Coco Gauff must get through elite players to win at French Open, starting with Iga Swiatek

Coco Gauff is eventually going to win one of these French Opens. That’s what her career path suggests, at least. Already a staple in the world’s top 10, already proven in her aptitude on the red clay, already a favorite of the Parisian crowd, this is the tournament where the 19 year old is most likely to make the long-awaited leap from teenage prodigy to champion.

But for it to happen this year, Gauff will have to do something she’s never come close to doing before: Beat Iga Swiatek.

One year ago, Gauff rode a friendly draw and a wave of good form all the way to the finals at Roland Garros. It looked like Gauff, who has been a huge part of the conversation since making the fourth round at Wimbledon as a 15 year old, might fulfill her destiny as a Grand Slam champion right there.

Then the match began, and it became clear Gauff hadn’t really come all that close. Her level, at least on that day, simply was not on the same planet as the 22-year-old Polish sensation, who efficiently ended Gauff’s run 6-1, 6-3.

As they prepare to face each other again Wednesday in the quarterfinals, it’s hard to believe much has changed. Swiatek has won all three meetings since last year’s French final, with a combined game score of 36-12.

In fact, if there’s one question mark about where Gauff’s career is headed at this stage, it’s whether she has the extra gear to beat Swiatek and the other elite players you must get through to win a Grand Slam.

Gauff wins a lot of matches on the WTA Tour, which is no small feat given its current depth of talent. Her week-in, week-out consistency is why she’s risen to No. 6 in the world.

SPORTS NEWSLETTER: Sign up now to get top sports headlines delivered daily

Coco Gauff's path to Grand Slam glory

But since the beginning of 2022, Gauff’s record is a pedestrian 5-16 when she runs into someone ranked in the top 15. That suggests nothing about what she’s going to do in future, but it does tell us Gauff still has another big step or two before she starts winning the kind of trophies she desires.

For some, that might be a disappointment given how long Gauff has been touted as the “next big thing” in tennis. But realistically, it would be unusual if she was already reaching her potential at age 19. Last year, Swiatek was 21 when she established herself as the best player in the world. It took Aryna Sabalenka until age 24 to win her long-awaited Grand Slam and play the best tennis of her career. Elena Rybakina was a boom-or-bust type of player when she won Wimbledon last year at 23, but she has now matured into a force on every surface.

So even if Gauff isn’t likely to have a career that resembles the dominance of Serena Williams, she is very much still on track to do special things.

Iga Swiatek is a formidable obstacle for Coco Gauff

Wednesday’s match will tell us if she’s gotten any closer.

Beating Swiatek, at the moment, is the ultimate challenge in women’s tennis — especially on a clay court where her combination of athleticism and heavy spinning groundstrokes seem to devastate opponents. In the last two years, she’s 30-3 on clay with one of those losses coming last month when she retired with an injury in the third set. She’s the heavy favorite to win a third French Open title this week.

Gauff, on the other hand, still seems to be working through her identity as a player. The basis of her game has always been that beautiful backhand and explosive movement. With a serve that has consistently improved over the years, she has enough to beat the players she’s supposed to beat most of the time.

That pattern continued at this year’s French Open, where her opponents so far have been ranked No. 71, No. 61, No. 143 and No. 100.

Coco Gauff's game still needs work

But opponents of the highest quality present different tests and know how to exploit weaknesses. And for Gauff, that means a relentless attack on her forehand, a stroke plagued by some technical flaws that seems especially prone to break down in the most pressure-packed moments.

It’s no secret; everyone on the WTA Tour knows it. Paula Badosa even admitted after beating Gauff 6-3, 6-0 to win in Madrid earlier this year that the tactic was just to make her hit as many forehands as possible.

It’s been so bad at times — and so obviously holding Gauff back from the highest level of success — that some commentators have suggested maybe taking six months off to rebuild her forehand from the ground up.

Gauff seems intent to stay the course, though there are possible inflection points coming. She’s still young, but she’s no longer a kid out on the tour. Is she still ascending or plateauing?

That question may have something to do with Diego Moyano departing as coach earlier this year. It certainly puts pressure on whomever Gauff and her father Corey choose next to unlock her potential.

But Gauff still has a chance to demolish that narrative by winning this French Open, not the theoretical one in her future. All she has to do is beat the best player in the world on the toughest court to do it.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Coco Gauff faces Iga Swiatek in first big French Open test