Breaking down Chiefs’ playoff scenarios for the wild-card round
The Chiefs made things a little more interesting for the rest of the AFC after falling to the Bengals in Week 17. With one week to go in the regular season, Kansas City currently holds the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff race with the potential to still get the No. 1 seed.
Given the Chiefs’ current situation, there are many potential opponents for them in the wild-card round should they fail to take the No. 1 seed in Week 18. Below we’re going to go over the scenarios for each one.
Games to watch
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Before diving into the scenarios, it’s important to highlight which games are important for the Chiefs in Week 18. There are eight games for Chiefs fans to keep an eye on (betting lines in parentheses via Tipico):
Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Broncos | 3:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Jan. 8
Bengals vs. Browns (-2.5) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Steelers vs. Ravens (-4.5) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Colts (-15.5) vs. Jaguars | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Titans (-10.5) vs. Texans | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Jets vs. Bills (-16.5) | 3:25 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins | 3:25 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Raiders | 7:20 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 9
Getting the No. 1 seed
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
For the Chiefs to get the No. 1 seed, two things must happen:
Chiefs must beat the Broncos.
Texans must beat the Titans.
If that happens, the Chiefs will have a bye in the wild-card round. They would then play the lowest-remaining seed in the divisional round.
Getting the No. 2, 3 or 4 seed
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
If the Chiefs do not get the No. 1 seed, they can clinch the No. 2 seed by defeating the Broncos. The Chiefs could get the No. 2 seed by losing as well, but they would need the Bengals, Bills and Patriots to lose.
The Chiefs would get the No. 3 or 4 seed with a loss to the Broncos and a win by either the Bengals, Bills or Patriots.
Potential Chiefs opponents in the wild-card round
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
There are seven potential opponents for the Chiefs in the wild-card round. They are:
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Since there are eight games that can affect who the Chiefs play in the wild-card round, there are 256 possible outcomes — not including ties. That’s a lot, obviously, but I have compiled all 256 possible outcomes in a sheet which you can view here.
For those who don’t want to go over such a daunting chart: we don’t blame you. Instead, let’s highlight some of the more likely scenarios that could happen.
Baltimore Ravens
AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Odds: 4 out of 256 scenarios, or 1.56%
This is the rarest scenario for the Chiefs. The Chiefs could play the Ravens if:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Ravens beat Steelers
Patriots beat Dolphins
Raiders beat Chargers
Jaguars beat Colts
This scenario requires two underdogs to win: the Jaguars and Raiders. It’s not impossible, but it seems like a long shot.
Buffalo Bills
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Odds: 16 out of 256 scenarios, or 6.25%
The Bills are the second-least likely opponent for the Chiefs mathematically. The Chiefs could play the Bills if:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Patriots beat Dolphins
Jets beat Bills
Colts beat Jaguars
This scenario only requires one underdog to win, but it would be a big upset for the Jets to beat the Bills. For that reason it seems unlikely, but given the NFL’s parity it’s surely not impossible.
Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 34 out of 256 scenarios, or 13.28%
The Colts are one of the more plausible opponents for the Chiefs mathematically, but there’s a catch: it’s much more likely for them to be K.C.’s opponent if the Chiefs lose to Denver.
There is, however, a scenario where the Chiefs and Colts could face-off following a Chiefs win in Week 18. That scenario is:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Raiders beat Chargers
Patriots beat Dolphins
Bills beat Jets
Colts beat Jaguars
The above scenario only requires one underdog to win: the Raiders. Given the competitive nature between the Raiders and Chargers as division rivals, it doesn’t seem like a long shot for Vegas to get the win on Sunday Night Football.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 34 out of 256 scenarios, or 13.28%
The Raiders and Colts have pretty similar odds, numbers-wise. One scenario of note for the Raiders is:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Chargers beat Raiders
Ravens beat Steelers
Jaguars beat Colts
The funny thing about this scenario is it would actually require the Raiders to lose in order to face the Chiefs. Of course, it would require a Jaguars win, too, which is a tough sell.
There’s also a funny scenario:
Here's something totally bonkers: If the Colts lose to the Jaguars Sunday, the Raiders and Chargers would both get in with a tie. Literally, there would be no motivation for either team to do anything other than kneel it out 15 times each.
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) January 3, 2022
While true, it’s doubtful that two division rivals would agree to a tie. However, if their matchup did go deep into overtime, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either team play for the tie if things go sideways.
Los Angeles Chargers
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 36 out of 256 scenarios, or 14.06%
To me, the Chargers seem like the most likely scenario for the Chiefs in the wild-card round. Several scenarios exist to make this happen, but the most simple one is:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Chargers beat Raiders
Colts beat Jaguars
Bills beat Jets OR Patriots beat Dolphins, but not both
All the winners in this scenario are favored to win — some heavily so. A third game between the Chiefs and Chargers this season would be an exciting one given that their other two matchups were each decided by six points.
New England Patriots
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 48 out of 256 scenarios, or 18.75%
Mathematically, this is the most likely scenario. Realistically, it’s not because most of its scenarios require the Chiefs to lose to Denver. Still, there is a notable scenario that includes a Chiefs win:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Dolphins beat Patriots
Raiders beat Chargers
Colts beat Jaguars
This requires an underdog — the Dolphins — to win. That may seem like a long shot to some, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Dolphins took out the Patriots to close the season…
Pittsburgh Steelers
AP Photo/Ed Zurga
Odds: 20 out of 256 scenarios, or 7.81%
Pittsburgh is probably the most preferred opponent for Chiefs fans after K.C. dominated the Steelers 36-10 in Week 16. This one is a tough sell, though, because it requires these two things to happen:
Steelers beat Ravens
Jaguars beat Colts
We’ve talked about this already, but the Jaguars beating the Colts seems unlikely. However, say the above happens. Then what? Well, the Chiefs would play the Steelers if:
Chiefs beat Broncos
Titans beat Texans
Or:
Broncos beat Chiefs
Dolphins beat Patriots
Jets beat Bills
Browns beat Bengals
So yeah. This one gets a little complex.
1
1