Advertisement

Breaking down the final 4 teams in the AFC playoff field

glenn erby
·5 min read

The divisional round matchups are set and ready to begin.

The Texans will travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in the AFC, while the Chiefs will head to Buffalo to face the Bills. On the NFC side, the Packers will face the 49ers in San Francisco, and the Lions will host the Buccaneers after Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia on Monday night.

With the week of preparation completed, we can look ahead to the divisional round schedule, including the first postseason games for the Niners and the Ravens, who each had a bye.

We’re breaking down the final four teams in the AFC playoff field to prepare you for the Saturday and Sunday slate.

(1) Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore gave an early preview of its No. 1 scoring defense (16.5) in a Week 1 meeting with the Texans.

The host Ravens won 25-9, holding Houston to 268 yards, while Lamar Jackson had two turnovers and 169 yards passing in his first game action in almost a year.  The 78.0 passer rating in C.J. Stroud’s NFL debut for Houston was his second-lowest of the season.

Pressure is on Jackson, who is 1-3 in playoff games and 0-2 at home.

Jackson is the leading candidate for NFL MVP and will start his first postseason game since the 2020 season. Jackson was injured and missed Baltimore’s lone playoff game last season,

The 2023 Ravens’ defense finished sixth in EPA per play (minus-0.1) among all teams over the past ten seasons. With all its simulated pressure that seems to create sack opportunities constantly, Baltimore’s incredible defense gives the Ravens a great chance against anyone.

Baltimore has a league-high 31 takeaways.

(2) Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is 3-3 versus the Chiefs, but Mahomes is 2-0 in playoff games, including the 2021 divisional game in which Buffalo blew a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left.

Since Week 16, more than two thirds of the targets in Buffalo’s passing game have gone to five other receiving targets in the passing game not named Diggs. Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Khalil Shakir have been the most frequently used in that group as they’ve accounted for 23 and 16 percent of the targets over that four-game span.

Khalil Shakir finished the season number one among receivers with an 87.5 percent catch rate. Dalton Kincaid finished fifth among tight ends with a 78.4 percent catch rate, and James Cook finished 10th among running backs with an 82.8 percent catch rate.

The Bills and the Chiefs hold the two longest active streaks of seasons with at least ten wins—Kansas City has six straight seasons of 10 wins, and the Bills have five consecutive seasons.

Allen (24) and Mahomes (26) are the only two quarterbacks with at least 24 total touchdowns in their first nine playoff games. In Allen’s nine career playoff appearances, he’s averaged 2.7 total touchdowns per game, 281.9 passing yards per game, 336.4 offensive yards per game (most in NFL history), and has a 101.6 passer rating.

Buffalo’s defense finished the regular season ranked top 10 in sacks and quarterback hits—54 sacks (4th most) and 110 quarterback hits (6th most). Since 2020, in home playoff games, Buffalo’s defense has been challenging to play against as they’ve allowed just a 75.6 passer rating (3rd over that span), totaled seven takeaways (tied for 2nd most), 13 sacks (3rd) and 34 quarterback hits (2nd).

(3) Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes played efficiently on the road this season, completing 69.7% of his pass attempts. And he is 38-11 on the road in the regular season for his career, the most wins by any QB in their first 50 road starts since 1950, per ESPN Stats &Information. But Mahomes also had eight interceptions in games away from Arrowhead in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are 3-3 versus each other, but Mahomes is 2-0 in playoff games, including the 2021 divisional game in which Buffalo blew a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left.

In Mahomes’ 15 playoff games, the QB has also averaged 2.7 total touchdowns per game, 289.7 passing yards per game, 318 offensive yards per game (2nd most in NFL history), and has a 105.7 passer rating.

The Chiefs averaged 21.82 points per game (15th) during the regular season.

Mahomes finished the regular season top 10 in passing touchdowns (27), completion percentage (67.2%), and passing yards (4,183).

Pacheco led the Chiefs with 935 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Tight end Travis Kelce (984 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns) and wide receiver Rashee Rice (938 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns) led Chiefs pass catchers.

(4) Houston Texans

Since Week 16, C.J. Stroud ranks third in QBR, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love.

Houston, the No. 4 seed, has a league-low 14 giveaways.

Green Bay QB Jordan Love and Stroud each posted a 157.2 passer rating last week — the highest ever in an NFL playoff debut (minimum 20 attempts).

Story originally appeared on Ravens Wire