CIF football semifinals: Previews, predictions for all four games involving valley teams

Before the four remaining desert football teams played their quarterfinals last week, we ran a poll on the website formerly known as Twitter to take the pulse of our followers on how well our desert teams would do.

We asked how many of the four would win last week, 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 — and only 14.1% of you truly believed. The most popular answer was two, but as we now know, the correct answer was four.

Well, here we are again. The same four teams are back and due to the weird world of coin flips, they have the same home and road split as Xavier Prep and Yucca Valley are at home again and Desert Hot Springs and Coachella Valley are on the road again.

The last desert team to play for a CIF-SS title was Rancho Mirage in 2015. Will any of these four end the desert drought? Could all four of them be playing for a CIF-SS title on the Friday after Thanksgiving? Here are our predictions and breakdowns of all four games.

Coachella Valley (10-1) at Cerritos (7-5)

What: Division 12, semifinal playoff game (Friday, 7 p.m. at Gahr High School)

Know the foe: Cerritos made the playoffs as the champions of the four-team 605 League. Cerritos beat Fillmore 24-12 in the opener and then outscored Western Christian 55-44 last week. Impressively, both wins came on the road. Their league provided no resistance as the Dons' three wins came by a combined score of 120-7.

Common opponents (0): None. But if you want to really extrapolate things, Cerritos beat Buena Park 14-7. That's the team that lost to Yucca Valley 35-0 in the other half of the Division 12 bracket last week.

Inside the matchup: The Arabs better be ready to defend in the trenches, because Cerritos likes to run the ball, and they do it with multiple ball-carriers. In their 55-44 win last week, Cerritos threw a grand total of three passes. However, they had six rushing touchdowns. They had 287 yards rushing with three different ball-carriers getting 10-plus carries and rushing for more than 70 yards. Dikshanta Adhikari had 111 yards on 14 carries. Josh Park had 72 yards on 11 carries and three touchdowns. Josiah Ungos had 71 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown and quarterback Justin Sagun had two rushing touchdowns.

What that all adds up to is that Cerritos is the type of team that can play the best defense against Coachella Valley superstar Aaron Ramirez, and that's keeping him on the sideline with long, run-based drives that end in touchdowns.

Cerritos played a weird game last week. They jumped out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead on Western Christian which included a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown and led 41-12 entering the fourth quarter before giving up a remarkable 32 fourth-quarter points requiring them to hold on for a 55-44 win.

No one has come close to slowing down Ramirez this postseason. Ramirez was his usual amazing self in the Arabs' 52-35 win against Don Lugo. He rushed for 376 yards after rushing for 391 yards in the first-round playoff game.

What will likely decide the game: Like every Coachella Valley game it will come down to if the other team is capable of slowing down Ramirez, and if they sell out to do so, can the Arabs hurt them in the passing game with quarterback Derek Calderon and receiver Mikey Rodriguez leading that charge. It will be a stark contrast from the last game when Don Lugo preferred a pass-happy approach, while Cerritos is a ground and pound team.

If Cerritos can take time off the clock with long sustained drives that result in touchdowns, that may be the recipe to beat Coachella Valley. It's unlikely they've seen a back with Ramirez's talents, so it will be fascinating to watch their approach to slowing him down.

Conversely, if the Coachella Valley can jump out to an early lead, Cerritos doesn't seem like the type of team equipped to open up the passing attack and score quickly that way.

This is the first-ever trip to the semifinals for Cerritos and the first for Coachella Valley since 1965, and if my math is right, no current player on the Arabs' roster was on that 1965 team.

Coachella Valley coach Bill Johnson says: "Cerritos will be very different from Don Lugo in terms of what our defense is going to ace. They line up and they like to run the ball, but run-based teams are nothing new for us, most of the teams we play are that way, so it won't be something new. But that doesn't mean it won't be a challenge. We know what the prize is, an opportunity to play in a final at home and maybe against a team that beat us earlier that we would love to see again. We're excited about that possibility, but in order to get that we've got to beat Cerritos. And players, coaches, everyone is laser-focused on that task."

