Challenging accepted perceptions about each Big 12 contender
Perception is not always reality. That’s certainly the case of the Big 12 heading into the 2023 season. Rarely do the preseason predictions tell the story of the regular season, and that’s probably the case this season.
Texas hopes it is safe from that reality, as it has seen several first-place predictions to win its league. It could be difficult to mess up this opportunity. The Longhorns bring back 10 of 11 offensive starters. Respected voices that dismiss that fact likely reside somewhere just north of the Red River.
Some have already decided the Longhorns are built to fold like teams in recent memory without simply looking at the current roster. No other team can boast a lineup of more proven players than Texas boasts.
Texas’ list of irrefutably proven commodities includes Ja’Tavion Sanders, Xavier Worthy, Kelvin Banks, Jaylan Ford, Jahdae Barron, Jalen Catalon, Ryan Watts, Jerrin Thompson, AD Mitchell, Jordan Whittington and Christian Jones. Several others have played well on the field. That number of truly proven players is unmatched by any Longhorns team in recent memory.
With that in mind, let’s challenge a few other preconceived notions about Big 12 contenders.
"BYU is the least likely team to win the Big 12"
The above sentiment has been floated this offseason, and I couldn’t disagree more. BYU has Oklahoma State’s track record of strong culture without the portal exodus problem the Cowboys faced this offseason. The expectation has been set for the Cougars for awhile with head coach Kilani Sitake at the helm in Provo. BYU could have a tough season, but could just as easily win eight or more games.
"Gus Malzahn and the UCF offense are all gimmicks"
UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has a history of winning games with trickery at Auburn. He won that way until Alabama head coach Nick Saban and company caught on to his offensive trends. This isn’t Malzahn’s Auburn offense. This team can win with substance. The Golden Knights have as good a quarterback and duo of receivers as Malzahn had at Auburn outside of Cam Newton’s 2010 squad. This UCF team is too be feared.
"Baylor has a bad receiving corps"
Baylor actually could have one of the stronger receiver rooms in the conference. Monaray Baldwin, Hal Presley and Arkansas transfer Ketron Jackson make for an impressive trio. North Texas tight end transfer Jake Roberts is primed for a huge first season in Waco. This Baylor offense should put up points led by a strong collection of pass catchers.
"Kansas will fall off in 2023"
Put the above quote among sentiments that will age poorly. Kansas returns 10 of 11 offensive starters like Texas. I am unsure how Big 12 prognosticators are glossing over that fact. The Jayhawks are loaded offensively led by Jalon Daniels, Mason Fairchild, Devin Neal, Lawrence Arnold and Luke Grimm. The Kansas offense that returns all but one starter average 35.6 points per game last season. That doesn’t describe a team that will fold the following season.
"Texas Tech should be favored to win the conference"
Texas Tech should be really good, but its schedule is brutal. The team that went 1-4 in road games last season plays West Virginia, Baylor, BYU, Kansas and Texas on the road. The first three of those five will at least be imposing environments. The latter two will have difficult offenses to stop. In addition, Tech faces Kansas State, TCU and UCF at home. It’s a tough schedule. We’ll see if the team can overcome it.
"Oklahoma has a playoff contending team"
If you lined up the 2023 Sooners against even the 2019 Oklahoma squad, who wins? Oklahoma should be greatly improved in many areas, but there are still several weaknesses to exploit. Namely, wide receiver if Jalil Farooq goes down, offensive line play, interior defensive line play and cornerback play. The Sooners have a good roster as a whole because of huge upgrades elsewhere. That said, there are too many holes to call it a playoff roster.
"Max Duggan to Chandler Morris is a major drop off"
Chandler Morris won TCU’s starting quarterback job last offseason. Head coach Sonny Dykes and former offensive coordinator Garrett Riley are innovative, forward-thinking football minds. Morris showed his coaches something that indicated he could win games. The Horned Frog offense could be sneaky good in 2023 with its new starting signal caller.
"Will Howard is a proven commodity"
Will Howard was incredible for much of his abbreviated time at quarterback last season. He wasn’t very good over his first two seasons. We expect he will be good, but it shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion. There are two proven commodities in the league at quarterback in Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels. Outside of those too, you can’t predict with certainty how other Big 12 quarterback will perform.
"Texas is no different than any other year"
Texas has its best tight end since Jermichael Finley in Ja’Tavion Sanders. It has its best offensive line since the mid-2000s. It also has its best secondary since 2017, best linebacker since Derrick Thomas in Jaylan Ford and best receiver room ever assembled. It’s asinine to suggest this team is no different than Texas teams of the past decade.
