Chargers’ reasons for optimism vs. Jets
The Chargers return to primetime on Monday night following a get-right win over the Bears last Sunday night. Their opponent increases in quality, but only on one side of the ball, with the Jets hosting Los Angeles.
Here are four reasons to believe the Bolts will put together their second straight win.
Early down clamps
The Chargers have stayed in the top ten of yards per carry allowed despite two of their past three games coming against the top twelve rushing offenses (Chicago at 6th and Dallas at 11th). Los Angeles is in lockstep with Philadelphia and Tennessee in that department, two defensive line units held much higher regard than what’s been on the field at SoFi Stadium in 2023.
The Jets, meanwhile, are the lowest-ranked offense in EPA/play on third downs. They convert just 22.99% of their third down attempts, more than 8 percentage points behind the second-worst team. That gap is more significant than the one from 31st to 20th. New York’s yards to go on second and third down are near the most in the league.
Even with Breece Hall emerging as he hits his stride returning from last year’s ACL tear, the Jets have struggled to stay ahead of the sticks. While LA’s pass defense has left them prone to third and long conversions, their run defense should put them in enough positions to set up a movable object versus a stoppable force on third down.
Pass rush presence
One of the defining factors on those third downs on Monday night could be the effect the Chargers pass rush has on Zach Wilson. The 2021 second-overall pick deserves credit for leading the Jets to a 4-3 record, but his numbers, when pressured, still plummet the way they have for much of his young career. Wilson’s completion percentage drops from 67.1% to 42.3% when pressure starts to get home and is yet to throw a touchdown under duress.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, is beginning to round into form as a pass rush. Rookie Tuli Tuipulotu has been the breakout story, but his emergence has, at times, overshadowed the play of Khalil Mack. The former Defensive Player of the Year isn’t playing at an All-Pro level. Still, his late-career transformation into a monster run defender and above-average pocket pusher has brought a new vigor to his snaps.
The missing piece to this point had been Joey Bosa – not because he was playing poorly, but because hamstring and toe injuries had limited his impact through the first six games. Last week, Bosa was the healthiest he’s been all season, and he responded with five pressures. The Chargers now have free reign to put their best pass-rushing package – a four-man line of Mack, Bosa, Tuipulotu, and Morgan Fox – on the field for every third down.
Jalen Guyton's return
Guyton, who has been on PUP as he recovers from an ACL tear last season, told the media on Thursday that he expects to play on Sunday. (If he doesn’t, he would be forced to miss the rest of the season due to the 21-day window rules.) While his return won’t cause any large-scale changes to the Chargers offense, it does have some cascading effects that could open things up.
The primary one of those is that Guyton can take over the majority of the deep clearout routes that Quentin Johnston has been running, much to the chagrin of Chargers fans who want to see this year’s first-round pick more involved. Johnston had his strongest game of the season last week with five receptions for 50 yards after Joshua Palmer reinjured his knee. Palmer’s status is up in the air for Monday, which could push Johnston into a WR2 role. That leads to the second part of Guyton’s return: forcing defenses to account for his speed downfield opens up the intermediate areas of the field for Johnston to add yards after the catch.
It couldn’t come at a better time for the Chargers, who just piled up 208 yards after the catch against Chicago. Los Angeles leaned into that side of their offense on Sunday to great success, which should only encourage Kellen Moore to add it as a larger part of the game plan. With Guyton’s speed forcing the issue downfield as well, LA could put opposing defenses into a pretzel.
Run game optimism
The Chargers run game has struggled since Week 1. That’s not news to anyone. For a while, it seemed like the issue was that Austin Ekeler was out with an ankle injury, but even his return has not brought LA back to a functional level on the ground.
Look further under the hood, and there’s a glaring explanation that the Chargers finally addressed this week. The tight end run blocking has fallen off a cliff since that opening game against the Dolphins – Gerald Everett has needed to get more involved as a receiver, Donald Parham broke his wrist, and Stone Smartt and Tre’ McKitty could not get the job done. LA responded to the issue this week by waiving McKitty and replacing him with practice squad tight end Nick Vannett, an eight-year veteran who’s bounced around the league but always found the field because of his ability as a blocker.
Even beyond the addition of Vannett this week, the Chargers also found a modicum of success last week with a package including rookie offensive lineman Jordan McFadden lined up at fullback. There’s a limit to how much McFadden can be used in that role – his presence will scream to the defense that it’s a run play – but sprinkling it in, especially on the goal line, could help solve LA’s issues in short-yardage situations.
