Buffalo Bills midseason grades: Offense productive, defense has been hampered by injuries

ORCHARD PARK - As the calendar transitions from October to November, the Buffalo Bills are a team that certainly needed a weekend off.

They had what coach Sean McDermott called “a grind” in October that included a long trip to London (which they probably botched in terms of their travel plan, not to mention losing the game to the Jaguars); a much harder than it should have been Sunday night home victory over the Giants; a road game at division rival New England which ended in an inexcusable loss; and then a quick turnaround to play a Thursday nighter against the Buccaneers in another game they barely hung on to win.

So yes, the Bills welcomed a few extra days off before starting preparations for their huge Sunday Night Football showdown in Cincinnati.

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“We have a late bye (it comes in Week 13, the weekend of Dec. 3), so this is a mini-break for us at this point,” McDermott said after the Tampa Bay game. “I believe in hard work and all that type of good stuff, but it’s time to get a little bit of rest and try and just push back here and come back fresh and make this stretch run starting with an away game at the Bengals here.”

Through eight games - essentially the midpoint of the 17-game season - the Bills have been a tough team to gauge. They’ve had games where they looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and games where they didn’t even look like a playoff team.

As always, the reality is they are somewhere in the middle of those extremes, a team that is certainly capable of winning a fourth straight AFC East title, but also a team that might end up fighting for the last AFC wild-card berth.

Last year at this stage the Bills were in first place in the AFC East at 6-2 and there was a very good argument that they could have been 8-0 if not for inexplicable losses to the Dolphins and Jets. In 2023 they are a game worse at 5-3 but again, it probably should be better if not for two more inexplicable losses - to the Jets again, and to the Patriots - which has Buffalo sitting a game behind frontrunning 6-2 Miami.

The difference this year is the Bills have an infinitely more difficult second-half schedule staring at them than they did in 2022, so it’s going to be quite a ride over these final two-plus months of the regular season.

Here are my midseason grades:

PASS OFFENSE: A-

There have been times when it just hasn’t felt like Josh Allen and his receivers have been functioning at peak level, but in reality, the passing game has remained one of the most productive in the NFL.

The Bills rank fourth in passing yards per game (263.8), Allen leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.7%) and total touchdowns produced (22), he’s tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.6), and thanks to an improved offensive line and of course Allen’s escapability, they rank second in lowest sack percentage against (4.03%).

A note on Allen’s TDs: Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, no other QB has had at least 17 passing TDs and five rushing TDs through eight games. Outside of the nightmarish loss to the Jets when he turned it over four times, plus a couple other hiccups, Allen has been outstanding.

Stefon Diggs gets double-teamed on almost every play yet he leads the league in catches (64) and targets (90), is fourth in yards (748) and is tied for third in receiving TDs (6). Gabe Davis is coming off a career-best nine-catch game and perhaps he’s finally ready to put his inconsistency behind him, though I’ll believe it when I see it. And now Khalil Shakir is making a move to be the No. 3 WR ahead of Deonte Harty as the Bills have to switch to 11 personnel due to the injury to TE Dawson Knox.

We are also seeing what rookie TE Dalton Kincaid is capable of in the last two weeks, during which he has 13 catches for 140 yards and a TD. The Bills did not trade for a WR, so they must feel good about what they have. If Davis and Shakir can continue on an upward swing, Kincaid keeps developing, and Allen can utilize RB James Cook a little more in the hot read/short passing game, the passing offense should be fine, even with the massive increase in degree of difficulty pertaining to the schedule.

RUN OFFENSE: B-

It’s been ho-hum and the numbers back that up – 14th in yards per game (113.1) and tied for 11th in yards per attempt (4.3). Cook became the primary back when Devin Singletary moved on, and his production through eight games surpasses Singletary’s from 2022. Last year Singletary had 554 yards from scrimmage on 106 touches and one TD through eight games, while Cook has 120 touches, two TDs, and his 678 yards are fifth-best among all RBs.

However, it’s pretty clear that the coaching staff does not trust Cook in pass protection, nor in short yardage and goal line situations and he typically comes off the field. The now-injured Damien Harris was getting those reps early, then it was Latavius Murray, and now it might eventually be Leonard Fournette. He was signed to the practice squad and if he shows anything in practice, he could be elevated to the active roster once he’s ramped up and understands the basics of the offense.

One way to improve the run game is to keep Allen engaged the way he was against the Buccaneers. But it seems like the coaches are reluctant to take the governor off as a way to minimize the hits he takes. Allen’s baseball slide against Tampa Bay was a positive, and if he’s willing to do that rather than run through/jump over defenders, it might reopen the door to calling more runs for Allen and that would be big because that asset is so important for the Bills.

PASS DEFENSE: B-

One of the strengths of McDermott’s Buffalo defenses have always been the secondary, but there are challenges this season, which is why Brandon Beane made the trade to acquire CB Rasul Douglas from the Packers.

The loss of Tre’Davious White (again) is huge and that propelled Dane Jackson into a starting role. Jackson is a decent player, but he’s not White, and he’s not Douglas, who I would assume will become the starter once he’s comfortable with the scheme. Christian Benford has been a pleasant surprise, while primary backup, Kaiir Elam, remains a disappointment and has been a healthy scratch in five games.