Cal Preps predicted score: Coachella Valley 35, Cerritos 28

Andrew John’s predicted score: Coachella Valley 42, Cerritos 24. Last time Cerritos faced a team that Cal Preps rates as high as Coachella Valley, the Dons lost, 27-0. I think this game will be more competitive but I also think the Arabs will still score a ton of points.

Shad Powers’ predicted score: Coachella Valley 38, Cerritos 20. I think Cerritos maybe able to keep the Arabs under their traditional 40 or 50-point threshold by eating up some clock with their stout running game. But in the end, I think the Arabs will find a way to open up a lead and I don't think Cerritos is a comeback type of team.

Desert Hot Springs (9-3) at St. Monica Prep (9-3)

What: Division 13, semifinal playoff game (Friday, 7:30 p.m. at Santa Monica College)

Know the foe: St. Monica Prep is 9-3 overall and finished third in the Camino Real League. They beat Santa Ana Valley 27-0 in their first-round game and outdueled Montclair 45-42 in round two. They are a high-scoring team, averaging 34 points per game on the year.

Common opponents (0): None.

Inside the matchup: St. Monica Prep is an unusual team in that its top two skill position players are both freshmen. But don't let the age fool you. Quarterback Bradley Cassier threw for an eye-popping six touchdowns in last week's win, and running back Elijah Wilson averages around 140 yards per game rushing. The favorite receiving target for Cassier is senior Joshua Barnes who had eight catches for 203 yards and five touchdown catches last week.

Form has held in this part of the Division 13 bracket as Desert Hot Springs entered as the No. 2 seed and St. Monica Prep is the No. 3 seed, so it makes sense that they would meet up in this matchup.

What will likely decide the game: If the Golden Eagles' playoff history is any indicator, probably a two-point conversion on the final play of the game. Desert Hot Springs has had two dramatic escape jobs in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and all signs point to this being another close game.

Desert Hot Springs accomplished its goal of getting talented tailback Christian Davis more involved in the offense as he had 210 yards rushing and four touchdowns. This week will probably require a more balanced attack with quarterback Messiah Smith and the receiving corps being equal partners in the offensive load.

Defensively, the Mariners pose a formidable threat, particularly in their aerial attack. DHS hasn't seen a ton of pass-happy teams in the course of the season, so its secondary will have to be disciplined and mistake-free. Eliminate the big plays. If St. Monica Prep is going to score, make them earn it.

Coach Roy Provost said the team has a lot of respect for St. Monica Prep but is feeling confident in themselves, too. He is impressed by the Mariners passing game but feels like there are areas that his team can exploit as well.

Desert Hot Springs coach Roy Provost says: "We're ready for anything at this point. We've seen a lot this season. We know what we're made of and our confidence is high. We're not looking past anyone, we're looking at what's in front of us and that's the semifinal round in this bracket. We know that practice in November is a blessing. Not everyone has this opportunity. CIF has been at the top of our goal sheet since the beginning. Everything we've accomplished along the way has been amazing. We're living our credo of 'Outwork everyone.' It's our way of life. This is such a great moment for us and we're grateful to enjoy this."

Cal Preps predicted score: Desert Hot Springs 34, St. Monica 31

Andrew John’s predicted score: Desert Hot Springs 26, St. Monica 20. I expect this game to be close. I don't know if the moment will be too big for the Golden Eagles, but I know that this team will fight and claw for that win.

Shad Powers’ predicted score: Desert Hot Springs 29, St. Monica 28. Why not make it three in a row. All signs point to this being another nail-biter, and let's give it to the Golden Eagles with another win thanks to a late two-point conversion. The magical season continues.

Santa Fe (9-3) at Yucca Valley (9-3)

What: Division 12, semifinal playoff game (Friday, 7 p.m. at Yucca Valley High School)

Know the foe: Santa Fe, located in Santa Fe Springs, between Los Angeles and Anaheim, finished the regular season second in the Del Rio League. The Chiefs average 30.7 points per game, allow 20.6 points per game and are on a five-game win streak.

