Bubble Watch winners, losers: Indiana gets big win, OT thrillers hurt at-large chances for Florida and Wake Forest

Ah, madness.

It's here. And there's no better way to enjoy conference championship week than a start that saw three overtime thrillers among NCAA tournament bubble teams. The push for an at-large bid — just a few days away from Selection Sunday — is in full force.

It started in the ACC tournament in Brooklyn, New York, on Wednesday night. Virginia Tech kept its season alive off a buzzer-beater to clip Clemson, while Wake Forest may have ruined its March Madness chances by falling in overtime to bottom-feeder Boston College.

And Xavier just can't win a game that matters. The Musketeers crumbled in overtime vs. Butler, bowing out of the Big East tournament and needing other bubble teams to falter if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That's six losses in seven games, with the only win coming against a Georgetown squad that went winless in conference play last week.

Then on Thursday, Florida went down to the wire in an overtime loss to Texas A&M – an outcome that will likely push the Gators from "the first four out" to out of contention to make the field of 68. Indiana, meanwhile, got the exact thing it needed in escaping fellow bubble team Michigan. That's an outcome that will likely shove the Hoosiers into the projected field, but it's in their best interest to keep on winning.

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A look at the winners and losers of the bubble:

Winners

Indiana. The Hoosiers (19-12, 9-11 Big Ten) started the day as one of the "first four out," but an 74-69 win over Michigan in the Big Ten Conference tournament could be the antidote to what was missing on their profile to appeal to the selection committee. That gives Indiana four Quadrant 1 victories, which helps offset a non-conference strength of schedule of 237. Last four in.

Saint Louis. The Billikens (22-10, 12-6 Atlantic 10) began the day as one of the "next four out" but took care of business by handily dispatching LaSalle 71-51 in the A-10 tourney opener on Thursday. A NET score in the 60s and just one Quadrant 1 victory are hurting Saint Louis' chances currently. Next four out.

Miami (Fla.). The Hurricanes (23-9, 14-6) clipped Boston College 71-69 at the buzzer in overtime, keeping their NCAA tournament at-large hopes in solid contention in the process. A loss would've led to some obvious sweating heading into Selection Sunday. A NET score in the 60s isn't ideal, but there's enough Quad 1 wins (four) on the profile to get Miami in. In the projected field, No. 11 seed.

Virginia Tech. The Hokies (20-12, 11-9 ACC) escaped Clemson 76-75 in overtime off a Darius Maddox buzzer-beating 3-pointer. The victory in the second round of the ACC tournament keeps Virginia Tech's at-large bid hopes alive, but this group will need to pick up a marquee victory if wants to go dancing. A NET score in the 30s is appealing, but just one Quadrant 1 win on the profile won't cut it. Next four out.

St. John's. The Red Storm (17-14, 8-11 Big East) took care of business in drubbing DePaul 92-73. It's a necessary outcome for a team that needs to get deep into the Big East tournament to be in the mix on Selection Sunday. A NET score in the 60s and a Quadrant 4 loss stand out in the wrong way on this team's tourney portfolio. Others considered for at-large bid.

Virginia. The Cavaliers (19-12, 12-8 ACC) lost on a buzzer-beater to Florida State on Feb. 26 in a game that has put their tournament dreams in jeopardy. But coach Tony Bennett's group keeps staying alive, barely surviving Louisville in a 51-50 win to advance in the ACC tournament. Now UVA needs a deep push to offset its NET score in the 70s and an ugly Quad 4 loss. On life support.

Oregon. The Ducks (19-13, 11-9 Pac-12) can pretty much count on the NIT and no NCAA tournament if they don't keep winning in the Pac-12 tourney, but an 86-72 win over Oregon State is a step in the right direction. There are four Quad 1 victories to go by here, but a NET score in the 70s really isn't good enough. On life support.

Losers

Florida. With the postseason on the line, the Gators (19-13, 9-9 SEC) rallied to force overtime vs. Texas A&M but ultimately fell 83-80 on Thursday in the SEC tournament. That likely shoves coach Mike White's team out of NCAA tourney contention and closer to the NIT. Florida's NET in the 50s, poor non-conference strength of schedule and a Quadrant 4 loss will stand out too much for the selection committee. Next four out.

Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons (23-9, 13-7 ACC) got upset in overtime vs. Boston College 82-77 to get eliminated from the ACC tournament in the second round. It's the worst outcome for a team that started the day as one of the "last four in." Now Wake Forest has been pushed to the wrong side of the bubble. There's just one Quadrant 1 victory on the credentials and a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 345. First four out.

Xavier. The Musketeers (18-13, 8-11 Big East) lost to Butler in the 89-82 to exit the Big East tournament in the first round. The selection committee will be relying on Xavier's body of work from November-January to be included in the field of 68. There are still five Quadrant 1 wins on this résumé and a NET in the 40s. Last four in.

Brigham Young. The Cougars' 75-63 loss to San Francisco in the West Coast Conference tournament likely sealed their fate of omission from the field of 68. BYU (22-10, 9-6 WCC) needed to do more in the WCC to have a shot, as all the power conference tourneys unfold. There are four Quad 1 wins on this profile but everything else is lacking. First four out.

***

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

• NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.

• Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET

• Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET

• Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET

• Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his ninth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past eight March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men's college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble watch: OT thrillers shake up at-large bids