How Cincinnati Reds plan to beat odds again in 2024 with underwhelming, overlooked moves

Now that the Cincinnati Reds say they’re done with their heavy lifting for the winter, how much closer are they to becoming heavyweights in the National League — or at least the NL Central?

So far, that’s at least debatable — even laughable, depending which analytics website or oddsmaker you check in with.

Maybe that’s because $105 million doesn’t go as far as it used to during these inflationary times. Maybe that’s because most of the baseball world looks at the Reds’ big moves and sneers “big deal.”

Reds offseason signings Newest Cincinnati Reds free agent on team's spending: "That means they really want it."

Reds starting pitching Cincinnati Reds 'pretty much done' adding players after signing free agent Frankie Montas

Reds starting rotation Why Reds have confidence in Frankie Montas, who had shoulder surgery last year

None of the five free agents the Reds signed this winter has been an All-Star. Their biggest signing, corner infielder Jeimer Candelario, was non-tendered by the Detroit Tigers less than 13 months before the Reds gave him a three-year, $45 million deal.

Their $26 million rotation candidate, Nick Martinez, spent four years in Japan before returning to the majors and spending the last two seasons as a swingman for the San Diego Padres. And the one big-league short-inning guy they added, Emilio Pagán, had a 4.61 ERA over the previous three seasons before turning in a 2.99 performance for the Minnesota Twins in 2023.

And that doesn’t even count freshly signed Reds starter Frankie Montas, who got the biggest one-year deal for a pitcher ($16 million) after pitching just 1 1/3 innings for the New York Yankees all season in 2023.

It’s no wonder analysts outside Cincinnati — including those setting the odds in Las Vegas — have reacted with a collective shrug to one of the franchise’s biggest offseasons of spending.

Team is definitely improved

But as Reds president Nick Krall said this past week after declaring he was “pretty much done” adding this winter, “We have to look at ourselves and how we’ve improved with ourselves.”

Anybody who watched the Reds defy the odds last season with their youth-fueled run into contention, with a starting rotation in tatters, knows they have improved since then.

Reds bullpen additions Reliever Buck Farmer returns to Cincinnati Reds on $2.25 million, one-year contract

Candelario, Montas, Martinez and even Pagán fill targeted needs that in a best-case scenario provide the kind of versatile, switch-hitting veteran to lend stability to a young and volatile lineup, and add enough depth and insurance to a young rotation to lead to significant improvement from last year’s near-bottom-level performance.

That hasn’t kept Vegas from making the Reds one of the bigger longshots to win the National League pennant, never mind the World Series — only four NL teams have longer odds, according to BetMGM.

That same oddsmaker has the Reds actually falling one spot in the NL Central, to fourth, according to this week’s odds — with the St. Louis Cardinals jumping from last place to division favorites on that list after signing three starting pitchers, including Reds target (and former Red) Sonny Gray.

Fangraphs.com, maybe the top baseball analytics site, also projects the Reds to finish fourth despite the additions — not to mention the fact that the Chicago Cubs have added nobody so far this winter after losing All-Stars Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger.

Fangraphs cites solid rotation if healthy

But here’s the thing: Fangraphs also ranks the Reds’ current rotation fifth among all MLB teams, probably because of the strong prognosis for the talented core of that group opening spring training in good health.

Consider that Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Montas accounted for 14 combined months on the injured list in 2023.

Fourth best in a weak, five-team division? But fifth-best starting rotation in the game?

Sounds like an Alanis Morissette song.

If anything, this Reds offseason and roster represents a bundle of ironies less than six weeks ahead of pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training.

Consider:

They opened the winter with an infield so overrun with good players and projected starters that everybody else in baseball expected them to trade from that group to add pitching — with Jonathan India prime among the names on the hot list of rumors.

Instead, their biggest free agent signing in years was an infielder. And India is not only still with the club but is now considered at least a part-time outfielder.

No shortage of talent in infield

That young infield is so rife with talent that it’s recognized as the singular reason the team contended last year and probably why the Reds aren’t projected to finish in last place — with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte all debuting after the first six weeks of the season.

But not even the Reds can tell you what their opening infield alignment will be, even if you guaranteed them all of those players will be healthy and tell the platoon minded braintrust whether a left-hander or right-hander will be starting against them on Opening Day.

Krall suggested that injuries often play a role in how things ultimately shake out — raising last year’s pitching staff and the 2021 position-player group as examples. In fact, Marte suffered a hamstring injury in winter ball that might put him on a more deliberate schedule as camp opens next month.

“I think it’s just trying to build more depth and figure out where everybody fits,” Krall said.

All else being equal, the most likely infield scenario has De La Cruz and McLain manning the middle infield spots — assuming De La Cruz shows the kind of improvement at the plate the club needs to see this spring (don’t @ me).

De La Cruz starting in the minors? Of course, it’s possible. On the other hand, he has the highest ceiling of the bunch, and BetMGM oddsmakers say he’s the team’s top MVP candidate — +8,000 (compared to Candelario’s +20,000, for what it’s worth).

And then there’s the ironies built into the pitching staff.

Club officials talked so much about the need to add reliable innings to the staff this winter. And then their big additions amounted to a glorified long-reliever and a starting pitcher who made one relief appearance last year.

Not sure that last one is as ironic as it might be tragic. Or brilliant, depending on how that shoulder holds up for the right-hander who was a rising star in the game just a couple of years ago.

“My shoulder feels great,” Montas said.

Fangraphs seems to think so.

Depth is always needed in starting rotation

“Everybody’s going to come in and compete for a spot,” Krall said. “We hope everyone’s healthy. But the fact is the average team used about 15 or 16 starters last year.”

The Reds used 17.

“So you’re going to have some guys that are going to end up being delayed into the season. That’s reality. It’s the same thing with the position players. … You’re trying to plan for this stuff.”

Whether they're the best-laid plans remains to be seen, starting in Arizona next month.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Who's on first and other unanswered questions as Reds wrap up winter