Santa Fe has a balanced offense, but it starts with the run game. Senior Tariq Bush has run for 1,908 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Senior quarterback Adrian Huguez has thrown for 1,279 yards and 19 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions.

Defensively, the Chiefs aren't particularly strong. Santa Fe has given up 28 or more points to four opponents, and more than 45 to two of those teams. While they have held four opponents to fewer than 10 points, Cal Preps rates those four opponents among the worst in the Southern Section.

Common opponents (1): Buena Park. This is an interesting common opponent because Buena Park decisively beat Santa Fe, 46-21, back on Sept.1. But that same Buena Park squad was absolutely obliterated last week by Yucca Valley, 35-0.

In that Buena Park win over Santa Fe, Buena Park running back Jaden Moore tore up the Santa Fe defense for 232 yards and five touchdowns on 22 carries. Against Yucca Valley last week, Moore was held to 109 yards and no touchdowns on 14 carries.

Buena Park was also competent against the Santa Fe defensive secondary. The Coyotes threw for 137 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, against Santa Fe. Against Yucca Valley, Buena Park completed just four of 23 passes for 44 yards and an interception.

All of the same key Buena Park players played in those games against Santa Fe and Yucca Valley. That seems to indicate that Yucca Valley is clearly the better team in this matchup against Santa Fe. But it’s not always that simple, is it?

Inside the matchup:  While the Yucca Valley defense will have its hands full in stopping Bush, the Chiefs are looking at a daunting task of stopping the Trojans’ dynamic offense. While Santa Fe is on a five-game win streak, their defense has not kept recent opponents from moving the ball up and down the field.

In the opening round of the CIF playoffs, against Rim of the World, Santa Fe allowed 296 yards on the ground. The Chiefs won, 19-14, but it was anything but decisive.

A week earlier, in a 35-25 win over El Rancho, the Chiefs allowed 288 yards and four touchdowns through the air.

The Sante Fe defense will now face a Yucca Valley offense that has averaged 164.3 yards passing, 308.7 yards rushing and 55.7 points over the last three games. Santa Fe has played tougher opponents than Yucca Valley over the last four weeks, according to Cal Preps, but not by much.

Consider this: Santa Fe has beaten nine teams this season, but none of them are rated anywhere near as high as Cal Preps rates Yucca Valley. The Chiefs’ best win came last week against an Arrowhead Christian squad that Cal Preps rates -11.2. Cal Preps rates Yucca Valley 2.9.

Santa Fe’s other wins have come against teams rated -18.1, -23.9, -42.5, -46.9, -21.6, -31.7, -24.1 and -13.6.

Yucca Valley’s wins have come against teams Cal Preps rates as follows: -25.5, -49.9, -12.4, 0.2, -18.1, -34.2, -44.3, -18.3 and -9. The Trojans’ one win against a team rated higher than Santa Fe came in a decisive 69-45 win over Coachella Valley.

What will likely decide the game: What will decide the outcome is whether Yucca Valley shows up focused, motivated and takes care of the ball. Honestly, it’s that simple.

The Trojans surely need to take Santa Fe seriously, as Bush will run all over the Yucca Valley defense if it isn’t locked in. But if the Trojans’ offense takes care of and moves the ball with the same ferocity it has in recent weeks, there’s no chance the Chiefs will keep up. Zero. Zilch.

While that’s just the opinion of one reporter, it’s one that is based on statistical analysis and having watched Yucca Valley play all season. If you try to stop Myles Harper, the Trojans’ dynamic tailback who has rushed for 206.5 yards per game (15.1 yards per carry) and 19 touchdowns in six games as the starter, the Trojans will torch you through the air. Quarterback Michael Ramos Jr. and receiver Javin Hudson hold every major school passing and receiving record and have been itching for an opportunity to play pitch-and-catch more often.

Since Harper took over at running back, the Trojans have outscored opponents 306-90.

Yucca Valley coach Jeremy Johnson says: “We love to throw the ball. That’s what we’ve done in the past with these guys and what we did all summer. But they’ve got to stop the run first.

