Charlie Creme on Lady Vols' sinking NET ranking, dropping them from NCAA field and how they get back in

Lady Vols basketball is sitting dangerously close to 100th in the NCAA NET rankings after losing to Middle Tennessee State.

Despite a similar record to last season's start, Tennessee (5-5) was No. 86 in the first NET rankings in December. The loss to MTSU dropped the Lady Vols to No. 96. The ranking has fluctuated since then, but has now settled at No. 97.

In ESPN's updated bracketology, Charlie Creme dropped Tennessee from the field entirely – although it's not time to panic yet.

To get a gauge on how precarious the Lady Vols' position is, Knox News talked to Creme. Here are the answers to some of the biggest questions swirling right now.

How much do NCAA NET rankings matter in December?

It's important to note that in the explainer of the NCAA evaluation tool, it emphasizes that the NET "is most optimal with a full season worth of data, not in early December."

"It's a little bit of a concern, but it's certainly something that's rectifiable," Creme said. "It's just a little harder, because as the season wears on, changing your number does get more difficult ... It's not that bad, because there's still so much basketball to play.

"Let's not get crazy, let's not sweat it too much. This team was in a similar spot a year ago."

Why is Tennessee's NCAA NET ranking so low this year compared to last year?

Tennessee was No. 33 in the first NET rankings last season on Dec. 5, 2022, when it was 4-5. So why were the Lady Vols ranked No. 86 this year when they were 4-4?

To put it simply, Tennessee's wins at this point in the season were better. It beat UMass and Colorado and blew out Rutgers by 40 points and EKU by 34. The win margins boosted UT's ranking, since the NET algorithm values offensive and defensive efficiency.

This season, Tennessee has wins over Florida A&M (No. 321), Memphis (No. 153), Troy (No. 223) and EKU (No. 180). Its best win is a three-point win over Oklahoma (No. 55).

The Lady Vols' best win over Colorado helped them much more last season. And having losses to teams in the 50s like Florida State and MTSU this season doesn't help.

How is efficiency hurting Tennessee's NET ranking?

The adjusted net efficiency component is also playing a part in the low ranking. The NET takes into account the strength of the opponent, where the game was played, the result and how efficiently a team played.

The adjusted net efficiency measures the team's overall performance by offensive efficiency (points per possession) and defensive efficiency (opponents points per possession).

Here's how Tennessee ranks in key categories according to Her Hoop Stats:

• The Lady Vols score 99.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 84th nationally

• Their opponents score 96.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 248th nationally

• Their opponents score 73.5 points per game, which ranks 299th nationally

• Tennessee's margin per game is 2.7 points, which ranks 134th nationally

For reference, South Carolina – which has the No. 1 offensive and defensive rating on Her Hoop Stats – scores 117.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks No. 10. Its opponents score 67.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks No. 2.

What role does Rickea Jackson's injury play?

Tennessee's star forward has only played in two games due to to a lower leg injury.

Rickea Jackson's absence has played a significant role in losses. Those losses still matter, but there's "a partial asterisk next to them that the committee would take into consideration" if Tennessee plays really well with Jackson back in the lineup, Creme said.

"The committee members are still human beings, and they're still analyzers of basketball," Creme said. "So, they have a really good SEC season with Jackson, and they're going into tournament and she's healthy and she's playing well ... that would definitely be something on the minds of everybody in that room."

Are the Lady Vols in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament?

Right now, no.

Did the margin for error in SEC play get a lot smaller? Yes.

The most important thing for Tennessee right now is winning games. Last season, Tennessee went on a tear after the 4-5 start and won 12 of its next 13 games.

"If they put together a substantial SEC record, I wouldn't even sweat it," Creme said of Tennessee making the tournament. "There's still a whole lot of room for rising in terms of placement in the field and where they get seeded."

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But games against teams like Texas A&M (which Tennessee plays twice) Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State got a lot more important. If Tennessee gets stuck in the 60s of the NET and has questionable losses or falls closer to .500 in SEC play, then the NET ranking has to be examined with more scrutiny, Creme said.

The SEC historically gets six or seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. So, the Lady Vols just need to stay near the top of the conference and beat the teams they're supposed to beat.

"In some cases, just winning a bunch of games in the league and finishing third or fourth will take care of the NET number anyway," Creme said. "But just hypothetically, say it doesn't. Say they win a lot of close games, and the number is still in the 60s. But if they only have three or four conference losses, then I don't think that number is going to matter as much.

"(Right now) I'm not personally concerned about them missing the field."

Cora Hall covers University of Tennessee women’s athletics. Email her at cora.hall@knoxnews.com and follow her on Twitter @corahalll. If you enjoy Cora’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that allows you to access all of it.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Lady Vols basketball NET ranking: Should Tennessee fans be concerned?