, so we should see similar results.

Lastly, I found it interesting that the only game Albany is projected to score fewer than 70 points in conference road play is here at Vermont.

I played the Great Danes' Team Total Under 68.5 at -113 odds on FanDuel and would go down to 66.5. DraftKings currently lists this at -120 odds to the Under.

Pick: Albany Team Total Under 68.5 (1u)

Season Record: 22-19 (53.6%) +0.68u

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