Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders prediction and keys to Week 3 matchup
These are fun times in the nation’s capitol, maybe not in the toxic political arena or the never-ending Beltway traffic, but certainly in regards to the beloved Washington Commanders.
This once-proud franchise that counts three Super Bowl victories - including one against the Jim Kelly Bills - has been mostly irrelevant since 1999 when Daniel Snyder purchased the team and proceeded to drive it into the ground. Few franchises have been more dysfunctional during his tenure, but those days are over.
Snyder sold the team in the offseason and there is renewed hope for a revival and jumping out to a 2-0 start has only fueled the excitement. If the Commanders upset the Buffalo Bills Sunday, it will be their first 3-0 start since 2005.
However, that won’t be an easy task because after struggling to beat the Cardinals and Broncos, the Commanders are stepping up in weight class against Buffalo, and no one knows that more than offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy who faced the Bills numerous times in recent years when he was with the Chiefs.
“First and foremost they’re a great defense,” Bieniemy said Thursday. “We’ve had a few battles with them when I was in Kansas City, it seemed like every year. They’re a great team, and obviously what they’re doing on offense speaks volume, the quarterback is a special man. This is a great test for us at this particular time.”
Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:
Buffalo Bills on offense
Last week, the Bills’ offensive line had a singular concern: Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. That won’t be the case Sunday against a Washington defensive line that is one of the best in the NFL. RT Spencer Brown was given plenty of help against Crosby, but the Bills won’t be able to do that as often because that will leave other linemen in potentially bad 1-on-1 matchups.
In their victory over the Broncos, the Commanders racked up an incredible 37 QB pressures, 14 QB hits and seven sacks of Russell Wilson according to Pro Football Focus, most of that damage by their starting front four. Chase Young, who sat out Week 1, had seven pressures as did fellow edge rusher Montez Sweat. Jonathan Allen had six and fellow DT Daron Payne had five. This is probably the best D-line the Bills will face all year.
Of course Josh Allen’s mobility should help him avoid the punishment Wilson endured, and this could be a day where Allen creates big plays with his legs, something that really hasn’t been a factor in the first two games. When he played this defense in 2021, Allen did a great job of maneuvering in the pocket and avoiding pressure and he put up 358 passing yards and four TDs in a 43-21 blowout victory.
As good as Washington’s front four is, the back seven is nothing special. WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis will have a chance to do some damage against this secondary which gave up 53- and 60-yard completions last week to Denver. Rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, a first-round pick, has been targeted nine times and allowed six receptions for 125 yards, though he did have a pick last week. And in the slot, Benjamin St. Juste has played well, but if the Bills can get Diggs lined up on him inside, that’s a potential nightmare for Washington.
Assuming the expected rain will still be a factor, the Bills may try to run the ball a bit more with their threesome of James Cook, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Commanders’ aren’t great at linebacker and have allowed 4.5 yards per rush so far which is tied for 22nd in the NFL.
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Buffalo Bills on defense
In the Sean McDermott era, the Bills have faced seven quarterbacks who had played five or fewer games in their NFL careers and the Bills have won all seven games while limiting the QBs to a sickly passer rating of 49.4. Washington’s Sam Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick, will be making his fourth NFL start so this is a trend that bears watching.
In his first two games this year Howell has played well - a 65.7 completion percentage, 501 yards, three TDs and one interception. But that was against the lowly Cardinals and the ho-hum Broncos, and in both games the Commanders were trailing in the fourth quarter before rallying to win.
Howell has done most of his work underneath on short passes, particularly in the screen game with RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, a staple in the Chiefs offense during Bienemy’s time there. The Bills had problems with screens in each of their first two games so that’s an area to watch, especially if the Bills’ pass rush gets rolling.
Howell is a guy who holds the ball longer than he should and the result has been 10 sacks. The Commanders’ offensive line is not great and the Bills should be able to get pressure with their front four, play seven in coverage, and confuse Howell with some of their expert disguises. One key matchup will be Greg Rousseau going against wildly inconsistent veteran Commanders LT Charles Leno. Rousseau could be a force and if the Commanders have to slide protection, that would create chances for Leonard Floyd and Ed Oliver.
If Howell decides to go downfield, he has some viable, fast WR weapons on the outside. Terry McLaurin is a stud and if he’s lined up opposite Christian Benford, Howell may try to take advantage of that. Curtis Samuel is a wily, productive veteran, and second-year man Jahan Dotson is a home run hitter who can line up inside or out. He’s off to a slow start which means he could be ready for a breakout.
Robinson has taken over as the No. 1 RB and he had a career-high 129 scrimmage yards last week at Denver including 87 on the ground. He also had his first game with two rushing TDs.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, Commanders 16
I don’t think the Commanders are on the same level as the Bills, which is why Buffalo should be able to go on the road and take care of business. Yes, there is a distinct advantage in the trenches for Washington’s defense, and I would have been worried about that aspect of the game if the Bills had the same O-line from 2022, but they don’t as they have upgraded at guard with Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence.
Allen carved up the Raiders with a quick passing game and that’s one way he’ll be able to combat whatever pressure the Commanders generate. Buffalo’s playmakers can exploit some coverage deficiencies in Washington’s back seven and as long as Allen doesn’t play giveaway and help the Commanders with short fields, I think Buffalo’s offense can control the game.
Bills vs. Commanders: News and notes
▶ Allen leads all NFL quarterbacks in completion percentage at 76.9%, and part of that is because after all the short passes he threw against the Raiders, he ranks 29th in average length per completion at 3.75 yards.
▶ The Commanders have 10 sacks in two games and are tied for the league lead with the Cowboys and eight players have a hand in the sacks. “I think we’re off to a good start with rushing (with) a pack mentality, and we’ll need that to continue,” defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio said.
▶ Before last week, Washington hadn’t scored 35 points in a game since Dec. 22, 2019.
▶ The Commanders’ rally from 18 points down in Denver was their largest on the road since they overcame a 21-point deficit at Detroit on Nov. 4, 1990.
▶ Since the beginning of 2020, the Bills have the third-best regular-season record at 38-13, trailing only the Chiefs (41-11) and Packers (35-17).
▶ Since the expansion of the NFL postseason in 1990, 41% of the teams that started the season 1-1 went on to make the playoffs, and only 24% of the teams went on to win their division, so yes, the Bills have some work to do to beat the odds.
▶ The Commanders are one of three NFC East teams that are 2-0, the first time that has happened in the division since 1989. And while this sounds crazy, the NFC East has the best overall record in the NFL since the start of 2022 as the Commanders, Eagles, Cowboys and Giants are a combined 50-24-2. The Bills have to play all of those teams this season.
2023 Buffalo Bills schedule
Mon. Sept . 11, Jets 22, Bills 16 (OT)
Sun., Sept. 17, Bills 38, Raiders 10
Sun. Sept. 24, at Commanders, 1 p.m.
Sun. Oct. 1, vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Sun. Oct. 8, vs. Jaguars, London, 9:30 a.m.
Sun. Oct. 15, vs. Giants, 8:20 p.m.
Sun. Oct. 22, at Patriots, 1 p.m.
Thur. Oct. 26, vs. Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 5, at Bengals, 8:20 p.m.
Mon. Nov. 13, vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 19, vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 26, at Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 3, Bye week
Sun. Dec. 10, at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 17, vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Sat. Dec. 23, at Chargers, 8 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 31, vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.
Sun. Jan. 7, at Dolphins, TBD
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Commanders prediction and keys NFL Week 3 matchup
