Brock Purdy is likely MVP favorite after big game in 49ers' win, Dak Prescott's struggles

As unlikely as it seemed in the summer when Brock Purdy was rehabbing after major elbow surgery, and as ridiculous as it would have sounded last season when Purdy was still an unknown Mr. Irrelevant taking over the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback job, he is making a great case to be the NFL's MVP.

At some point, Purdy's numbers for a potential No. 1 seed will be hard for voters to pass up. Even if there are questions about Purdy's true talent level and whether his production is a product of the players around him or Kyle Shanahan's play-calling, the production has to matter. And Purdy has been as productive as any quarterback in the NFL this season.

Purdy's fantastic season continued on Sunday in a 45-29 win over the Arizona Cardinals. He had 242 yards and four touchdowns on just 25 attempts, completing 16.

Purdy has had a remarkably efficient season, with great numbers in per-play analytics and an NFL-best passer rating. He's doing it for a team that is generally viewed as the best in the NFL. That's usually the formula for MVP.

Brock Purdy has another big game

Purdy's main MVP competition heading into Week 15 was Dak Prescott, who had a rough day for the Dallas Cowboys in a loss to the Buffalo Bills. Prescott didn't cross 100 yards passing until deep into the fourth quarter, when the Cowboys trailed 31-3. That's great timing for Purdy.

Players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are still in the hunt and Prescott has a great case despite the Cowboys' blowout loss to Allen's Bills on Sunday, but Purdy should lead the field after he put up big numbers again Sunday.

Purdy did what he has done all season and consistently found his playmakers downfield. Deebo Samuel caught two touchdowns, including a really nice back-shoulder catch in the fourth quarter. That was Purdy's fourth TD pass of the game.

Christian McCaffrey — who might have an even better MVP case than Purdy if awards voting wasn't so quarterback-centric — added two touchdown receptions including a 41-yarder when the Cardinals defense lost track of him and he was wide open downfield. McCaffrey scored on a rushing touchdown as well.

Purdy said after the game that he thought McCaffrey was more deserving of MVP consideration.

"Dude, I think Christian should be MVP. I really do believe that," Purdy told reporters afterward. "He does everything for us. Runs the ball well, can catch the ball, he does everything. In my eyes, that's an MVP."

The problem is that since 2006, a non-quarterback has won MVP just once. McCaffrey has a good case, with 20 touchdowns to tie for the NFL lead, but he's fighting against a lot of voting history.

Arizona's defense is one of the worst in the league, and it wasn't a big surprise that the 49ers had little trouble moving the ball. But the numbers are still going to look good on Purdy's MVP résumé.

Purdy overcomes big hit

Most of Purdy's big day came after an injury scare.

Late in the second quarter, Purdy unloaded a pass to fullback Kyle Juszczyk right before he was hit by linebacker Dennis Gardeck. The pass was complete, but Purdy was hit as he threw and didn't get up.

He went off the field under his own power but straight to the medical tent to be evaluated for a possible concussion. He was back a few plays later, and didn't seem affected by the big hit as he carved up Arizona's defense.

There are three weeks left in the season and the MVP race has been changing every week. This will be Purdy's week to lead the field. One bad game, especially if it's the same week as Allen goes off or Prescott has a big performance, and Purdy could fall behind in the race. There's probably some bias against a seventh-round pick the league's MVP, which is why you hear a lot more praise to go Purdy's supporting cast than you do for other successful quarterbacks.

But for the past decade-plus, the NFL MVP has gone to a quarterback with the best numbers from a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Purdy is three good games and three 49ers wins from being the most obvious candidate based on that criteria.