Cal just lost to Colorado in OT — does this put Justin Wilcox on the hot seat?
The California Golden Bears committed a big no-no on Saturday: They lost at Colorado to a bunch of Buffaloes which is widely regarded as being one of the worst teams in the country, definitely the worst team among all Power Five conference squads in the country.
Virginia isn’t as bad as Colorado. Boston College isn’t as bad. B.C. was able to beat Louisville earlier this year. Vanderbilt isn’t as bad. Rutgers isn’t as bad. Northwestern might be the one team in the Power Five ranks Colorado could beat, but it’s clear that the Buffaloes are not very good at all. They have been the worst team in the Pac-12 throughout the first half of the season.
After Cal lost to Colorado, one must ask: Is Justin Wilcox on the hot seat in Berkeley? Let’s examine:
FIRST KEY DETAIL
Justin Wilcox was reportedly offered the Oregon head coaching job last December before Dan Lanning accepted the job.
The obvious question: Why would he do that?
WILCOX'S PLAN
If Wilcox turned down the Oregon job to stay at Cal, that obviously was part of a plan. Wilcox would not have stayed at Cal if he didn’t see some greater long-term advantage for himself and his family.
THE REASONING
Wilcox stayed at Cal so that Cal administrators would not have had to fill a coaching vacancy in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. That was a gift to Berkeley and the school from Wilcox.
RECIPROCATION
Wilcox surely made the decision to stay at Cal because the act of staying on board — and not bolting for somewhere else — made life easier for the athletic department. The gratitude felt by the athletic department is insurance against bad performance. Wilcox will get to coach this team in 2023, regardless of what might happen in the next several weeks.
CASH
California is not in a position to hire a new coach for big dollars. The cash-strapped Berkeley athletic department is part of the drama surrounding UCLA’s exit to the Big Ten. Does the UC Board of Regents want to make UCLA subsidize the Cal athletic department? Wilcox has stayed on in very undesirable circumstances. He’s staying on to buy himself job security, instead of the high-stress, win-now situation he turned down at Oregon.
COVID-19
The COVID situation in the San Francisco Bay Area has been brutal for Cal and Stanford athletics, especially in the revenue sports. David Shaw is not on the hot seat at Stanford for a similar reason. Administrators know their revenue-sport coaches have been placed in a tough situation. This is why they aren’t going to fire Shaw or Wilcox this year, and probably not the next.
TRANSFER PORTAL
Cal and Stanford, due to COVID and academic constraints, have a very hard time loading up in the transfer portal. Wilcox is not going to be on the hot seat for staying on the job in a highly disadvantageous position. His bosses are going to realize that, whether that’s fair or not after a brutal loss to Colorado.
MERIT VS POLITICS
In terms of the politics of the situation in Berkeley, Justin Wilcox isn’t on the hot seat.
Based on merit, should he be? It’s fair to ask.
The Colorado loss is inexcusable. However, the win over Arizona was hardly an automatic “W” before the season began. Cal also played Notre Dame tough.
The broader argument for Wilcox needing to be fired is that Cal’s ceiling has been so low throughout his tenure. The Golden Bears have never seriously threatened to match the standard Jeff Tedford established in the early 2000s. Why bother to have a coach if he’s never going to get the program over the hump?
STANDARDS
Is it okay for Cal to never be better than 7-5 over a 10-year period? In many ways, that’s the question surrounding Wilcox. In the era of COVID and the transfer portal, it’s hard to see how Cal’s ceiling will rise anytime soon, but the thing with Wilcox is that the ceiling was low BEFORE the pandemic. That’s the tough discussion which should be conducted in Berkeley.
DAVID SHAW
As we noted above, both Bay Area schools are loyal to their football coaches. There is a feeling of gratitude for what they have done. Shaw is not on the hot seat. Wilcox isn’t exactly as safe as Shaw is, but administrators are going to go to bat for him.