"It’s a big advantage for us playing at home. We play well at home. The school has been good to us and the community has been good to us, so we’re excited to host another semifinal game.”

Cal Preps predicted score: Yucca Valley 38, Santa Fe 28

Andrew John’s predicted score: Yucca Valley 49, Santa Fe 27. While part of me worries about Yucca Valley going into cruise control and even losing some focus since the Trojans have been so dominant lately, I firmly believe the Trojans are the better team here. They go all out when they aren't expected to win. How about when they are expected to win?

Shad Powers’ predicted score: Yucca Valley 58, Santa Fe 23. Trojans just have too much going on the offensive end and if the defense is rounding into shape as well as last week's shutout showed, forget about it. That common opponent is pretty damning evidence in my book, too.

West Covina (10-2) at Xavier Prep (7-4)

What: Division 10, semifinal playoff game (Friday, 7 p.m. at Xavier Prep)

Know the foe: West Covina is the second place team in the San Antonio League and beat Paloma Valley and Beckman to reach the semifinals. The Bulldogs are on a three-game win streak and have won nine of their last 10.

Common opponents (0): None. But it's worth noting that West Covina lost, 41-40, to Don Lugo, the team that Coachella Valley just beat 52-35 in the playoffs. Xavier Prep held a 14-7 lead over Coachella Valley before their game was canceled due to lightning earlier this season.

While it's a simplistic exercise, and maybe even a stretch, one could draw the conclusion based on those results that Xavier Prep is the best of those four teams and West Covina the fourth-best.

Inside the matchup: West Covina, like a La Quinta squad that Xavier Prep faced in the first round of the playoffs, uses a smash-mouth, run-heavy offense. The Saints seemed to have that pretty well figured out against La Quinta, holding the Blackhawks to three points. But stopping the run is also not exactly the strength of Xavier Prep's stout defense, which has forced 31 turnovers this season, mostly by intercepting passes with their athletic, versatile defensive secondary.

Fortunately for the Saints, the Bulldogs forced just 12 turnovers in their first 11 games. That is an encouraging sign for freshman quarterback King Pellum, who will start for the Saints.

What will likely decide the game: What will likely decide the game is whether the Saints can either continue to dominate defensively or get a jolt of offense that has been absent in recent weeks.

Xavier Prep's defense has allowed just 17 points over its last three games, against three playoff teams, and that defense will either need to show up again or the Saints will need to score more than 14 points for the first time since Sept. 29.

West Covina has allowed just 13.5 points per game this season, so an offensive breakthrough won't come easy for the Saints.

Xavier Prep head coach James Dockery says: "Our defense is playing great, and we expect that to continue, but we also want to show that we're not just a defensive team. That may be our identity but we have a lot of offensive playmakers and we're going to try to put a lot of points on the board.

"This is a big moment for our program and our school and the plan is to take advantage of it."

Cal Preps predicted score: West Covina 17, Xavier Prep 14

Andrew John’s predicted score: Xavier Prep 21, West Covina 13. I'm not at all certain that all four valley teams will reach a CIF title game, but I'm not picking against the Saints here. According to Cal Preps, West Covina has not played anyone rated as high as Xavier Prep, let alone beaten anyone rated as high, and the Saints are motivated and playing at home.

Shad Powers’ predicted score: West Covina 21, Xavier Prep 17. All the coaches in the desert love being picked against, so perhaps this will provide something for coach Dockery to sink his teeth into. The team Xavier Prep beat last week was the No. 2 team in the division, which means this week's opponent West Covina is theoretically worse, but I just keep worrying that Xavier Prep's offensive struggles will bite them at some point. I don't want it to happen, but it's the gut feeling I have.

Andrew John covers sports in the Coachella Valley for The Desert Sun and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at andrew.john@desertsun.com.

Shad Powers is a sports columnist for The Desert Sun and the USA TODAY Network. Email him at shad.powers@desertsun.com.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: CIF football previews: Which valley teams will advance to a title game?