Chargers vs. Vikings: Who has the edge?
The Minnesota Vikings host the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday at 12 PM CST in U.S. Bank Stadium.
Two teams come out of the gates in a disappointing fashion to start 2023. These two teams had playoff aspirations coming into the season and now, three weeks in, are in a must-win situation to keep those playoff hopes alive.
Not to say that 0-3 teams are eliminated from playoff contention, but out of the last 200 teams that have started 0-3 (since 1979), only six teams have made the playoffs. The most recent was Houston in 2018, who had to ride the back of a dominating defense to win nine straight to get back into the playoff race.
The Chargers are well aware that a team is still in the thick of it after losing two games and winning the third. That was their path to the postseason just last season.
In a game this important, every edge matters. In this exercise, we discuss who has the advantage at each position.
Quarterback
Advantage: Draw
Kirk Cousins is on an absolute tear right now. The only player with more yards than him throwing the football is Tua Tagovailoa and that high-powered Miami Dolphins offense. He’s fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt and tied with Jordan Love for the most passing touchdowns in the NFL.
Making this a draw is a testament to Justin Herbert’s talent and ability to create off-structure. The advantage could go to Kirk with his play thus far, but Herbert gets one more shot to prove that he truly is an alien among men.
Running Back
Advantage: Los Angeles
The Minnesota run game has a lot of work to do. So much so that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah pulled the trigger on bringing Cam Akers into the locker room to shore it up. Akers has familiarity in the system, but he won’t be playing this Sunday. That being said, 69 yards in two games is unacceptable. Only seven other teams have had run production this bad in the Super Bowl era, and none won more than seven games.
The Chargers running game is top ten in both yards and yards per attempt. Even with Austin Ekeler out, the trio of Joshua Kelley, Elijah Dotson and Isaiah Spiller give more optimism than the Vikings run game thus far.
The edge goes to Los Angeles.
Wide Receiver
Advantage: Vikings
The Chargers have a duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who complement each other well. Josh Palmer is a tremendous slot option, and Quentin Johnston’s talent cannot be denied.
But they’re not Justin Jefferson. While K.J. Osborn hasn’t been the best (his 16.7% drop percentage is the worst among receivers not named Kadarius Toney), he is still a viable third option. At the same time, Jordan Addison scored a touchdown in his first two starts. With one more, he’ll be the first to score a touchdown in his first three starts since Ja’Marr Chase in 2021.
While close, the slight edge goes to Minnesota because of Jefferson.
Tight End
Advantage: Minnesota
Gerald Everett is the perfect tight end for Los Angeles. He’s taken more pride in his blocking and has been a reliable target for Herbert underneath and up the seams. Donald Parham is just a massive human being who, when healthy, is a load to deal with in red-zone situations. A nice one-two punch for Herbert to work alongside the talented receiver corps.
Minnesota trots out T.J. Hockenson, who leads all tight ends in both receptions (15) and touchdowns (2). His ability to create separation in the middle of the field makes him an easy target for Kirk in critical situations. Josh Oliver is a reliable target coming off the bench.
While Parham does give more upside than Oliver as a backup, Hockenson leads most receivers in receptions and touchdowns, let alone tight ends. The edge goes to Minnesota.
Offensive Line
Advantage: Los Angeles
The Chargers’ 16.3% pressure rate is eighth best in the NFL. Their running backs are running, on average, 3.1 yards downfield before the first defender makes contact per carry, seventh-best in the NFL. This offensive line is humming right now and is making life easy for the playmakers on the outside.
The same cannot be said for the Vikings offensive line. Decimated by injury, they pray that left tackle Christian Darrisaw and center Garrett Bradbury can return to action. While the pressure rate is better than last season, Cousins has still been hit 15 times in two games, the most in the NFL. Running backs are seeing defenders in their faces less than two yards downfield.
The edge goes to Los Angeles.
Defensive Line
Advantage: Los Angeles
The Chargers’ defense has struggled, but their run defense has been okay. They’ve allowed 211 yards and 3.9 yards a carry, but it hasn’t been the main problem. Their defensive line of Austin Johnson, Nick Williams and Sebastian Joseph-Day makes running the football difficult.
Minnesota’s 4.1 yards a carry pales to their 332 yards given up, most of which came in their Thursday night game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are a highly-touted offensive line and earned every bit of the 259 rushing yards they got against the Vikings.
Hopefully, Minnesota can bounce back in this game, but after seeing them dominated in such a fashion, the edge goes to Los Angeles.
Linebackers
Advantage: Draw
On paper, the Los Angeles linebackers have a clear advantage. Nick Niemann looked good when Eric Kendricks left due to injury. Kenneth Murray has always been a talented interior linebacker. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are two of the more intimidating pass-rushers in the NFL. However, the pass rush has only generated pressure on 13.5% of dropbacks. Most of those pressures came against a Tennessee Titans team with a struggling offensive line.
The Vikings have their own talented linebacking corps with UDFA Ivan Pace and Jordan Hicks on the interior. Danielle Hunter is rushing the passer from one side and D.J. Wonnum from the other until Marcus Davenport makes his debut. While not as impressive name-wise as the Chargers, they were able to pressure quarterbacks on 18.8% of their dropbacks.
Given the talent on the Los Angeles sideline, this is a draw, despite the numbers favoring the Vikings.
Cornerbacks
Advantage: Draw
At the beginning of the season, if someone said that the Los Angeles defense would allow the most passing yards and net yards per attempt, the immediate thought would be that injury is to blame. However, that is not the case. J.C. Jackson and Michael Davis are both healthy and playing. Asante Samuel is at the slot cornerback spot. Granted, the Miami onslaught in week one was something that not many had seen coming. But 246 yards to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans seem like a bit much.
The Minnesota corners have had their ups and downs; but have been a solid unit overall. They are 13th in net yards per attempt and helped make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable on multiple occasions. There are the lapses in coverage, the miscommunication that allowed DeVonta Smith a free run up the seam, Mike Evans abusing the outside corner on a post, etc. But this unit has been solid. We’re still waiting on the first impact game from Byron Murphy, but he has been a solid contributor as well.
At some point, the talent of this Los Angeles group will have to show itself. Until then, the struggles from both sides end this with a draw.
Safeties
Advantage: Minnesota
Derwin James has looked good, but has not yet been the superstar James we all know and love. Alohi Gilman has struggled thus far when in coverage. Too many explosive plays have been given up, especially in the passing game. There are opportunities for teams to beat this team vertically, and poor safety play plays a significant role.
Minnesota’s three-safety look has paid some dividends for the Vikings as they allow for three unique skill sets in the back end. However, there are times when Theo Jackson or Josh Metellus may not be in a position to make a play, which allows the ball to get out quicker than the pass rush is able to get home.
The latter has not happened as frequently as in the case of Los Angeles, so the slight edge goes to Minnesota.
Specialists
Advantage: Los Angeles
Off of name recognition alone, Cameron Dicker may have locked this category up for Los Angeles. However, going 100% on touchbacks, extra points and field goals also makes it difficult not to give the edge to Los Angeles. Punter JK Scott’s four punts downed inside the 20 is impressive as well.
Greg Joseph has only had one field goal that he made from 25 yards out, but he is a perfect 6-of-6 on extra points. Punter Ryan Wright is currently third in the league with 47.9 net yards per attempt and is one of ten punters with 8+ punts and 0 touchbacks.
Giving the edge to Los Angeles, not because of the name, but the consistent leg of Dicker.
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