Advertisement

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars prediction and keys to the game in London

Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
·8 min read
1

LONDON - Technically, Sunday’s game at London’s gorgeous Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is a home game for the Buffalo Bills. But let’s cut right to the chase: It is not, in any way, a home game.

This is a neutral site affair against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a year when the AFC teams have the ninth home game on their schedules that the Bills lose out on.

Further, there’s the fact that the Jaguars not only play in London every season and are far more accustomed to the routine, this year they are playing back-to-back games here so they’ve been in England since late last week. If anything – with the exception of the "Shout!" song being played whenever the Bills score – it’ll probably feel more like a “home” game for them simply based on body clocks and familiarity.

Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletter Delivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana

Ultimately, the only way the Bills can put aside whatever advantage that might give the Jaguars is to just take care of business and play the high caliber of football that they usually do when in the friendly confines of Highmark Stadium.

“It’s football at the end of the day,” Bills QB Josh Allen said. “You got to be able to play your best in whatever process that everybody goes through for their own way. Make sure you get it done and be ready to go on Sunday.”

Sure, it’s cool that the Bills get to play overseas in a standalone TV window during East Coast breakfast time, but they may as well be in Green Bay. They’re going to be hunkered down at a facility called The Grove – the same place they were when they played a London game in 2015 – far away from the excitement of London, so there won’t be any touring of the town and enjoying the nightlife.

As general manager Brandon Beane told me way back in the spring when the schedule was announced, the Bills weren’t going to do what the 2015 Bills did, flying to London and spending the whole week there. Those Bills did get to see a few of the sites; these Bills won’t.

“We’re going there to win a football game,” Beane said. And if you think that was a veiled shot at the Russ Brandon/Doug Whaley/Rex Ryan regime, it might have been.

Here’s my preview of the Bills vs Jaguars game, followed by my prediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Stefon Diggs, coming off a three-touchdown game, will have his work cut out against a solid Jaguars secondary.
Stefon Diggs, coming off a three-touchdown game, will have his work cut out against a solid Jaguars secondary.

If there has been one trend for the defenses the Bills have faced this season, it’s that they have gone against at least one great pass rusher in every game, and in this one it’s Josh Allen. Yes, same name as the Bills’ QB, and the two have history. In 2021, the Jags LB had a huge performance against the Bills, including a strip-sack-fumble recover and an interception against Allen that helped Jacksonville pull off a stunning 9-6 upset.

Sunday, the LB enters the game tied for the league lead in sacks with six, though they came in two three-sack spurts against the Colts’ Anthony Richardson and the Falcons’ Desmond Ridder. In this game, his challenge will be quite a bit different as he’s going against the NFL’s leader in passing accuracy (74.8%) who has been AFC offensive player of the week in two of the last three weeks and is being protected by what might be the Bills’ most effective offensive line of the Sean McDermott era.

Outside of Allen, the Jaguars aren’t really a team that generates much pass rush pressure so Buffalo Josh should have time to pick and choose his targets working against a secondary that is pretty effective. It features an excellent CB in Darious Williams who is Pro Football Focus’s No. 1-graded coverage corner and had a 61-yard pick-six last week. There’s also CB Tyson Campbell, a long, athletic player, and opportunistic safety Andre Cisco to deal with.

James Cook was bottled up on the ground by the Dolphins so the Bills would like to get him going again, though it won’t be easy with LB Foye Oluokun roaming the second level. He’s a tremendous player with great range who leads the Jags with 46 tackles, fifth-most in the NFL, one year after leading the NFL with 184.

Still, this is a good but not great Jacksonville defense and if Allen plays cleanly as he has in the last two games, the Bills should be able to roll up some numbers.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Trevor Lawrence has been held to four TD passes through four games this season.
Trevor Lawrence has been held to four TD passes through four games this season.

One of the big storylines heading into the season was that Jags QB Trevor Lawrence was about to enter the stratosphere of elites in the league. He wasn’t yet Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow, but he was entering the conversation. Yet through four games, Lawrence has been, what’s the word? Meh.

That said, Lawrence, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, is certainly capable of breaking out and having a huge day, which he did several times in 2022 in leading the Jaguars to an improbable playoff appearance. Lawrence has all the tools you look for in a franchise QB and in some ways he’s similar to Allen. He has a big arm, he’s mobile, and he can produce plays that make you rub your eyes.

