Butler enters Big East tournament with some work to do to get back on NCAA bubble
Even after a disheartening five-game losing streak during a critical stretch of Big East play, everything Butler wants to accomplish is still attainable.
The first step toward a possible NCAA tournament berth begins 4 p.m., Wednesday during the first round of the Big East tournament against Xavier. A win against the Musketeers sets up a matchup against No. 1 seed UConn.
Beating the Huskies is a lot to ask for a Butler team that skidded to a 4-6 record over its final 10 games. Among those final four wins is an upset over No. 13 Creighton on the road, and a three-point home win over fellow bubble team Providence.
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Butler's win over Creighton is as many Quad 1 wins as bubble team Indiana State has all season, one. Among the final four teams in, per Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology — ISU, Virginia, Colorado and St. John's — only St. John's (three), has more than two Quad 1 wins all season.
A win against UConn would be the best win among the remaining bubble teams and give Butler five Quad 1 wins on the season. Butler has a resume comparable with all the teams on the bubble. A win against UConn would set up a matchup between the winner of No. 4 Seton Hall and No. 5 St. John's.
Seton Hall is securely in the tournament according to Lunardi. St. John's is hanging on by a thread, so Butler fans need to root for a Seton Hall victory Thursday afternoon at Madison Square Garden.
A theoretical win over Seton Hall and a trip to the Big East championship game could be enough for Butler to get an at-large bid. Obviously, the best way to secure a bid is to win the Big East title and get an automatic bid, but Butler's resume may be strong enough to get it without it.
Fellow Big East teams Villanova (last four out) and Providence (next four out) are perceived closer to March Madness than the Bulldogs, who split results against the Wildcats and Friars this season.
Butler is 65th in the NET rankings. Xavier, the Bulldogs' opponent Wednesday, is ranked 64th, despite a losing record (15-16).
If Butler (18-13) wants to get on a run, it starts with its offense. Yes, defense wins championships, but the Dawgs haven't shown the ability to play lockdown defense for two halves all season. The Dawgs can outscore their opponents, and if they avoid the extended scoring droughts that have plagued them during the latter half of conference play, they have enough firepower to compete with anyone.
Senior guard Posh Alexander is having his best scoring output since his sophomore season with the Red Storm. Alexander is averaging 11.1 points per game and shooting a career-best 32.9% from 3. Over his past 10 games, Alexander is shooting 13-for-35 (37.1%). Alexander's ability to keep teams honest from deep should open up the offense for his teammates.
"He's put together a heck of a Big East season," Xavier coach Sean Miller said of Alexander after Butler's March 6 win over the Musketeers. "If you're shooting 37% in Game 20, I'll take that percentage on our end.
"To Posh's credit he's worked obviously (on his shooting). He's always been a terrific player. ... The dynamic of him taking and making open 3s not only helps Butler but it takes his game to another level. That's to his credit."
Center Jalen Thomas has also enjoyed an increased scoring output, reaching double digits four times in his past 10 games. Both Alexander and Thomas are known for their defense, but they'll need to seize their offensive opportunities if Butler wants to string together wins in NYC. Strong scoring from one of Alexander and Thomas, to go along with an explosive game from DJ Davis, Pierre Brooks II or Jahmyl Telfort, and the Dawgs could make magic in the Big Apple.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Butler enters Big East tournament with work to do to get back on bubble
