How Chase Elliott can surge back into 2023 postseason picture

The summer stretch of the NASCAR calendar is upon us and a past Cup Series champion sits well below the playoff picture with 10 races to go in the regular season.

Entering next Sunday’s race at Nashville Superspeedway (7 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), Chase Elliott is 27th in the standings, 84 points behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman for the 16th and final postseason spot.

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One can point to Elliott’s absence from a staggering seven of 16 Cup races this season as the 2020 titleholder missed six consecutive starts due to injury and was suspended from the trip to St. Louis after an incident with Denny Hamlin in last month’s Coca-Cola 600 as the reason for the deficit. In terms of results when the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is on the track, however, they’ve been steady outside of two DNFs at the Daytona 500 and Coke 600.

When Elliott has crossed the start/finish line, he’s finished inside the top 10 in five of seven races, including three where he finished in the top five.

His worst non-DNF finish in 2023? Twelfth at Talladega.

This push to the postseason will be new territory for the eighth-year veteran, who hasn’t been in a position where he may have to win to compete for this year’s series crown.

So far in his Cup career, each season Elliott has either had a win after 16 races or was inside the top 16 in points.

The good news for Elliott, as his career has shown so far, is that he really gets going around this time of the year. Seven of his 18 career wins have come between races 16-26 on the Cup Series schedule, including a blazing five-race stretch of 1-2 finishes last season that propelled him to the 2022 regular-season title.

He collected wins at Nashville, Atlanta and Pocono with runner-up performances at Road America and New Hampshire sandwiched in between. Outside of Road America, all those tracks are back on the docket over the next five weeks. The only difference is the debut of the Chicago Street Course on Independence Day weekend, which still could play into the hands of the 27-year-old with his prowess on tracks with left and right-handed corners (seven road-course wins).

What happens if Elliott can’t win? Can he make his way in on points alone?

Well, let’s compare him to his teammate Bowman, who is the last driver in the playoffs at the current moment. Taking into account Bowman’s average finish this season (12.0) and his average finish at the remaining 10 regular-season tracks, here’s where Elliott would hypothetically need to finish if he is to make the playoffs on points alone over his teammate.

NOTE: Stage points not included, Bowman’s projected finish at each track based on avg. finish this season and avg. finish at the following tracks

It’s not an easy task to score 10 consecutive top-10 finishes but it’s definitely possible for one of NASCAR’s superstars. And while the standings are due to change after each race, there’s a path for Elliott to reach the 2023 postseason without a victory. Luckily for him, that likely won’t be necessary over the next month.