Breaking down Chiefs’ playoff scenarios for the wild-card round
With one more week to go in the NFL regular season, the Chiefs are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Though the circumstances are unfortunate, the Chiefs’ path to the No. 1 seed has become much easier with Week 17’s Bills-Bengals matchup ruled a no-contest by the NFL. This ruling means the Chiefs just need a Week 18 win to earn a bye; however, several scenarios still exist for the Chiefs to play in the wild-card round.
I put together a spreadsheet that notes all 128 AFC scenarios for Week 18, with the Texans-Colts game not included since its outcome has no effect on seeding. Here is a list of who the Chiefs could play in the wild-card round:
Opponent | # of scenarios | Probability* |
Bye | 96 | 82.99% |
Dolphins | 16 | 8.85% |
Jaguars | 4 | 0.98% |
Patriots | 4 | 2.78% |
Steelers | 8 | 4.41% |
A bye is the most likely outcome for the Chiefs, but there are quite a few different scenarios that lead to that outcome. Let’s break that down and analyze how the Chiefs could face the other opponents listed above.
*Probabilities based on predictions from FiveThirtyEight.com.
Current AFC standings
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Playoff seeds
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) [AFC West winner]
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3) [AFC East winner]
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) [AFC North leader]
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) [AFC South leader]
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) [wild card]
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) [wild card]
7. New England Patriots (8-8) [wild card]
In the hunt
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
10. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Eliminated
New York Jets (7-9)
Cleveland Browns (7-9)
Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1)
Denver Broncos (4-12)
Houston Texans (2-13-1)
Games to watch
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There are seven games in Week 18 that could affect who the Chiefs play in the wild-card round (betting lines from Tipico updated at publishing):
Chiefs (-9.5) at Raiders | 3:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Jan. 7
Titans at Jaguars (-6.5) | 7:15 p.m. CT on Saturday, Jan. 7
Browns at Steelers (-2.5) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 8
Ravens at Bengals (-7) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 8
Patriots at Bills (-7) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 8
Jets at Dolphins (-2.5) | Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 8
Chargers at Broncos (-3) | 3:25 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 8
Getting the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye
Jay Biggerstaff -USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 96 out of 128 scenarios, or 75%
FiveThirtyEight probability: 82.99%
The most straightforward way for the Chiefs to take the No. 1 seed is to beat the Raiders in Week 18. However, they could lose and still get the 1 seed. Here’s how:
Raiders beat Chiefs + Patriots beat Bills
Patriots-Bills will be played Sunday while the Chiefs play Saturday, so the Chiefs will need to focus on beating the Raiders in Week 18 and let the rest of the scenarios play out.
2 seed vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 4 out of 128 scenarios, or 3.13%
FiveThirtyEight probability: 0.98%
There’s a rare scenario where the Jaguars could still get into the playoffs as a 7 seed even after failing to win the AFC South. They could potentially play the No. 2 seed Chiefs if the dominoes fall correctly. Here’s what needs to happen for Chiefs vs. Jaguars to occur:
Raiders beat Chiefs + Bills beat Patriots + Jets beat Dolphins + Browns beat Steelers + Titans beat Jaguars
This is the least likely matchup based on the number of scenarios and FiveThirtyEight probabilities.
2 seed vs. Miami Dolphins
Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Odds: 16 out of 128 scenarios, or 12.50%
FiveThirtyEight probability: 8.85%
Chiefs vs. Dolphins is the most likely scenario for the Chiefs if they fall to the 2 seed. Here’s how to get there:
Raiders beat Chiefs + Bills beat Patriots + Dolphins beat Jets
Of course, this outcome requires the Raiders to beat the Chiefs, which is improbable on paper. However, the Chiefs only beat the Raiders by one point earlier this season and AFC West games are close more often than not. If the Chiefs slip up against Vegas, a wild-card matchup against Miami seems like a solid bet.
2 seed vs. New England Patriots
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Odds: 4 out of 128 scenarios, or 3.13%
FiveThirtyEight probability: 2.78%
This is similar to the Jaguars outcome, with one difference — it requires the Jaguars to beat the Titans. Here’s the scenario:
Raiders beat Chiefs + Bills beat Patriots + Jets beat Dolphins + Browns beat Steelers + Jaguars beat Titans
Slightly more probable than the Jaguars outcome, but still a long shot.
2 seed vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Odds: 8 out of 128 scenarios, or 6.25%
FiveThirtyEight probability: 4.41%
Also a long shot, this outcome requires a Chiefs Week 18 loss as well:
Raiders beat Chiefs + Bills beat Patriots + Jets beat Dolphins + Steelers beat Browns
The Steelers are slightly favored to beat the Browns which makes this more probable than the Jaguars or Patriots outcomes on paper, but the Steelers lost to the Browns earlier this season so it’s tough to say whether they can beat them in Week 18.