The issue he will face is the Bills pass rush, which has racked up 16 sacks and leads the NFL in sack percentage at 12.7%. And now it goes against a Jaguars offensive line that gave up 34 pressures in the first three games before settling down a bit against the Falcons last week. One thing to watch is whether LT Cam Robinson, who was just reinstated from a four-game PED suspension, plays in this game. If he does, that’s a nice upgrade, though he may have to deal with knocking off some rust.

One of the keys for the Bills will be to contain RB Travis Etienne. He can hurt teams on the ground, but he’s also a viable weapon on screen passes, so this is a day where LBs Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard will be tested by a player who has excellent speed and shiftiness. Of course, they did a pretty effective job last week against Miami’s Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane and few RBs are as fast as those two.

On the outside, Lawrence has a nice trio of WRs in Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, plus a reliable pass catching TE in Evan Engram so the Bills’ secondary – which won’t have Tre’Davious White and may not have Jordan Poyer – will be tested.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 20

It’s entirely possible that from a body clock standpoint, the Jaguars might have a slight advantage over the Bills, who just arrived in London Friday morning. But unlike me, who cannot sleep on a plane and did not on my overnight trip here, I’ll assume the Bills’ chartered plane was a little more conducive to rest and that they got some.

That out of the way, I just think the Bills are the better team top to bottom, their offense is rolling with 123 points the last three weeks, and their defense has been perhaps even better, allowing just 33 points. The Jaguars don’t rush the passer very well and Allen could have a big day through the air and that should be the difference.

Bills vs. Jaguars: News and notes

Calvin Ridley scored a touchdown last week in London in the Jaguars victory over the Falcons.
Calvin Ridley scored a touchdown last week in London in the Jaguars victory over the Falcons.

▶ Through four games, the Bills have scored points on 57.1% of their offensive possessions, which is No. 1 in the NFL. The Jaguars rank 19th at 31.9%. On defense, only 23.8% of opponents drives have ended in points against Buffalo which is fourth-best while the Jaguars rank sixth at 27.3%

▶ In the red zone, the Bills have scored a TD on 68.2% of their penetrations, sixth in the league, while the defense ranks ninth allowing TDs on 45.% of the penetrations.

▶ The Bills rank fourth in the NFL in first downs (92), fourth in completed passes (101), sixth in total yards (1,564), seventh in passing yards (1,012) and tied for fourth in yards per plays (5.9).

▶ Buffalo leads the NFL with eight interceptions and is plus-6 in turnover margin, third-best in the league. The Jaguars are tied for sixth at plus-4.

▶ Since 2021, the Bills have a league-high 14 games in which they scored at least 30 points while gaining at least 400 yards.

▶ Last year Engram, who formerly played for the Giants, set a Jaguars record for most catches by a tight end with 73.

▶ Since 2020, Ridley’s 15.3-yard average per reception (most of that with the Falcons, and factoring in that he sat out all of 2022) is the third-highest figure in the NFL.

2023 Buffalo Bills schedule

  • Monday, Sept . 11, Jets 22, Bills 16 (OT)

  • Sunday, Sept. 17, Bills 38, Raiders 10

  • Sunday, Sept. 24, Bills 37, Commanders 3

  • Sunday, Oct. 1, Bills 48, Dolphins 20

  • Sunday, Oct. 8, vs. Jaguars, London, 9:30 a.m.

  • Sunday, Oct. 15, vs. Giants, 8:20 p.m.

  • Sunday, Oct. 22, at Patriots, 1 p.m.

  • Thursday, Oct. 26, vs. Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m.

  • Sunday, Nov. 5, at Bengals, 8:20 p.m.

  • Monday, Nov. 13, vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m.

  • Sunday, Nov. 19, vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m.

  • Sunday, Nov. 26, at Eagles, 4:25 p.m.

  • Sunday, Dec. 3, Bye week

  • Sunday, Dec. 10, at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.

  • Sunday, Dec. 17, vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.

  • Saturday, Dec. 23, at Chargers, 8 p.m.

  • Sunday, Dec. 31, vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.

  • Sunday, Jan. 7, at Dolphins, TBD

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which will come out every Friday, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Jaguars prediction and keys to the game in London