At safety, aging Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are playing well, but not at the Pro Bowl level they’ve been at previously. Taylor Rapp has been mixed in over the last couple weeks when the Bills have used a three-safety look on passing downs as a way to replace injured LB Matt Milano, but Rapp has struggled to make an impact. That three-safety grouping is about to meet big-time challenges with the QBs and offenses they’ll be playing in the second half.

The Bills are still 10th in passing yards allowed per game (204.1) and are tied for 14th in yards per attempt (6.4), but they’re also 21st in completion percentage allowed (67.8%), and sixth-worst in most passes allowed of at least 20 yards with 27. Those last two numbers are problematic because the pass rush has been one of the best in the NFL and the DBs’ coverage times are lower because of Buffalo’s league-leading 9.89 sack percentage.

DT Ed Oliver is having a great season, as are edge rushers Leonard Floyd and A.J. Epenesa, and they’ve been key to the improved pass rush. Greg Rousseau got off to a great start but has been slowed by his foot injury, and Von Miller is still trying to get into game shape and he’s not there yet.

RUN DEFENSE: C

The losses of Milano and DT DaQuan Jones have been most felt in the run game because the Bills have been much more susceptible up the middle. And while it has been a little better the last two weeks, for the season the Bills rank 31st in average yards allowed per carry (5.1) and are 22nd in rushing yards per game (122.0), and they have allowed 25 runs of at least 10 yards which is tied for third-most in the NFL.

No one among Jordan Phillips, Poona Ford or Tim Settle has been able to replace what Jones gave the Bills as a one-technique run stuffer, and this is largely why the Bills signed 35-year-old DT Linval Joseph on Thursday, hoping that the former two-time Pro Bowler has something left to offer.

LB Terrel Bernard has far exceeded expectations as Tremaine Edmunds’ replacement and his nose for the ball has been eye-popping (team-high 76 tackles, three fumble recoveries and two interceptions). But Dorian Williams and Tyrel Dodson have fallen far short in replacing Milano to the point where Williams is now benched and Dodson is replaced by Rapp in passing situations.

SPECIAL TEAMS: B

Tyler Bass went through an uncharacteristic mini-slump when he missed three of four field goal attempts in the games against the Giants and Patriots before getting back on track with a 2-for-2 against the Bucs. Those are his only misses on 14 attempts, and he’s a perfect 25-of-25 on extra point so still rock solid.

He also has a kickoff touchback percentage of 65.2, which is his best since his rookie year. When the ball is in play, the Bills have been good at covering as opponents are averaging just 20.2 yards per kickoff return and the average opponent drive start of the 24.2-yard-line is third best in the NFL.

Punter Sam Martin has been very good, as Pro Football Focus grades him as the third-most effective punter in the league. Nine of his 21 punts have been downed inside the 20 and his net average of 39.6 yards is middle-of-the-pack only because the Bills’ punt coverage team has not been very good. Opponents are averaging 11.1 yards per return and one of those was the 65-yard game-winning overtime touchdown by the Jets in Week 1 which was also a terrible punt by Martin to the middle of the field.

In the return game, there is nothing happening. Harty had a nice game against the Bucs and it would have been better minus two killer penalties, but he has yet to provide much of a spark on his 11 returns. On kickoffs, the Bills have only had seven returns, the best being a 41-yarder by Harris.

COACHING: B

The noise surrounding McDermott and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been voluble, to say the least, and the constant blame being laid at their feet is a bit misplaced. Yeah, some of it is deserved, but not to the level that Bills fans have been barking this season.

McDermott’s defense has been shattered by injuries and while that’s never an excuse, it can’t be ignored when you lose three Pro Bowl-level players like White, Milano and Jones. He’s also dealing with some age at safety, and a defensive tackle rotation that, outside of Jones when he was healthy and Oliver, has been underwhelming.

Fans killed McDermott for his decisions to punt in the fourth quarter against the Bucs, but I thought they were the right strategical plays given the game situation. The problem was his defense was terrible on Tampa Bay’s last two possessions, similar to Leslie Frazier’s once was in several late-game situations (13 seconds at the top of the list). So in that area, McDermott needs to be much better, but so do his players.

On offense, did you watch the Giants vs. Jets game last Sunday? That’s what putrid offense looks like, and there are several other teams around the league who are nearly as bad. Yet, to listen to some fans regarding Dorsey, you would think the Bills are in the same category. Look, Dorsey drives us all nuts sometimes with his play-calling, but every OC in the NFL drives the fan base nuts. If Dorsey was so bad, how are the Bills’ offensive numbers among the best in the league?

They are fourth in points per game (27.8), fifth in total yards (376.9), fourth in first downs (22.6), first in completion percentage (71.6%), and second in red zone TD percentage (68.7%). I mean, let’s have some perspective here.

If there is criticism that is warranted, I’d say not figuring out how to get Harty involved in the offense is one, having Allen in the shotgun so much, especially in short yardage situations is another, and the propensity for calling run plays on second-and-long is always irritating. But all of that isn’t enough to warrant sending Dorsey out of town on a one-way ticket.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills midseason grades: Buffalo has prolific offense, Ken Dorsey criticism overblown