Cincinnati Reds have NL Central lead after series win over Baltimore Orioles

BALTIMORE — It’s the halfway mark of the season for the Cincinnati Reds.

Do you know where these kids are?

Where they’re headed? Who’s going to drive them where they need to go this summer and fall?

For the most part the answer is no to all of the above, with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and mostly Nick Krall exerting sizable influence over everything that happens next for baseball’s upstart darlings of June.

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But for now – after a thrilling 11-7, 10-inning victory over the formidable Baltimore Orioles, and another series win – the Reds are in first place in the NL Central at the halfway point for the first time since their 2010 division-title season.

Their 43-38 record is their best at the midpoint since they had the same record at that point in 2014.

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As for where the kids are or even who they are – never mind where they’re headed next – two storylines from Wednesday’s series finale in Baltimore got to the tell-tale heart of the matter:

• The Reds’ athletic, young lineup overcame an early 4-3 deficit to eventually earn their major-league-leading 29th come-from-behind win of the season.

• They were forced to come from behind again because of another poor start by a rotation lugging around a 5.91 ERA that ranks third from the bottom in the majors – ahead of only the crappy Colorado Rockies and the intentionally crappy Oakland A’s.

This time it was Luke Weaver (6.96 ERA in 13 starts) being staked to a 3-0 lead in the first only to give up four runs in the bottom of the inning as the Orioles sent 10 men to the plate. He retired 10 straight after that to get to the fifth with a 6-4 lead – but lasted only two batters into the fifth before the bullpen was asked to shoulder another heavy burden of innings.

That burden on one of the most overworked bullpens in the majors showed up in the eighth when, after Buck Farmer retired the first two batters, he gave up a single, run-scoring double, and two-run homer to the bottom of the order – quickly turning a 7-4 lead into a tie game.

This is where we mention general manager Krall is working the phones for trades to bolster a pitching staff that has three key guys on the injured list (Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Ben Lively) – but that wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when they were whole (only Reds leads).

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And then comes the part where Krall, in turn, reminds us: “Right now the conversations are in places that we are not – where we don’t want to go. And we’re trying to figure out if there are other matches out there for different players.”

But here’s the thing, looking ahead at the second half:

Can top Cincinnati Reds prospects Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz continue streaks?

If Matt McLain’s and Elly De La Cruz’ energetic, relentless lineup has shown us anything over the last few weeks that both rookies have been in it, it’s that they might not need to set the bar quite as high as other teams when it comes to the starting pitching necessary to compete.

Quality start? Forget that mediocre measuring stick that requires at least six innings and no more than three earned runs allowed (i.e., 4.50 ERA) to log a QS.

With all due respect to the Reds’ analytics geeks, here’s a freebie metric for Krall to consider when he shops for the starting pitching help he needs yesterday.

When these guys get even five innings – and allow no more than FOUR runs – they tend to win. A lot.

Call it a Reds Quality Start – or RQS.

The Reds are 27-14 when they get one of those – including 9-0 since De La Cruz debuted earlier this month.

They’re 16-24 when they don’t. That includes all five of their losses during the De La Cruz Era (7-5).

These comeback kids are so good at devouring opponents’ leads (see: Wednesday) that Krall might boost his team just by finding somebody able to give them a mere five innings a start almost regardless of what the rest of the line looks like.

Call those starts DORQS (Damage Oblivious Reds Quality Starts).

The Reds are 30-19 in those.

And if that’s all you need to win, if that’s all you’re looking for in trades, check out the difference that makes in what the market starts to look like.

MLB prospect recent history

A few examples:

Can’t get any traction with the White Sox on talks for Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.41 ERA)?

Pivot to a pursuit Lance Lynn, with his 6.40 ERA and the prorated remainder of his $18.5 million deal. Lynn doesn’t have many quality starts, but 11 of his 16 starts this year are RQS performances. And he has 14 DORQS.

Don’t like that 5.32 ERA sported by Washington’s Patrick Corbin?

How does it look if you knew he produced a RQS in 12 of his 16 starts – with 15 DORQS? (The Nationals will have to pick up a lot of the final 2024 season and deferred money left on his $140 million deal to make it work, but the lefty might be a competitive fit.)

Even Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles, who looks pretty unappealing at 1-11 with a 6.68 ERA, has produced an RQS nine out of 16 starts this season.

With 14 freaking DORQS.

You get the idea.

Can’t get the price as low as you want or need to get a deal done? Lower the bar.

It might be enough to get these guys into wild ride down the stretch.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Cincinnati Reds lead NL Central after series win over Orioles